US Durable Goods Orders come out worse than expected. The British Pound has been under pressure as the Bank of England released its credit conditions survey yesterday. Swedish manufacturing numbers and consumer confidence came out weaker than expected.
News and Events:
US Durable Goods Orders for August fell by 4.9% versus an expected drop of 3.5% and a 5.9% increase in July. Durables excluding transportation fell by 1.8% versus an expected drop of 0.8% and an increase of 3.7% in July. The US equity market however opened strong following news of General Motors and the United Auto Workers union reaching an agreement to end the worker strike. The US dollar resisted the weaker news, finishing unchanged against the Euro and slightly stronger against the Pound. On the flip side, investors remain tentative as worries persist of a recession in the US and higher probabilities of further rate cuts from the FOMC.
The British Pound has been under pressure as the Bank of England released its credit conditions survey yesterday which pointed towards tightening in the corporate sector credit markets in the near term.
Swedish manufacturing numbers and consumer confidence came out weaker than expected, which mirrors sentiment during the market’s turmoil in recent weeks. Investors have lowered their GDP estimates in line with slower economic growth to come.
Today’s Key Issues (time in GMT):
07:55 GE Unemployment Change (000’s) SEP -20K vs -15K
07:55 GE Unemployment Rate (s.a) SEP 8.90% vs 9.00%
08:00 EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) AUG 11.70% vs 11.70%
08:00 EC Bloomberg Eurozone Retail PMI SEP
08:00 GE Bloomberg Germany Retail PMI SEP
08:00 IT Trade Balance Non-Eu (Euros) AUG
08:00 IT Bloomberg Italy Retail PMI SEP
08:00 FR Bloomberg France Retail PMI SEP
08:00 EC Euro-Zone M3 s.a. 3 mth ave. AUG 11.50% vs 11.10%
08:30 UK Index of Services (3mth/3mth) JUL 0.80% vs 0.80%
08:30 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase AUG
10:00 UK U.K. CBI September Distributive Trades Report
12:30 US GDP Annualized 2Q F 3.90% vs 4.00%
12:30 US Personal Consumption 2Q F 1.40% vs 1.40%
12:30 US GDP Price Index 2Q F 2.70% vs 2.70%
12:30 US Core PCE QoQ 2Q F 1.30% vs 1.30%
12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Sep-22 317K vs 311K
12:30 US Continuing Claims Sep-15 2555K vs 2544K
14:00 US New Home Sales AUG 828K vs 870K
14:00 US New Home Sales MoM AUG -4.90% vs 2.80%
14:00 US Help Wanted Index AUG 24 vs 25
17:00 FR Unemployment Rate AUG 8.00% vs 8.00%
17:00 FR Unemployment Change (000s) AUG -10K vs 0K
The Risk Today:
EurUsd up trend holding strong after hitting 1.4163 earlier today. The trend remains intact above 1.4043, which holds as the first (minor) support down to 1.4000.
GbpUsd still in a short term range between 1.9873 and 2.0373. First support holds at 2.0081, while a break out of 2.0321 up to 2.0373 will open the door back to 2.0654.
UsdJpy key levels to focus on are support at 113.99 and resistance at 116.38. Follow the breakout.
UsdChf downtrend still intact as ADX(14) continues to rise on a daily look. Initial resistance holding at 1.1772 and support at 1.1638.
Resistance and Support:
By James Brandt - ACM Advanced Currency Markets, Geneva, Switzerland