Dow Index
Since the market got the green light from Bernanke and the QEinfinity policy, the Dow Index cleared past the yearly highs and went on a 350pt run in a few days. However, in the last six, the has consolidated forming a series of overlapping bars between the 13653 and 13495 levels.
Although i’m not sure how much longer this range will hold since we have had three touches on each end, as long as the intraday price action looks corrective, both bulls and bears have plays at the aforementioned levels.
Medium term I favor an upside break, but sbeing in a range, you have to trade it like a range. Thus, I’ll be watching intraday price action clues for selling towards the highs around 13653 with tight stops above, and looking for buys around the 13495/13500 area until the range breaks so some potentially profitable setups here with low risk and strong reward.
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Hello Traders,
Just looking at the overall USD strength over the last few days, which to me, looks more corrective than impulsive.
Here is a chart below of what i’m looking at for the USDINX but thinking of selling just above.
Thoughts?
Hey Traders,
I’m thinking the USD doesn’t have much more to go vs. the majors and am looking at the Kiwi which has been the most resilient vs. the greenback.
Today formed a pin bar + outside bar + engulfing bar off a key role reversal level so I think any pullbacks here should (if corrective) should bring a good opportunity to long the pair.
Take a look below.
Hello Traders,
The USDINX gave a trade as suspected right off the 20ema only moving 1.3pts above it, then selling off for another 50. When we posted this signal, we suggested USD weakness is more likely, and the next day it closed lower along with further losses today.
Traders taking this play had 2 chances to take the rejection off the dynamic resistance and have now had plenty of time to lock in profits.
Anyone take advantage of this?
Hey Traders,
Just wanted to share a little price action analysis on the Gold chart:
After rejecting just shy of the $1790 level last week, Gold started to sell off and show some potential weakness and definitely some profit-taking. However, the precious metal was bought back up on the dip which formed a pin bar rejection off the 20ema and followed it up with an impressive $24 gain to end the week. I suspect the pullback into the daily 20ema wasn’t just profit-taking from all those that were long around the breakout at $1633, but also a punish the johnny-come-late players who entered this uptrend towards the highs around $1775.
With the dip being bought so aggressively, it shows the institutional players are happy to buy this on the dip so the trend is still well supported with no structural breakdown. Watch for price action pullbacks into the $1737-42 area for potential longs while bears can look to short on corrective weakness heading into $1787.
Hey Traders,
Gold has formed a daily outside bar which can be an interesting reversal signal, especially when it forms a 2-way outside bar like this one.
What is interesting is how the sell-off ensued as it has formed two pin bars suggesting the selling is being absorbed and there is buying interest here. Very interesting in front of the strong sell-off at the yearly highs. This buying up of Gold could be the pre-tense before a breakout. Interesting price action to say the least but take a look at the chart below;
I hope you enjoy this price action analysis
Looks like it has formed a triangle and is going to breakout soon.
PS, loving the Price Action analysis! Keep it coming
Hello Rippa,
Yeah, although not surprising considering the massive run up and sell off earlier in the day.
Gold is a highly manipulated instrument so one has to be careful and smart, but if you learn how to read the price action
and algos running, then there are a lot of trade opportunities.
But am glad you like the commentary and hope to continually see you here.
Kind Regards,
Chris
What do you mean by the algos running and that it is highly manipulated?
Hello Rippa,
Algos as in Algorithms by some of the largest players who use them. If you watch gold for a long period of time, you’ll be able to spot them. Takes time and training though.
In terms of manipulated, that is a conversation which could take 10pages, but just think there are people and highly powerful institutions that do not want gold to continue to gain in value. Why? Because as it goes up, the value of the dollar goes down, and the likelihood it will be replaced as a reserve currency.
Plus, if gold becomes the standard again, doesn’t that mean all the printing by the central banks becomes useless?
Food for thought but that should be enough to give you an idea.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Hey Traders,
Just landed a few hours ago from a long intercontinental flight, but wanted to show what looks like a price action squeeze happening on Gold, possibly in anticipation of the ECB or NFP which could provide the fuel for the breakout.
Take a look below and feel free to share your thoughts.
Looks like it has broken out! Where do you think it will go? I can’t see anything left for a target?
Hello Rippa,
not yet, as i said in my post on my site, there should be a shakeout of sorts
anyways, go ahead and read the article which you can find under ‘daily signals’ under forex strategies
where i give ideas and targets
hope this helps
I just read your site, good info
Thanks
Hello Traders,
Gold has continued what I call a ‘Price Action Squeeze’ over the last two days, with today forming back to back 2-way outside bars. But notice how the 20ema is carrying the price action and the 2nd 2-way outside bar formed a HL. This suggests the upside pressure is continuing so i’m expecting a breakout soon which you can see in the chart below.
When you said that there should be a shakeout of sorts, do you mean that it will sell off and trip stops and then breakout, or visa versa?
Or does it mean that it should pullback first before your next anticipated targets are hit?
Sorry if it is obvious, but I don’t quite understand?
Thanks
John
Hello Rippa,
What I mean is it should shake out weak longs before attempting a major break, which is traditionally what is meant by a shakeout.
Sorry if I didn’t comment in real time as im taking a partial vacation now.
Hope this helps
Kind Regards,
Chris
Hey Traders,
Just wanted to make some commentary about Gold and the price action to end last week;
Gold
Continuing the uptrend with a pin bar rejection off the 20ema last week, the precious metal ended the week forming an outside bar near the critical $1800 resistance area where I suspect a fair amount of stops are parked just above. The shiny metal has yet to make significant gains over the last three weeks, only slowly inching higher. However, it continues to form higher lows and be bought up on the dips, so the major trend is still in place.
Bears can look for shorts at the $1800 figure taking profits at $1790 and $1780 while bulls can look for pullbacks towards the $1755 region before entering long as the overall trend remains intact for now.
Hello Traders,
Am back now from vacation so expect a full week of commentary and updates, starting with my weekly highlights which are below;
GBPJPY
Stuck in a short term channel, the GBPJPY has had more impulsive selling than buying within this channel so am slightly more bearish than bullish. Notice the two large rejections towards the upper end of the channels with the last one forming a large pin bar setup. Traders can look for rejections at the upper end of the channel to get short while looking at short term longs around 124.00 but between the two, I’d rather sell 2 out of every three trades inside this channel.
AUDUSD
After holding the 1.0150 area last week and climbing for three straight days, the Aussie stopped dead in its tracks just shy of 1.0300 where it has formed a triple rejection there. Short term traders can look for plays in the three day range that has formed just shy of 1.0300 with the bottom around 1.0215. The rejections on the upper end of this range just below the dynamic support and 20ema are larger than the buying on the bottom suggesting selling interest is willing to hold the upside short term. If 1.0150 breaks, then 1.0100 should be under attack shortly after but last weeks price action looks like its part of a corrective bullish pullback before possibly more selling.
Hello Traders,
Spotted this inside bar setup on Gold which gives both bears and bulls some play for the short term.
Check out the commentary and chart below;
Gold
Today, Gold has continued its sell-off, losing its luster as it shed over $15 breaking a key support level at $1739. In the process, it hit an intraday low sub $1730. Before the major sell-off today, it formed three inside bars, and then started the impulsive sell-off on the break of their lows. It has since then formed another inside bar, so a pullback towards the prior swing lows might offer an selling opportunity.
Bulls on the other hand will look for a corrective pullback into the $1730 lows which is showing a strong pin bar on the 1hr chart, which is part of the longer rejection from the large bear candle and selling pressure today. This may be signaling buyers picking the metal up on the dip, so there are plays on both sides.
