Hello Chris,
You will need to understand how the price action works and on what rates you can say that a particular currency pair is over sold or overbought as this comes with experience only 
Hello Dominator,
Just curious, are you trying to give me a lesson in price action, or are you sharing this to others?
Reason I ask is;
a) overbought/oversold are misused terms when it comes to the order flow of currencies that have tremendous liquidity, and where prices are derived more from an auction process - where oversold/bought rarely comes into play
b) I do share how the price action works, particularly from an order flow perspective, and considering iāve been doing this for 13+ years now, managing funds, working for the broker, and seeing every side of the industry - I feel quite confident I have the experience and understand how the price action works.
So there seems to be a confusion here, perhaps you can share more.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
The price action is shaping up to make this an interesting week.
I think the first pairs youāll want to look at for this week will be the JPY pairs, particularly the EURJPY and GBPJPY which sold off heavily to end last week. For those closely following this thread, I actually posted about this here hours ahead of time.
EURJPY
Looking at the chart below, we can see the selling on late Friday took out the last two days lows (almost a third), which has likely tripped medium term stops from the bulls. The overall trend is still well into place, so Iāll look for price action signals at 128.51 and 127.80 (former yearly high) to rejoin the trend. Only a break below 124.42 will damage the medium term bull trend.
Gold - Breaking Bad Edition
How can you not talk about Gold which got monkey-hammered last week, losing over $75 on Friday alone. The key was the large breakout bar which tripped medium term stops from bulls, by breaking below the $1520 multi-year support level.
You may see a short term pop this week, but consider these rallies to get short for a much larger move down, as the PM could be headed for $1433 and perhaps much lower before finding a base.
Bottoms after moves like this are rarely formed in a day, and often take weeks, perhaps months, so do not worry about catching a falling knife here. It will show signs of a bottom well before it actually does, so look for primarily shorts till we see some stronger basing, which may be a while.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Haha, I think the self proclaimed āexpertsā I was talking about are here to spoil the party already!
Haha, just kidding.
Hi Chris, Iām not familiar with forum etiquette so sorry for breaking the rules.
Iāve deleted the link as requested.
Cheers
Pete
Regarding Gold, What do you think best level would be to go long?
Thanks
P.S - I looked at the Gold 4hr chart.It clearly shows that pin bar but then continue the major trend (bearish).Can someone explain how we do trade without these kind of āfalseā signals?
Hello Flashmark,
First question - why would you be looking to go long Gold at these moments? Itās just sold off almost $200 in the last few days. Why wouldnāt you be trying to trade with trend, instead of counter-trend, which is always a lower probability/more difficult trade?
The with-trend entries are making far more money than the counter-trend, so just curious why you are trying to trade such a strong trending move in the opposite direction?
Looking forward to your response.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Pete,
No worries, sometimes its hard to see all the rules in this forum (which are on the first post), but I appreciate your candor.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
WTI Crude Oil is showing some signs of a potential intra-day bottom. If $88.00 can withhold the next test, then a likely short term bottom setup is available, targeting $89.50ish so watch for intra-day price action signals here.
Gold meanwhile is still a sell on rallies as there was a 400 ton order that went through on Friday, which is literally 15% of all yearly minding production, so quite a huge order.
This has thus tripped medium/long term stops, so the pressure will likely remain for some time, with only brief reprieves.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hi Chris, what do u use to predict EURJPY rising to 134?
Hello Nilnuk,
Take a look at the weekly charts.
Anytime there is a move as large as this, you have to step back and look at the weekly charts since we are talking multi-year levels being taken out.
I actually suspect the JPY will weaken much further vs. most currencies across the board long term.
Hope this helps.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Oh I wish I had a live account today with gold/ silver bombing. How long will the potential to short Gold last for do you think, would it be days or weeks/ The MB trading tools point to a monthly down trend.
Iām still on demo account, but do you think it would be good to open a live account to take stand out opportunities alongside still demoing most of the time?
thanks Scott
Hello Scott,
Yes, a good day to have a live account. Well if you read my commentary earlier on gold, bottoms rarely form in a flash, and after drops like this, take a long time. So I suspect there is probably more in store as based on my comments earlier.
But in terms of opening a live acct, unless you have a strategy to trade it, iād refrain from chasing movement or any opportunity just because its moving hard. First learn how to trade it, then start looking at opportunities to get in.
If you have one, then sure, slowly work your way in. But if not, then Iād just practice for now, as I expect this to only be the beginning of a lot of good opportunities in the coming days/weeks/months.
Hope this helps.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Chris,
I would appreciate your follow up on EUR/JPY pair today. I am trying to understand if there were any PA signals at 128.51 or 127.80?
I am a huge fan of your trading method and have been following your posts for some time now.
Thanks.
Hello Dparik,
Are you wondering if there were long or short signals at those levels?
Let me know so I can gauge what you are saying correctly.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
I love the smell of heavy selling in the morninā.
Sticking with the trend, Gold got absolutely bloodied every which way but loose today, having its biggest losing day in over 30 years.
The PM literally opened to some massive selling once Shanghai opened, following up from the 400 tonnes of selling on Friday that tripped all the major stops (weekly chart below as we have to go back far to see the multi-year levels we are coming up on).
Looking for pullbacks would have left you missing most of the move, so trading breakouts was the play today other than the market open breakout pullback setup.
With the selling being so large, Iām not expecting anyone to be willing to step in front of this, so Iāll look to sell on any corrective pullbacks, targeting $1309 and $1260 as Iām expecting this to go much further than people expect, so make sure not to pull the trigger too early on taking profits, as you can make a lot of money during these types of trends.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hi all,
I am in a quandary as how to get in w/ the trend on the yen pairs. It bounced hard 100 + pips leaving a long tail on the process. I am not so sure where and how to get in now where my sell stop of between 30-40 pips would fit in.
Meanwhile, I am also watching NZD/USD for a possible short at around 8473 for a potential of almost 5:1 r&r. Chart below:
Thank you a lot Chris for I have learned so much from your teachings on how to read the chart/price action from an order flow perspective.
Kudos to you.
Actually I was looking for short term bull trend. But it wasnāt happened in my way.
How do we find botom of these kind of rally to get into long?
thanks
Hello Chris, Apex & Everyone,
Back After long weekend. Looks like we have new members here. Thatās great. Hope you guys doing well.
This is such a time that we follow the trend and stick by it. meanwhile the DJ went 270 points to the downside. So guess we cant go long on the yellow metal until the fundamentals say otherwise and the price complies.