Hey babypips crew,
Left a position open over night on USD/CAD and got stopped out. Just wondering what the big push was before price went to the upside. Was it big banks clearing out the stops? Can many retail traders do that kind of push?
Thanks!
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Hey zrrsys,
Sorry, but what about that spike in price told you that it could go higher? Trying to learn everything I can.
It was likely a stop hunt or liquidity hunt so usd could be bought up again. Coincidentally it was just before cad data which turned out to be better than expected so usd sold off a bit then rallied on fed williams statement. However it was likely positioning before usd good news. Retail traders cant do this kind of push. There were probably a load of stop losses there.
Dare I ask why would you go long there? I’m guessing you’ve back tested this method and in the long run getting in early works out to be profitable in the long run.
I’ll give you my personal opinion and my outlook on why I think USD got stronger on CAD while showing my chart view for just a second. In my chart you see I noted a long term bullish view why it’s because every time this pair has went down hitting those bollinger bands it keeps coming back, and has basically been stuck in that 1.30 - 1.33 range. I saw a slight pullback on the 1.32 area earlier yesterday and decided to put long positions at the 1.32, as you can see the longer term trend is bullish so why trade against it, it makes more sense to buy then sell at this point since I feel it has the momentum to hit the 1.33 mark as it has previously shown me before with my orange lines it finds its resistance around those level. That’s the technical side.
The fundamental reasons that I speculate into the bullish run due to :
-Weaker manufacturing data.
-USD good housing rebound data this month.
-A little bit more escalation with some stuff from the Chinese side/Trump saying tariffs will definitely be raised if deal not reached.
-Oil prices dropped and you can see just as a whole safe haven currencies got stronger yen, gold, and etc.
Obviously this is merely speculation and my opinion on it.
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Yep Spot on. All of the above.
Blackduck
@Rickster99 asking the good questions. I’ve only been at this for about 9 months now and based off what I see in price action, I saw that it could go up. And if it didn’t, I had my risk management in place. Again, I’m still new so I’m still working on my skillz and cutting through all the noise. I’ve back tested a little but bounced around from strategy to strategy too much so I’m working on my focus now.
@HonestDon bought usdcad near the daily fib, as it was falling, fake break of monday s low, highest volume of the day on that red candle, divergence, bullish reaction, entered on the 5m, my stop was i think 10 pips, took profit at the highs. Usually they do this sort of traps in a downtrend(in this case), to get people in a sell panic only to mark up price against them. Pros buy on the down moves(candles) and sell the rallies to get a better price. no retail can move price like that, spot forex is the most liquid market and the amount of money needed to move price even 10 or 20 pips is insane. hope this helps. cheers
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I need to watch the news more. But because I trade from Sydney Australia, I was sleeping through the whole thing!
first the fan was pointing downward
and the first pick broke the upper trend of the fan
which means a bullish signal
plus you have crude oil that showing bearish signs
and lastly
big players always pull the price the opposite direction
to get a better buying price
No need to watch the news. Just work on your strategy. In the long run you may be right but just in this occasion you got stopped out. Because next time you’ll watch the news and it wont spike down and you could have made 1:3. That’s the difference between being frustrated or profitable.
Thanks for the replies everyone. Today I am a better trader because of you. @Rickster99 @zrrsys @1odi @Blackduck @momoisnyc
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I never watch news in real time. All my regular trades are off D1 charts. You take a trade on a good set-up and most of the time you win. Sometimes you don’t but that’s because sometimes the markets take the less probable route. But most good news arises out of uptrends, most bad news arises out of downtrends.
Either way its the set-up that makes the money.
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people saw the breakout on gold, nice candle piercing and closing at the highes, breakout traders bought that easy, then u have the retest of previous resist that should now act as support, right? that s why we see that red candle closing in the middle with that wick, people buying some more maybe on lower tfs the retest, stops below that support.(i know this cos it s how i used to trade few years back) but if u check the volume, right after that nice breaout candle the next 1 is a doji(pin) with even higher volume, now that tells me that the pros were matching the buying pressure from the retail traders with selling orders, therefore price wasn t able to move past that(huge sign of weakness for the upmove). on the lower timeframes, u could pinpoint where they placed theyr stops, and trade accordingly
i showed this example cos it s what more or less USDCAD did, faked the move down, it got bought up using he selling pressure, here they used the breakout traders to get better prices to sell into. it s good to know when high impact news occur and to not trade during or even before with 15. 20 mints. see the reaction and use that as catalist for ur bias. usually professionals are using good news to sell into that or viceversa for bad news.
News is a factor but not necessarily a necessity. You just have to be keen on any big headlines and on important data days. Nothing is full proof usually the technical fall in line with what’s happening news wise or what will for the most part I believe but you’ll always have an instance where it can go awry.
Are you guys trading the news or just watching for it and staying out of your trades? I read that some people only trade the news. Which seems wild to me.
Personally, I’d probably stay away because it’s too exciting for me.
‘Boring trading is good trading’ I say.
it seems like it was a liquidity grab, also make sure your SL is a few pips below or above the previous low or high.
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Yeah, there are different ways to trade the news. So I follow the news to form a bias of what currency is getting stronger against another and then trade in that direction. Trading the expectancy of a news result is also another way. I dont trade data points, that’s just guessing and therefore gambling.