In the past week, the dollar has weathered a number of top market moving indicators without a break in its major pairings. For USDCHF, this has set up a considerable range. A long-term rising trendline is holding up support at a level that already touts psychological significance.
Event Risk US and Switzerland
Trading Tip - In the past week, the dollar has weathered a number of top market moving indicators without a break in its major pairings. For USDCHF, this has set up a considerable range. A long-term rising trendline is holding up support at a level that already touts psychological significance. For resistance a number of indicators offer the confluence needed to give a promising level of assurance. A medium-term falling trendline from February may one day, threaten a breakout; but as of yet, the two trends lines are far enough apart that this is not a pressing concern. A point of concern for any dollar-based pair - though ranges have held well during a few top-tier market moving indicators recently, event risk is still a threat. Watch open positions during the ISM and NFP reports.
US - The US faces a full deck of data this week, and Monday will start with Personal Income, which is expected to rise 0.6 percent once again in March. The next day, ISM manufacturing is anticipated to edge higher, but traders will be looking at the employment component to try to handicap NFPs on Friday. The same applies to not only the ADP employment change, but the labor index of ISM Non-Manufacturing as well. While major surprises in any of these releases could spark volatility, trade will likely stay in range until Fridays marquee Non-Farm Payrolls. The figure is forecasted to plunge to 100K, but Naps are notoriously difficult to estimate, so traders may be preparing for anything from a sub-100K number to a surge above 200K.
Switzerland - Economic indicators over the course of the next week could be crucial to Swiss franc trade. First, a solid SVME PMI reading will likely reflect the resilience of the Swiss economy, one of the healthiest and most stable in the developed world, underpinning the potential of continuous quarterly rate hikes by the Swiss National Bank throughout the rest of the year. The next day, CPI is estimated to surge 0.8 percent during the month of April, supporting a substantial amount of event risk at the end of the week.
[B]Data for April 30 - May 7[/B] [B]Date[/B] [B]US Economic Data[/B] Apr 30 Personal Income (MAR) May 1 ISM Manufacturing (APR) May 2 ADP Employment Change (APR) May 3 ISM Non-Manufacturing (APR) May 4 Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (APR) [B]Data for April 30 - May 7[/B] [B]Date[/B] [B]Swiss Economic Data[/B] May 2 SVME PMI (APR) May 3 CPI (APR)