USD/CHF Stays in a Sliding Mode | Technical Analysis

USD/CHF traded somewhat higher today, after it hit support near the 0.9840 zone, but the recovery remained limited near the 0.9865 level. Overall, the pair has been in a sliding mode since October 16th, with the fall below the upside support line drawn from the low of August 13th, as well as the break below the 0.9915 barrier, signaling a short-term reversal to the downside. Having all that in mind, we will hold a bearish stance for now.

If the bears are strong enough to recharge and push the battle below the 0.9840 level, we may initially see them targeting the 0.9820 barrier, the break of which could extend the slide towards the 0.9800 area, which is near the lows of August 28th, 29th, and September 4th. Another dip, below 0.9800 may set the stage towards the low of August 27th, at around 0.9775.

Looking at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI already below 30, has turned down again, while the MACD lies below both its zero and trigger lines, and has just turned south as well. These indicators detect strong downside speed and support the notion for the bears to stay in the driver’s seat for a while more.

In order to start examining the case of a decent correction to the upside, we would like to see a break above Friday’s high, which is near 0.9890. Such a move could pave the way towards the 0.9915 barrier, which if broken, may see scope for more upside extensions, perhaps towards the 0.9945 territory, defined as a resistance by the inside swing low of October 14th.


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Looks like it will make for a decent range-trade buying USDCHF target 0.995 versus spot 0.985 which is a 1% difference, 0.8% after cost and likely to at least be profitable (and closed) at 0.5%. Possible to close in 3 days or likely within 3 weeks. A potential problem factor is how USD technical sentiment surely got partially wasted last week as all majors rebounded against it excepting the JPY.

Consider pairing the CHF shorts with JPY in this case.
Which inspires me a decent position grouping. And since the trade is based on CHF the t/p’s should be based on CHF fluctuations rather than their pair, around 1% difference based on the Swiss Franc Indexes/Trusts.

Buy X=1 USDCHF target 0.995 (quote 0.987)
Sell X=2 CHFJPY target 108.5 (quote 110.17)

If the positions aren’t in substantial (+0.6%+) paper-profit within 3 weeks it’ll be time to consider closing.

At the end of last week session, USDCHF currency pair closed with a bullish pinbar candle. With this closing, in my opinion, the USDCHF is likely to be a recovery week this week. So we will wait for the price to bounce back so we can establish a buy position on USDCHF.

  • Switching to a shorter time frame, H4, the possibility that USDCHF will bounce back around 0.9118 where we can establish a buy position with USDCHF with the nearest target of 0.9171, which is also the MA20 on the timeframe.