Chris,
Thanks for the analysis. Never seen a quick GOLD drop like this one over the last few months. Unfortunately missed it. Waiting for possible pullbacks to get into the rally. Hope you guys took some.
Flashmark,
In my opinion you should not try to catch the bottoms or tops as we donāt know whether the market is going to reverse or continue the current trend. As Chris suggested be with the trend always. Counter trend trades are risky and low probability of success. The trend is your friend. Good luck
Been following this thread since November of last year. Iāve decided to participate in the forum to develop the knowledge that I acquired here and from 2ndSkiesForex.
Also, to give my props to Chris.
Hello bull4ace,
Good to see new guys here to keep this thread more alive. I also agree with you about 02ndskiesforex.Hell lot of valuable things there for newbies and also for price action lovers.
well all newbies should land here if they are interested in price action trading.
Personally I am quite an experienced trader but this is one of the threads that I have to
read having been a student of the PA class.
Happy trading fellows.
Grix
Thanks for the warm reception guys.
It gives me a sense of belonging 
Are you up w/ anything today?
Yes. I was wondering if there were any long or short signals at those levels.
Thanks.
Hello Bull4ace,
Good to have you aboard and am glad you are enjoying the thread.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Dparik,
Well using the 4hr chart, price sold off from 131 - 128.56 with 6 bear candles and 1 bull, so generally these are not my favorite conditions to be buying. It then formed a small inside bar, then broke below 128.56, and consolidated between 128.56 adn 127.80. The consolidation again isnāt my favorite for buying as there was no real significant change where the buyers were overwhelming the sellers, so since sellers are in control short term, best bet is theyād likely maintain control.
And they did, breaking below 127.80. I had another system also give me a short signal around 128.45 so that + the PA was not telling me to buy at that moment. However, the intra-day rejection from 125 was quite strong, and showed buyers were taking over from sellers, so there was some opportunities here, and I switched to long around 126, recently exiting.
So hopefully this gives you some good ideas on how to read the PA in real time.
Try not to get stuck on patterns by themselves, like pin bars, inside bars, or engulfing bars. Those are meaningless without the understanding of the context, price action and order flow around them. So learn the models to read price action, order flow, and trends, and you will find yourself understanding when to get in and how.
Hope this helps.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Flashback,
I think if your mindset is looking for short term bull trends, while there is such a strong bear trend where people who are trading with trend are making a ton of money, while those looking for short term bull trends are getting killed, I think unless you are really skilled at reading price action, timing, and understand how trends work, with hundreds, if not thousands of counter-trend trades behind you, that looking for CT trades is not the best idea.
As a whole, they are a lesser probability setup since you are going against the order flow. That is not to say you cannot profit from them, but it takes a lot of skill to read trends, and price action in real time to understand when the transitions and changes are happening.
So the answer to your question is above if you want to trade counter-trend, but the bigger question should be why arenāt, or werenāt you looking to trade with trend?
Food for thought, but I hope this helps give you some ideas.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Cheers Chris,thanks, I am applying your 20 EMA with candle counting technique . Iām getting to grips with reading the candle formations slowly.Is it best to go with the direction of the weekly candle? Iām experimenting with working off the daily charts where previously I was 1H&30M.
I am really struggling with where to put the stop loss on the daily charts, my risk to reward ratio is wrong and canāt find a balance to allow for the days movement, and not opening the trade up to substantial losses if the trade reverses overnight for example. Is there a technique/formula to set a sensible stop loss say using the info off the last daily candle. I did see in one of your vids something about this, but i didnāt quite understand it ?
It is frustrating and probably much too soon to go with live money like you say, but with the gold silver yesterday I did the technical and fundamentals and entered and exited the trade well. Of course the temptation of having a live account there may open me up to mistakes where I get it wrong which will cost.
Thanks again
Hello Chris!
First I want to say I am very happy to have found this topic here in the community and also baby pips to have found this forum, because it is very educational and very good back tips for those just starting out.
One thing I wanted to ask about the price action is dealing with on daily charts (D1), you can open a position after being with the correct settings and after confirmation, and keep it for two or more days and only after the trend begin to weaken then I close that position?
Thus it is as if the long position trades more, what do you think about this? Itās too risky? Or give them to win more pips so with only one position to be opening and closing positions every day and so do not enjoy all the pips of the trend?
I am newbie and still use system trends with three moving averages, 30, 50 and 100, levels of support and resistance to learn the price action analysis, as candlesticks and pin bar inside bar and try to negotiate with longer maturities, 4h and D1 , most still prefer the more D1. Very simple and easy, I took a course with a forex trader here in Brazil even showed me this system.
What do you think about it Chris? Have any advice for me that I operate with D1 time-frame?
Hey mate, good to have you back. Hope all is well.
Wow, theres been a lot of activity here recentlyā¦ Heres my take on what people here are talking about:
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I personally only trade on the daily timeframe for reversals, if theres a with trend move on the daily, then you will get a better entry on the 4 hour more often then not. Also, on the 4 hour I get better risk reward multiples, but thats for my strategies and may not be the case for you.
