Speculation of an approaching recession and return to dovish monetary policy may be stepped up today (slightly). The economic docket offered three notable economic releases, and each disappointed in comparison to economists, and more importantly traders’, consensuses. Measuring the steps to a possible recession in the second half of this year, both trade and employment numbers worsened. The physical trade balance for July dropped to a $62.2 billion deficit against forecasts of a $58.0 billion shortfall. This was worst trade reading for the US in 16 months as oil imports soundly overwhelmed a 3.3 percent jump in exports. The appreciation in the dollar through the month is not likely to have yet been reflected in trade figures (at least at notable levels). Taking a measure of employment, first time unemployment claims grew (from the originally reported figure) to 445,000 while total filings hit another near-five year high. Though a modest economic release, this nonetheless offers a very disappointing outlook for consumer spending (accounting for an estimated 70 percent of growth). Finally, upstream inflation pressures have tappered off as expected. A 3.7 percent drop in import prices over the month of August was the biggest drop on records going back 19 years. It comes as no surprise, petroleum products plunged 12.8 percent and industrial supplies fell 8.4 percent. Altogether, this data had limited impact on the dollar; but it certainly curbs hopes of a near-term rate hike and draws a recession state closer.