US Dollar: Markets Ignore Fed Warnings

The US dollar remained almost exactly unchanged against major forex counterparts, as dismal Housing Starts data and noteworthy Fed speeches had little effect through uneventful currency trading. US Building Permits fell to their lowest in 14 years through the month of November, as a clear oversupply of housing inventories limited fresh demand for new homes. It is subsequently unsurprising to note that Housing Starts fell just above similar 14-year depths, and there seems to be little in the way of further declines. Rising borrowing costs will continue to limit demand for an already-downtrodden housing sector, and such trends are unlikely to reverse through the medium term. Yet traders showed limited reactions to the fresh real estate data; both Building Permits and Housing Starts were actually marginally above pessimistic median forecasts. Market attention subsequently shifted to an interview by Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, who commented on monetary policy developments and overall outlook for the US economy. Fisher said, “The actions [Fed officials] have taken should provide some buoyancy through the course of next year to the economy. But I want to make sure that we don’t overreact and create further problems down the road.” In effect, the regional Fed president said that FOMC interest rate cuts to date should be enough to bolster growth through 2008 and implied that further cuts may be imprudent given current inflationary prospects. Such hawkish commentary subsequently leaves questions as to whether the FOMC will continue to cut interest rates according to market forecasts. Fisher will be a voter on the Federal Open Market Committee through 2008, and one can be fairly certain that he is not alone in worrying about domestic price pressures. Yet Fed Funds futures remained almost exactly unchanged through the release, and the dollar remained similarly unmoved despite the noteworthy rhetoric. Currency markets may remain similarly quiet in the days ahead; limited US and international event risk leaves little motivation to force major moves across key forex pairs.