US Dollar - Look for ST Weakness to Take Advantage of Longer Term Bull

  • Euro Towards 1.3370 Before Reversing
  • Japanese Yen 128.00 is Long Term Objective
  • British Pound 1.9815 Should Be Resistance
  • Swiss Franc 1.2372 USDCHF Support
  • Canadian Dollar Choppy Correction
  • Australian Dollar Double Zigzag
  • New Zealand Dollar Resistance at .7550/70

Commentary: The EURUSD remains at the important juncture that we discussed yesterday. We?ll focus on the short term structure today. If the EURUSD has rolled over from an important top, then we will look for 1.3373 to hold as resistance. This is the former 4th wave extreme (6/08 high) and also the 38.2% of 1.3552-1.3261.

Strategy: We are looking to get bearish at 1.3369

Commentary: It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few months. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70. In the short term, the USDJPY appears to be in a small 3rd wave within a 5 wave sequence that began at 120.75. A wave 3 is in progress and close to complete from 120.76. We are expecting a 4th wave to occur in a correction and for support to be strong near 122.82. The trend is bullish.
Strategy: Align with uptrend at 122.90, against 121.81, targeting 128.00

Commentary: The decline from 1.9964 is a clean 5 wave affair and an a-b-c correction is unfolding from 1.9621. This correction should be complete near 1.9814/33. 1.9814 is where wave c would equal wave a and 1.9833 is the 61.8% of 1.9964-1.9621. Aggressive short term traders can look to trade the small c wave higher towards 1.9830 with 1.9655 as risk. We are looking to get bearish on either a break below 1.9621 or a rally to 1.9814.
Strategy: Bearish on break of 1.9621 or a rally to 1.9814.

Commentary: Longer term, the daily close above the trendline drawn off of the October 2006 and January 2007 highs instills confidence in the bullish bias and a measured objective is at the 100% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145 at 1.2481. From an EW perspective, the rally from 1.2145 is the 3rd of a 3rd wave rally, which often produce the most powerful moves. A rally through the mentioned 1.2481 level gives scope to an a confluence of Fibonacci targets at 1.2687/89 (100% of 1.1877-1.2571/1.1993 and 161.8% of 1.1993-1.2329/1.2145). Since the USDCHF has stalled just below the 100% extension (1.2481), be wary of a pullback towards. A small c wave is expected to bring price back to the former 4th wave at 1.2372. This is a good point to either add to longs or initiate longs.
Strategy: Bullish now, against 1.2145, targeting 1.2500 and 1.2700 (add to position at 1.2372)

Commentary: The 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance in 11 trading days. Corrections often unfold in a-b-c form, so we are treating the 1.0548-1.0711 rally as wave a in an a-b-c correction. Wave b may be underway now and could push into the 1.0583-1.0610 area. We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Strategy: We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800.

Commentary: A double zigzag from .8476 may be complete at .8332, which is the 100% extension of .8476-.8365/.8447. Still, lack of an impulse rally from the low has us on the defensive for now. Once we see evidence of an impulse rally, we will get bullish against the swing low (which is .8332 now). A rally through .8447 warrants bullish action. .8319 and .8282 are potential support levels (50% and 61.8% of .8162-.8476).
Strategy: Flat now, getting bullish above .8447, against swing low (.8359 now), target TBD

Commentary: The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggests that at least one more leg lower will occur. An irregular flat correction may be unfolding from .7465. Potential reversal points are .7551 and .7571 (the 50% and 61.8% of .7637-.7465). We are bearish from .7535 and targeting .7262, which is the 161.8% extension of .7637-.7465/.7540. The 100% extension is at .7368 and may also be support so keep risk tight if price falls below .7400. In summary, we are looking for a spike above .7540 before price reverses and heads lower.
Strategy: Bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7262.
*JTREND is a proprietary calculation that uses recent highs, lows and closes to determine the trend. JTRENDLT is the longer term trend and uses the last 4 weeks of price data. JTRENDST is the shorter term trend and uses the last 5 days of price data. An example is below. Blue bars denote bullish trend and red bars denote bearish trend. The chart below is the EURUSD weekly chart.