Understanding Price Action by Chris Capre

What MT4 platform is set to NYSE close? The one I use from AxiTrader is set 1 hour after session close, I think it makes sense if were looking at the same charts.

:slight_smile:

FX Pro - which is set to european midnight which is also NY session close.

Pepperstone as well.

Kind Regards,
CC

Cheers mate, Iā€™ll download it right now.

:slight_smile:

Hello Traders,

More aggressive selling on the EURUSD, and I expect this to continue, so will stick with the mantra of looking to sell on rallies.

One pair that seems interesting is the GBPJPY which has formed an ā€œioiā€ pattern, which is an inside bar, followed by an outside bar, and then another inside bar. These tend to be counter-trend breakout patterns, but being short JPY pairs hasnā€™t been the best trades as of late, so Iā€™ll watch both ends of the farm here, with the 145 being the upside level for a key break for bulls, while 142 will be the downside for the bears. Any break of these levels will likely trigger some follow up buying/selling, so watch for intraday price action signals here.


Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Chris, I was lucky enough to get a EU short yesterday and still holding the pair. Any idea on future levels ?


Hello Perry,

For EU am watching the intraday high, and also 1.3050 to get short so watching for price action signals there.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Hello Traders,

Am sticking with the downtrend on the EURUSD, which in the month of march has only had one bull close followed by another, so will look to sell rallies towards the downward sloping channel to rejoin the down trend.


Downward sloping channels, although they show a reduction in the selling speed, generally are not the beginnings of a bullish reversal. Minimally weā€™d need a former swing high taken out by a counter-trend impulsive move (perhaps around 1.3150) so until this happens, Iā€™ll look to sell the Euro on rallies.

Also looking to get long JPY pairs on any retracements into support to rejoin their uptrends.

Good hunting for today.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

How can i join your PA teaching and the community

Hello Khanbilalabid,

I just sent you a message on your message board as I cannot post my contact info here, but if you go to my site, you can leave a comment on this daily signal setup with your email, and iā€™ll respond in full.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Did my weekend analysis right now, I got a bearish pin bar on the GBPUSD daily that passes all my filters, but I also have a bullish pinbar on the GBPUSD 4 Hour which passes all my filters for a high probability tradeā€¦

When I look at the 1 hour for clarification, I got mixed signals with my filtersā€¦

In this sort of scenario, does the higher timeframe ā€œwinā€?

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Cheers.

ApexPredator.

FXpro is normally NY close, but as of last week they are 1hr behind or close 1hr later than NY close charts. The charts changed last week with daylight savings changes and normally Fxpro changes with this, but they have not made the change yet so their daily candle and 4hr candles are closing 1hr later than the true Ny close providers.

Not to worry though as there are a ton that actually did change over and as you said these include Pepperstone, FXDD, Go markets etc

Fxpro will make the change soon enough, it is normally around three weeks but until then their candles are out.

Sometimes I also have the same confusion when I use different time frames. If I am not mistaken Chris commented on the same issue through one of his articles. At the moment I am considering higher time frames to check the direction and use smaller time frames to get the much better signal.

Hello AP,

Itā€™s hard for me to comment on this because I do not know how you use your systems and what you are looking to do with them.

But it really comes down to price action and context. The key is to learn how to read trends, the types of trends, and the transitions which often mark trends. When you can do this, then you can determine which is the higher probability signal, but the higher time frame is not always a default better signal.

Food for thought.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Haha. I guess its something that happens every now and then to all of us, well atm it seems as though GBPUSD was accurately predicted on the 4 hour chart. Gonna have to wait a bit to see though.

Personally, I didnt trade the GBPUSD today, I wanted to see how things will turn outā€¦ Maybe I have another filter: If the 4 hour and Daily are conflicting, then dont trade either!

Sometimes, to win in the market, you just have to avoid losing in the market, that way your ahead of most traders anyway!

Just the views of a keen young trader looking to make it in this businessā€¦

:slight_smile:

Hello AP,

Iā€™m actually not saying mark the trends for HH/HLā€™s and look for the one that is more defined. Iā€™m talking about a completely different way of viewing trends and then using that to determine which is the more likely setup.

And just because D and 4H are not in alignment, doesnā€™t mean there isnā€™t a good trade. Sometimes they will conflict, but one will give a better signal than the other.

However, ā€˜avoiding lossesā€™ I think is a misunderstanding about trading. Losses are part of the game, and if you play your edge out, losses will continue to be a part of trading, but also bring you closer to your next win and edge playing out.

You cannot ā€˜avoidā€™ losses, and you have to understand that trading is about thinking in probabilities. This is something most beginning traders miss. They rationalize not taking a setup to ā€˜avoidā€™ a loss, when in reality, they are passing up a profitable edge, even though the next trade may be a loss.

Food for thought, but if you really understand trading, youā€™ll start to look at trading in a completely different way.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Those are some important principles youā€™ve reminded me of! If you have an edge, you have to play it out over a long enough series of trades in order for it to be effective!

Also, I wouldnt consider myself a beginner, 2+ years exp. baby! :smiley:

And by looking at trends differently I think you mean impulsive vs corrective moves, and looking at the order flow of the scenario.

But as I said before, some important principles youā€™ve reminded me of (thats why your the hedge fund manager and not me).

Thanks again Chrisā€¦ Im going to have to do some reflection about thisā€¦

:slight_smile:

Well 2+ years is still quite small imo, but its a good start. Your out of the freshman stage, and into the sophomore game.

But in terms of the trends, Iā€™m also talking beyond the impulsive and corrective moves as that is just the base model. Iā€™m still talking about something different.

Glad to hear though you are re-thinking things in terms of edge and not ā€˜avoidingā€™ losses.

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre

Haha, sophomore game? Well, my promise to you is that I wont stop learning and trading, until im at the ā€œCapreā€ level!

Financially, im not ready to join your course ATM. But thats something I plan on doing eventually, along with the Ichimoku.

And Im not going to guess anymore about what to be looking for in a trend! Impulsive v Corrective and Order Flow with confluent levels is all I got haha!

But yeah defo. Happy trading dude!

:slight_smile:

Hello Traders,

With the Cyprus Hill event (yes, Iā€™m old), Iā€™m expecting Euros to be sold into any rallies up to resistance, so Iā€™ll look for price action signals around 1.3000 and 1.3050, to get short targeting 1.2900 and possibly a break lower towards 1.2700 (chart below).


Also, last week I discussed the EURUSD downward sloping channel setup selling at the top of the channel around 1.3100. The pair went to 1.3107, and then sold off about 40 pips, then gapā€™d down about another 150. Many of the price action students I work with traded this as it was discussed heavily, so hopefully you profited as well.

And for the record, here is my actual trade below from the broker chart below.


Good hunting for today!

Kind Regards,
Chris Capre