Hi there… I work in imports in Quebec, Canada. Have been following the USD/CAD for over 6 years now. . I am interested in going long on USD/CAD at the moment. it seems this pair has taken such a beating, and from the Trade balance and New Housing Index this morning, it has lost another 40+ pips… I’m thinking of going long on it as swing trading possibility. Any advice against or for it?
http://forums.babypips.com/analyst-arena/4525-usdcad-finds-floor.html#post15392
I do not have my charts on at the moment, but i’ve been trading this pair for the past couple of weeks and can relate to your intentions.
Considering the Low that has/is forming at the 1.0450 level in an failed attempt to break the lows it is quite possible that we see a good bounce. We’ve already broken out of the descending insiude-trendline and there is a good chance we break out of the whole descending channel.
In a short term outlook we will need to violate the 1.0600 confidently in order to confirm the begining of a new bullish trend.
The current price level is an optimal entry scenario; it has a tight stop and good potential gains. I’ve been in since 1.0462 with a SL below the lows.
Regards,
E. Lang
I forget where I found that a key futures oil contract is matching the USD/CAD movement. I’m still finding reports of troubles in Nigeria, equipment maintenance issues and assorted reasons why people will continue to bid up the oil and the CAD. Historically, the oil contracts go south in October, and probably the USD/CAD will find reasons to reverse the trend. If we get a warm early winter like the last, then we can see a $50/barrel briefly like this past winter. If its a cold winter, then CAD will more than likely stay under $1.100. Read up on oil futures, via Today in Investor’s Business Daily stock analysis and business news
and bloomberg’s commodity and energy pages and that should clue into the CAD reversal opportunities. I doubt that it will happen before Halloween.
There should be plenty of support at the 1.0400 level, see historic monthly charts for verification.