EURUSD – Euro Forecast Bullish but Range High Remains Key
GBPUSD – Sentiment-Based Strategies Remain Long GBPUSD
USDJPY – Japanese Yen Forecast to Rally Further vs US Dollar
USDCHF – Swiss Franc Looks to Gain Versus US Dollar
USDCAD – Canadian Dollar Trades at Key Resistance
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Historical Charts of Speculative Forex Trading Positioning
EURUSD – Forex trading crowds have aggressively sold into Euro/US Dollar rallies, giving our contrarian trading systems clear signal to go long the EURUSD. In fact, three of our sentiment-based strategies have recently sold US Dollars against the Euro and other key counterparts. The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.70 as nearly 63% of traders are short. In detail, long positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 5.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.0% lower than yesterday and 13.1% stronger since last week. There is distinct risk that the EURUSD holds its long-standing trading range, but our contrarian sentiment bias currently calls for further gains.
GBPUSD –One-sided forex trading crowd sentiment has led two of our forex trading systems to go long the British Pound against the US Dollar, but there is distinct risk that the GBPUSD may reverse at important technical resistance. In fact, our technical strategist has advocated going short the GBPUSD on the day’s trade. The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.35 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Short positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 10.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.7% weaker than yesterday and 101.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains, but it will be important to watch whether the pair can clear important near-term technical resistance.
USDJPY – Our contrarian forex trading strategies have remained short the USDJPY on one-sided sentiment extremes, but a more recent shift makes short-term outlook somewhat less clear. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.04 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Though a ratio of over 2:1 is clearly extreme, this is a fairly significant shift from last week when the ratio stood above 3:1. Said change in direction has meant that one SSI-based strategy has actually gone long the USDJPY while another remains short. We remain bearish on fairly one-sided crowd sentiment, but short-term moves dilute our forecast for declines.
USDCHF – One-sided forex crowd sentiment extremes have led three SSI-based trading strategies to go short the USDCHF, and our short-term forecast remains fairly bearish the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.52 as nearly 72% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.89 as 74% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.1% lower than yesterday and 16.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.1% higher than yesterday and 6.9% stronger since last week. Much like in the EURUSD, there is clear risk that the USDCHF will hold its long-standing trading range. Yet our short-term bias remains bearish on one-sided crowd sentiment.
USDCAD – Our sentiment-based forex trading strategies have remained heavily short the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar through the past several days of trade, and our short-term trading bias remains bearish. The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.26 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.59 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.9% lower than yesterday and an incredible 98.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are unchanged from yesterday and 14.8% weaker since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses, but it serves to note that the pair currently trades at important technical support—leaving risk of a short-term reversal.
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