-
trading reversals are actually my most profitable trades, maybe because I filter my trades to ensure that I have a high probability signal.
Its typical to get around 5:1 risk reward on a reversal (even more sometimes). Whereas my trend trades are managed differently, so I achieve much less risk multiples. I think its important to know how to trade both with and counter trend.
So yeah, I guess it depends on how you tradeā¦ But thats my 2 pips on whats being discussed here.
Happy trading.
AP.
Hello Scott,
I do not think you need the weekly to see the overall direction as this can be grasped from the daily quite easily.
In terms of the SL, this really depends upon the system and the nature of the system. Each system/strategy should have an SL and TP built into it, so if you are not trading a strategy/system at the moment, then determining and SL will have to be done using your price action skills. And if your ability to read price action, along with key levels, is not experienced or sharp - then this will be quite difficult imo.
I will say a few things about SLās;
- They should be placed on the other side of support/resistance levels as a whole
- They should be placed where the MARKET SHOULD NOT GO if your trade idea is correct.
So hopefully this gives you some good ideas to start with. Along those lines, feel free to check out the free articles on my site which has a lot of systems and methods that talk about SLās.
And yes, based on all you said, Iād suggest more practice time before going live. Better to be more prepared when going live, then to be unprepared and not ready on the racetrack. There is no rush as the market will make good moves tomorrow or the next day that you can profit from - so learn well first, focus on process, and things will develop.
I hope this helps.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello BrazilianForex,
Where in Brasil you from as I lived in S.A for some time and spent some time in Brasil?
But thanks for the positive comments and good to have you hear as well.
As to your first question, Iām not sure I totally understand regarding the D1 charts and holding a position - could you clarify a bit for me?
But as to using the daily time frame, I think by itself is a little limited and you will miss a lot of high quality setups that form every day - even on the 4hr. Iād suggest adding a companion time frame, perhaps 4H to give you a slightly different perspective and a little more nuance.
But if you can give me more feedback and clarity around your question - that will help me understand it better and give you a more complete answer.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hello Traders,
With the commodities getting hit over the head the last few days, some short covering is to be expected, and we got that today. The biggest push-back came from Crude Oil, which has seen almost a $3 bounce off $86. You will notice the 4hr pin bar which actually was a composite of another intraday price action signal.
Regardless, there is some upward legs to this, so the first challenge is coming just ahead at $89.42 which is the March swing lows, so bears looking to rejoin the trend can look for price action signals here. Bulls meanwhile can look for corrective pullbacks into $87 to get back long if the price action shows good signals there.
Gold/Silver
Iām still looking for pullback shorts on the PMās so will wait for higher levels before getting short again, unless I see a massive pushback form the bulls, Iām still bearish.
Kind Regards,
Chris Capre
Hi all,
I would like to share a little about myself. I have been in the forex market for about 3 years now. Needless to say, I have studied tons of information from different sources. I have come across w/ teachings on support and resistance, price actions, order flow, market profile; volume spread analysis, supply and demand, and others. Perhaps the good thing I did was to stick it out w/ price action trading and did away w/ any indis (except for fibs and moving averages).
I learned valuable knowledge from them but never got to a point where I can say w/ confidence and conviction that I have totally understood how the market works (thru chart reading) and that I can be in it, stay in it, and be profitable in it.
Chris teachings are the final piece of the puzzle.
You can tell by the way he presented his ideas that it comes from his deep knowledge of the market. Not to mention that they are easy to digest. He covered a wide area of subject critical to oneās survival. In short, newbees (I still consider myself as one until I earn and keep those precious pips on a CONSISTENT basis) has a forex mentor, and itās FREE! If I only have the means right now to enroll in his courses.
After three years in the game, I do realize that in order to succeed in any field of endeavor, most especially forex trading, one must have a mentor.
As of the moment, I am sharpening my new-found abilities in identifying key levels, understanding what the chart is communicating thru price actions and the order flow behind it.
Iām going to need a lot of practice until I will be able to become a profitable trader but I consciously and sub-consciously know that I am not very far from being one.
Again, my salute to you Chris.
Update on the NZD/USD pair I am currently watching:
I didnāt quite like how price managed to get to 8473, 2 blue candles closing on top. I decided to place my sell POs at 0.8505 sensing that, should price continue to go down, it is going to touch the 20ema. The zone from 0.8495 ā 0.8513, w/c includes the 20ema inside looked like to me a solid ceiling for the bulls to penetrate.
Buy stop on this one is @ 0.8525 (20 pips). And I wonāt move it till price get past the 0.8445 level.
Chart below.
Hello Bull,
Very interesting story and wish you a luck in trading.
Traders have different perspectives about the mentors . Of course anyone can success without a mentor. In my opinion it is really hard for a newbie to get into the right track before spending a lot of money and wasting about 02 - 03 years. But with a good mentor like Chris learn to trade forex is very efficient in terms of time and money.