So apparently the US economy added 288K jobs in April and brought the jobless rate down to 6.3%, but most of the drop was sparked by a falling participation rate. How does this affect your long-term dollar bias?
I guessed the NFP would be higher than expectations (and won a contest,) but quickly saw that the number itself was not going to move the markets. Like everyone else, I am waiting for some breakouts or enough upticks to make my main system useful. I still trade while markets change modes, but I use a system of targets, instead of lettin’ 'em run.
I’ll just wait and see if something changes my own biases. I do not think the USD is going to gain near term strength against everything.
Not sure what happened here…first the up and then the down ? Best to stay out of the market for the entire day
A lot of times, the market may reverse after traders dig into the details of a report. In this case, traders turned bearish on the dollar when they saw the participation rate drop and wage growth was non-existent. That weak participation number definitely skewed the unemployment rate lower, so the initial bullishness was reversed.
Lol what contest is that? Good job in seeing that upside surprise coming! But yeah it looks like the number still wasn’t impressive enough, especially since Yellen is now retracting that 6-month rate hike time forecast. I agree that it’s better to wait for cues from actual market price action then just wait and see if the biases hold or change. Do keep us posted on what your forecasts for the next NFP are!
Good call, I guess. When in doubt, stay out! Of course don’t forget to take a look at the components of the report, as Pipcrawler mentioned, to guide you in your next dollar trades or to see if you should switch biases with your open positions.
The contest was with a non regulated broker, my fun account. Since the USD numbers aren’t doing much, I’m watching the NZD (milk exports down) and the CAD (jobs down) to see if any further fundamental weakness shows up in the charts of their crosses. I’m looking for short entries.
I still don’t see much real change in the EUR or the JPY, just a lotta talk. British data (manufacturing down, house prices up) needs something, too.