Up s... creek, anyone got a paddle?

Beginner Questions
1

If newbie could make mistakes! I’ve got all of them under my belt.
Working on the 1min TF
Misinterpreting fundamentals
Adding to losing positions
Expecting the positions to 'come back’
Cocky/greedy/overconfident
No stop loss
Took out my hedges
etc; etc; etc;
All the things I learnt on 12 months study, 6 months on BP school and 6 months on demo seem to have evaporated since going live at beginning of Feb 19.
Everything that shouldn’t be even considered of by anyone with a modicum of intelligence I have managed to do in the 3 trades below. I could call it a ‘senior moment’ but that’s a cheap cop out. Most of my other trading has been reasonably successful.

2019.03.14 buy 0.20 gbpusd -502.26
2019.03.15 buy 0.15 gbpusd -385.23
2019.04.03 buy 0.10 gbpusd -164.87
-1 052.36

Balance:1 685.21 Equity: 632.85
Free margin:115.10 Margin:517.75
Margin level: 120%

The problem I have now is what to do in the short term?
I think cable may head south quite a distance before any likelihood of recovery which could be some way ahead.

My options I can come up with are:

  1. Cut my losses completely or cut 1 or 2
  2. Add more capital (can do a v. little bit)
  3. Hedge (but the problem isn’t going to go away)
  4. Put in SL’s now the horse has bolted
  5. Wait & see if it comes back (ha!)
    I’m leaning towards option 4 and then hope for the best.
    Ask the wife is not an option.
    Does anyone have an opinion?..about the options, not me being a complete plonker.
    Just about to print but rapidly had to increase capital by 300 while I think.
2

just a suggestion
if price goes below 1.29569 close all trades and go short 0.6 to recover losses but only and only if price goes below 1.29569

3

zrrsys Thank you for that, much appreciated. That gives me hope that a potential disaster might possibly be mitigated and that it keeps me in the game.

1 Like
4

that was just a suggestion based on my analyses
i might be wrong

5

Screenshot_MetaTrader 5_20190419-225346
Screenshot_MetaTrader 5_20190419-2253461080×1920 212 KB

If D1 candle close about red trendline maybe u can recover it.
If 1.2900 breakout Nearest buy zone is 1.2800, will ur account survive?
Screenshot_MetaTrader 5_20190419-225929
Screenshot_MetaTrader 5_20190419-2259291080×1920 231 KB

If i were u, i will close all my trade
Starting demo again,and startover with remaining capital
Just my 2 cent,

6

This is why I say that trading on a demo account is only beneficial up to a point. Beyond that point, a trader impedes their development. You shouldn’t spend more than a few months on a demo, especially when micro lot trading is available with a couple of hundred dollars.

The real learning starts when you go live. As what most people ‘learn’ in theory and in practice is usually not applied live. There is a gap between theory and live trading where most peoples money falls in to.

You cant learn this business for free. It cost money in one form or another as you are discovering here. Since your tuition fees are being paid to the market.

Firstly, this is how I would re-frame the situation. These trades and the decisions you made to get to this point are tuition fees. Expensive lessons, maybe, but if you learn anything from them you should not pay to repeat the same lessons again.

I would refrain from adding more money to your account at this point. Only top up your account again once your funds get too low to trade with. Reduce your volume if you have to until such a point where you deem yourself to be consistently profitable.

Your education can be relatively cheap or expensive. You decide.

There is an adage that might be relevant here : When in doubt, get out.

However, no one can tell you what to do. You have to consider whether the criteria used to enter the trades are still valid. If not, you should ruthlessly cut your losses to prevent further damage.

There is always the possibility of a recovery though. The point is, no one really knows. You have decide whether you want to take on more risk, eliminate the risk, reduce risk or give your positions a chance to recover.

The market has an uncanny ability to know where you pain point is. When you cant take it anymore, and decide to cut your losses, she will reverse course while sticking her fingers up at you.

As it stands, you have to perform at near 150% ROI to get back to roughly where you were.

Good luck.

2 Likes
7

made some more calculations
if day candle closes below 1.298082 or 1.297973 close everything
if day candle closes above 1.302374 go long or set your stop loss at 1.302374
and then go short 0.6 if day candle closes below 1.29569 to recover losses or take a break and go back to demo

8

Thank you for your ‘2 cents’. I consider your thoughts worth a whole lot more than than that. I’ve put my sl’s in, not too tight, and am now going to go back over the last few weeks and see where the improvements can be made to my trading, the good and the bad.
The drop to 1.28 would be a drop too far at this time for me

9

ProfitPotential, many thanks for your thoughts, I concur with all.
I will have another go at demo, but only that it helps me with trying out different strategies, I can’t get the same intensity trading demo since I went live.
After due considerstion I think I’m going to reduce the risk by putting in sl’s, put a pending order in and sit back for a week from live trading.

10

made some more calculations
if day candle closes below 1.298082 or 1.297973 close everything
if day candle closes above 1.302374 go long or set your stop loss at 1.302374
and then go short 0.6 if day candle closes below 1.29569 to recover losses or take a break and go back to demo

1 Like
11

You are welcome,

GBPUSD is at a pivotal price area at the moment. 1.2970 - 1.3000 ish would be it…

This price area has been tested, now for the sixth time.

If it is of any benefit to you, I do not think it will hold. As the more times a price area gets tested, the weaker it gets in my opinion. This is looking likely that it will break and we will probably see further downside before a recovery.

A further 200 pips to the downside is possible, given where the next major support area is.

12

Capture
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1 Like
13

Sounds like you’re in positions without a strategy. Therefore close all immediately, find and develop a strategy. When you have the strategy, demo trade to learn about contingencies, position sizing, order types etc… Then start trading small.

2 Likes
14

tommor, I agree: I haven’t been using a strategy that would enable me to learn and progress. I have taken the easier option (to my mind) of working on the 1m and 5min charts, straight in and straight out without learning a great deal about fx. I have been fairly good with some trades but unfortunately have let some get away from me, the 3 above are the worst by far. I hope I have learned from my errors, the proof will be down the road a bit. I will still be trading, I don’t believe I can give that up easily

15

That was my first impression as well what tommor said…

16

Close all your positions & take time off away from the charts.

When you come back vow to never trade the 1 minute tf.

G

1 Like
17

set your stop loss by 1.129100
as of now price is oversold
and supply is high and starting to decrease meaning they are buyers out there
you should maybe be one them
you have fought hard so keep attacking
just my pov

18

Thanks for that, I have my eye on it. the sl is set up at present at 1.129565.
I’ll look at the 1.1291.

19

zrrsys, I’ve had a long think over the weekend and looked closely at what you and others have said. All very good advice/opinions and I’m very grateful. In the end I’ve decided to keep my positions open and tweaked my sl’s a bit (error?). My confidence is a bit low at the moment so I will settle myself down for a couple of days, see where things stand before making any trades and cocking things up even more. If my sl’s get hit; they get hit, and I’ll have to smile and move on to the next trade…but more cautiously to begin with.

20

If you can hold place your stop 40 pips away from current price, if price goes there, theres a big chance it will continue to drop. Now if price hits your stop you have paid (quite well) to learn a lesson, just make sure that the lesson is well learned.