Hey Traders,
The interview with fxstreet went well and we will be publishing it soon over the next week or two.
Wanted to share a trade I took on silver which was a intraday reversal/counter trend trade
generally i like to trade with trend, but when i see these setups, I take them.
When you learn how to trade price action, you can spot these great setups, make a quick profit
and move on to a with trend trade
Many of my students caught trades like this so hopefully you did as well.
GBPJPY
After a 5 day rally, the GBPJPY found resistance at 128.25 forming a pin bar rejection in the process. Although the last major swing was down and formed a LL (lower low), the last upswing formed a HH suggesting an increase in volatility. Key resistance for bears lies between 128.25-128.81 so bears can watch for price action signals here, while bulls can look for longs just sub 125 looking for at least a return back to 127 so a solid reward play there.
Dow Jones
Having its single biggest losing day in 4 mos (ironically on the anniversary of Black Friday in 1987), the Dow Jones index shed over 230+pts while forming a LH in the process. It is currently sitting just above a support level just sub 13300, but if the aggressive selling from Friday continues, we could see a drop to 13000 follow shortly after. Bears can look for breakout pullback setups below the 13300 or wait for a pullback towards 13550 but we could be seeing kinks in the armor of this uptrend since June.
Hey Traders,
Just spotted a large bullish pin bar setup on the Dow Jones with the chart below.
What do you think and would you take this trade?
Hola Traders,
Just wanted to show you a couple trades me, and some of my students took today.
The first one is on Gold, catching a with trend pullback which you can see in the chart below.
The second one is Oil, taking a counter-trend play and exiting right before it reversed.
Just some good examples of the price action trading I do and teach on a daily basis.
Hopefully you found some of these profitable setups as well.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Gold
Getting pummeled every which way but loose, Gold resumed its sell-off today, now at 6 week lows and barely holding above $1700. I am noticing how the buybacks have been getting shorter and weaker in angle each time. This would generally indicate a weakening buying or counter-trend presence. But that has also been accompanied by weaker sell-offs each time, with the latest being the weakest. This culminated in a large engulfing bar followed by an inside bar.
Perhaps now that most paper bulls are flushed out, the market will start to climb. If not, then aggressive selling should resume in the absence of paper longs. One other scenario I can imagine for the sell-off would be a large fund needing to cover for some bad positions, and started dumping Gold en masse. It doesnât quite make sense in a money printing environment, but regardless, bears can watch for intraday price action pullbacks towards $1713 and $1730 for areas to sell, while bulls can look towards $1697 and $1665 before adding longs. Short term its still bearish, but I suspect the current down-leg is weakening.
Upcoming Economic Announcements:
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 04.30EST
USD Durable Goods Orders 08.30EST
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) 10.00EST
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) 17.45EST
Hello Traders,
Just wanted to share with you a price action trade I took earlier in the day on the AUDUSD which you can see below.
Good setups like these show up daily if you have a trained eye. I recently read a post whereby their 2-to-1 reward to risk trade finally came into profit after two weeks :-o Why in the world would you wait two weeks for a trade to hit its profit, when itâs a simple 2x reward play? If you are risking 1% of your account, you still only made the same amount of money as someone also risking 1%, waiting a handful of hours, or even a day.
Sure, patience is a virtue in trading, but wasting time is not! You are not paid by the hour, but by how much you make per trade, and how often you make profit. So donât think you have to wait around for days, or even weeks to find quality 2x reward plays, because you donât. They happen every day if you learn to spot them.
I hope you found this post useful and welcome your comments.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Silver
As I had noted two days ago, Silver was showing reducing price action spreads which communicated it was likely bottoming out around $31.50. That is exactly how it played out, and has now broken above the dynamic resistance for the last 12hrs. If the $32 figure and dynamic support can hold, an attack on $32.50 should be next up to bat, while clearing this opens the door for $33.00.
Short term traders can look for possible sells at $32.47 or $33.00 on corrective weakness, while aggressive bulls can buy at $32.00, or corrective pullbacks into $31.50.
