I think it is an advantage thinking in sell and buy orders. I may have started to fast with the thread. Im going to touch on the basics of bar supply and demand. Glad you are liking the thread.
Everything on the chart transpires because of buy and sell orders. Right down to the bar. Every bar contains its own supply and demand/its own sell orders and buy orders. When price is rising the top of the bar is broken, obviously, so bar supply is falling and bar demand the bottom of the bar is spared. To switch bar momentum it needs to engulf meaning if price is rising and bar demand is not closed below by a down bar then the buy orders are still strong. However at some point the buy orders run out and we start breaking bar demand/bottom of the bar simply because there is not enough buyers to support price moving up. Bar demand is broken and bar supply is spared in down moves. So when we see an engulfer we recognize immediately that momentum is turning, the opposing orders have outstripped the present run in price.
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This is the USDollar. We have talked about plateausâŚthe breakout now we have return twice to it. We talked about highs and higher highsâŚso we suspect price is still moving higher and sliding scale supply and demand which gave us a rough target where the dollar would fall too. The question becomes can price make a higher high which it might in its own slope but the slope is sick in that the angle is very low. Strong moves up have strong or higher angles weak price moves have sick slopes as this one in our sliding scaleâŚIm interested in seeing how price fairs as it moves up to our top Sliding Scale supply and remember we cannot trade against bar demand when bar supply is being broken - top of the bar is being broken the bottom of the bars are being spared - price has hit a structure lets see how it handles it
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Thank you. Today when I get time Im going to look at what is important in our wave and what do the spikes in price actually do besides going higher or lower, how do they effect the chart. Im glad you are enjoying the thread.
The ideas of this thread are not complicated if you think in buy and sell orders. Overlapping wicks are order imbalance and when we get price crossing under or over them we know price is breaching a plateau. The first wave of price will be to remove the buy orders or sell orders by going back to the overlapping wicks - to go back to the overlapping wicks removes the orders - the second move is to cross above the wicks - the third move is to confirm that price has switched momentum by returning to the range of the wicks. So when we see maybe not a big spike but a spike to overlapping wicks we start to consider that a switch in momentum is in progress and we know this because by returning to order imbalance we sweep the area clean of orders.
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Kate, thank you for this S & D follow-up, the bar chart is very informative. I trade consolidation breakouts.
At a glance, it appears that the bars to the left and right of the of the orders takeout bar are equidistant in each consolidation. Have you run a spreadsheet analysis on this idea?
No I never have done spread sheet analysis, there are many variables to consider. We have an option when we see overlapping wicks with consolidation below it. Stay with the direction of price till price breaks the plateau or stay out of the trade. The plateaus suggest a change in momentum, a new leg in the opposing direction and for me that is what I want to trade. Some of these breakouts from the plateaus are amazing movers and some are just small moves and some are amazing moves in the same direction when price touches the plateau but does not break it.
I think this is everything I covered this past week from individual bar supply/demand, engulfers, overlapping wicks, corrective waves, structures, Kennedy trend lines( not on chart) and touched on failed slopes(not on chart) and sliding scale supply and demand(not on chart) vs linear.
Im going to be looking at sliding scale supply and demand this week. The past week was about understanding how price action moves to determine if you want to trade from supply or from demand. You cannot trade supply and demand till you understand price action and why price moves. If you understand the concepts of those two then I can build on it with sliding scale. Our charts are not linear, they are made up of legs/waves of motive or corrective. From those waves we can estimate entries as institutes and banks try to scale into a position to where they are looking to take profits. This is probably the simplest idea to learn and the most effective.
Kate, youâre your charts and insight are an isnspiration.
So you should have a pivot point where EURUSD just hit the lower trend line as it is about to reverse and go bullish in my opinion. Placing a buy stop or two would be an ideal trade.
Hey Midwest, it is not really a trendline. We can only apply it to the forth point. If I turn this around now and say we have three extreme price points where the top extreme prices - the slope is tipped down. I can clone this and move it down to my bottom extreme point and place a couple points inside the lines where we engulfed and at the overlapping wicks or the point where price broke out. However lets say we want to take the bullish position then the first thing in my charts that would need to occur is price needs to stay above our last pivotal low, price needs to start breaking resist and third we need to start to break bar supply instead of bar demand. Now this is my take on price action and we all know in forex anything is possible - price could break all resists and take out the high to form a higher high.
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Agreed and you maybe 100% correct in your analysis. Iâm thinking that USD is going to run bearish shortly and the EURUSD will run Bullish and this leg is over.
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This is Yen still above the plateau but outside the Kennedy lines and at a target point. I like to see price break down past the plateau and switch momentum to the down side
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Thx Kate, Iâm certainly not any special trader yet. I do use indicators. my main indicator is the $DXY as the UDS pairs will usually usd/xxx correlate and xxx/usd not correlate. On my trading chart I use the Bollinger Bands for trend and the CCI for momentum. This was an easy one to call especially when I saw your chart. A goong went off.
I like what you are doing and learning from it. I am trying to move up to the 50 plus per trade range and S&R along with S&D are required for that consistency.
Keep up the great work, you have one supporter in me.
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Kate, I will look up a Kenedy trend line as I know nothing about this terminology. What did you read or get your S&D education from?
Here is what I think I know the USD/YEN doesnât follow its master much these days, only in spurts so one must be selective. This is because of its resilient safe haven status which has been eroded lately in favor of another currency because of the USD tariff debacles. All day today and I think will continue the YEn has traded sideways on the D7 chart and with a small bearish wedge on the D1 chart. This is support by the fundies USD/JPY: Political events a potential risk to the current 110-113 range - Danske Bank. That said the DXY just turned south so we can see some downward movement until its exhausted.
That said my indicators are supporting a downward movement as well for 50 pips or a bit more.
Kate your chart supports that movement into the plateau range.
After that my guess depending on the USD, YEn will rise to 130 on the D7 chart or if the USD falters the YEN can fall back from 112 to the next channel.
While I look to the week I trade within the day.
Kate I am trying to attache a USDJPYchart.png how do I insert it or attach to the post. Seems It will not let me copy and past on this updated forum software.
Great I also use this indicator to estimate supply and demand, though itâs a kind of indirect instrument of getting right market view.
Yep thatâs why Iâm following Kate,
BTW do you know how to attach a chart image?