[B]• Euro Through the Roof
• Japanese Yen Wave 3 Underway
• British Pound Through 2.1000
• Swiss Franc Breaks 2004 Level
• Canadian Dollar To .9000
• Australian Dollar Impulse Underway
• New Zealand Dollar To .8172[/B]
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the EURUSD is in a 3rd wave and a 4th and 5th are required before any meaningful top is in place. An objective is the 161.8% extension of 1.4015-1.4349/1.4125 at 1.4666.” The pair has exceeded this level and tested 1.4700. Still, expect a small 4th wave correction that could reach 1.4434 before a new high in wave 5.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: We maintained a bearish bias 115.41 but did present an alternate count that would be in favored is 115.41 was exceeded. 115.41 was not exceeded and wave 3 down has accelerated. The 161.8% extension of 117.92-113.24/115.89 is at 108.30, which is an initial bearish objective. Coming under 111.59 reinforces the bearish bias.
Strategy: Remain bearish, against 115.41, target below 111.59
Commentary: The larger correction that we were looking for prior to a test of 2.1000 did not happen as Cable has gone through 2.1000 already. Yesterday, we wrote about “the longer term bull channel near 2.1100 and that a bullish objective is at the 161.8% extension of 1.9651-2.0366/1.9879 at 2.1035.” Price is right at the mentioned Fibonacci objective and the top of the channel is at 2.1108 today. Expect a test of the channel soon.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: As expected, the USDCHF has plummeted. We wrote yesterday that “price could extend as low as the 161.8% extension of 1.1894-1.1599/1.1785 at 1.1308.” Weakness has extended beyond there as the USDCHF has dropped below the 2004 low at 1.1287. The next potential support/bearish objective is the 1995 low at 1.1172.
Strategy: Flat (bearish objective hit at 1.1350)
Commentary: The USDCAD has plummeted….again. We wrote about the 8 consecutive down weeks yesterday (this week will make it 10 if the pair closes down again) as well as the longer term channel (broken) as well as weekly RSI at 15 (now at 10), but fresh modern lows continue to be made. From an EW perspective, a bearish objective for the end of wave 3 in the 5 wave bearish cycle from 1.1875 is at .8986. With the low today at .9055, the potential for a corrective rally to begin rather soon is high.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: The Aussie blew through went through our stop and the rally from .9156 may be a third wave within the 5 wave bull cycle from .9106. The rally from .9156 has hit the 161.8% extension of .9106-.9248/.9156 at .9386. Expect a small 4th wave correction to be followed by a new high (above .9397). Near term support is at .9354.
Strategy: flat
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “Kiwi’s break above .7738 opens up the possibility that the NZDUSD is in a 3rd wave to much higher levels. This seems odd given that the other dollar pairs suggest at least a small correction prior to the continuation of the weak dollar trend but it is the strucutre that we see as a possible outcome. If this is the pattern unfolding, then the rally is likely to continue while price remains above .7568.” This was one of the pair we were correct about as the NZDUSD has rallied through .7800. An objective is at the 161.8% extension of .7365-.7738/.7568 at .8172.
Strategy: Flat