Upcoming Economic Announcements:
NZD NBNZ Business Confidence 20.00EST
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey 02.00EST
CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator 03.00EST
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index 08.30EST
USD U. of Michigan Confidence 09.55EST
EURUSD
Staying put inside a channel/triangle, the Euro continues to oscillate virtually on a weekly basis since early Sept. Since we are still midway through the triangle, I expect it to continue as we generally do not exit triangles till later on in the pattern. That plus the elections in the US will likely keep things tamed down a bit for the next few weeks.
It should be noted the last 6 weeks of price action have all been inside bars (on a weekly basis) to the large bullish trend bar leading up to this consolidation, so a continual reduction in volatility. Bulls can look for longs off the triangle bottom around 1.2830-50 while bears can look to sell just over 1.3100.
GBPUSD
After forming a needed correction from the Aug-Sept. 700pip bull run, the Cable has formed a piercing pattern rejecting off the weekly 20ema and dynamic support just above 1.5900. If a corrective pullback on the intraday charts form back towards the 1.600.5930 area, this could provide a nice opportunity to get back into the uptrend so watch for intraday price action clues here. Meanwhile, bears can watch the double top resistance at 1.6300 for a chance to sell cable.
Hey,
very impressive thread!
Indeed Eur/Usd is now ranging for about 6 weeks.
I wonder if you could expain the 4th week candle which you indicated as a pinbar. Isnât the low suppose to stick out from the rest.(lower than the left eye?)
Cheers.
Hi Chris
I notice that the bars in your pic are slightly different than mine, especially in relation to the position of the bars and the 20EMA. I put this down to different server times (my broker is on EET). How important is it to trading your methods that server time be set to a particular timezone? And if it is important, is there anything I can do about it?
Thanks
Hello Traders,
Just wanted to share some commentary on the Dow Jones which is below:
Skynet was offline today, along with all human traders as hurricane Sandy forced US exchanges to close today. Regardless, a key support level in 13000 is coming under pressure for the Dow Jones. Although a decent sized pin bar formed Friday off this level, pressure remains on the major index, and should the key support fail, 12750 and 12500 will be under attack shortly after.
Bears currently have control so intraday pullback setups towards 13150 and 13300 are good areas to sell on rallies. Bulls will want to see more stability here, or a deeper pullback before entering long.
Hello Kasravi,
Thanks for the kind words regarding the thread - am glad you like it.
Regarding the EURUSD pin bar, according to the traditional Martin Pring Pin Bar definition, yes, it should be piercing below the low of the (minimally) prior candle, but iâve found the formation still holds and trades quite well without such things, as its more a reflection of the order flow and rejection behind it.
So while its not a traditional pin bar, it can still be treated as one for almost all intensive purposes.
Hope that clarifies it as there are many ways to trade a pin bar.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Good question Donald,
Server times are important, and I have quantitatively tested dozens of key price action formations and patterns on different server times, and they perform variably different based on the server time and pair. It can actually make the difference between winning and losing, and you are correct that the difference in our charts is due to server time.
When you say EET, are you meaning European Time for your server time?
Any information is appreciated.
Kind Regards,
Chris
My broker is Alpari UK, and earlier this year they changed their server timezones to EASTERN European Time, which is 2 hours ahead of the UK. This means there are no Sunday candles (part of their rationale for the change). I know alot of ppl here reference New York time, and there is a post on babypips somewhere giving the reasons for using this.
What timezone are you in? I noticed in the pic you you posted of the cable weekly chart, the wick seems to just touch the 20EMA, whereas on my chart it clearly extends past it by about 30 pips.
Any suggestions?
Hello Traders,
I spotted an ii pattern on the daily charts for Silver. This is unlikely to go on much longer so a likely break soon. Check out the chart below;
I somehow unsubscribed to this thread and I didnt mean to, So Im getting back in :59:
Looks like the thread has died somewhat⌠Thatâs too bad as it was a very insightful one. 
Chris hasnât logged in in a couple of weeks, he might just be on holiday!
Hello Traders,
I apologize for being away. I was moving internationally (by myself) which was quite a process and took a couple of weeks.
But I am now back and will be posting regularly, along with doing some new trading articles to make up for lost time, so expect me here daily from here on out.
Kind Regards,
Chris
Speak of the devil and poof there he is.
Glad to have you back Chris hope all went smoothly for you.
