USD/CHF - The Pair to Short-Term Range Trade

Our recent USDCHF recommendation is very slightly profitable through the day’s trade, but the recent hold of a minor falling trendline threatens has kept the currency from nearing our profit target.


[B]Trading Tip - Our recent USDCHF recommendation is very slightly profitable through the day’s trade, but the recent hold of a minor falling trendline threatens has kept the currency from nearing our profit target. Though our profit target remains at 1.1922, the trader may look to book partial profits if the pair is unable to clear 1.1877 in the coming day of trade, as a continued hold below threatens to keep the shorter-term downtrend intact. Given a break, however, we feel confident that the pair will breach 1.1900 and achieve our full take-profit of 1.1915.[/B]

[B]Event Risk US and Switzerland[/B]
[B]US[/B] - The biggest event risk out the US has already passed now that the FOMC has enacted a sharper-than-expected rate cut. Given the enormity of the policy action, the US Dollar is unlikely to pay heed to economic indicators that are typically big market movers. The leading indicator index for August is estimated to fall 0.4 percent, which is unsurprising given the plunge in equities and dour housing data during the month. Nevertheless, this figure rarely sparks much in the way of price action. On September 25th, consumer confidence is expected to fall lower as rocketing oil prices and recession fears weigh on the minds of Americans. The same morning, existing home sales are predicted to show a sharp drop as the housing collapse wears on. Traders will also be looking at the breakdown of the release for signs that prices are contracting.
[B]Switzerland[/B] - The Swiss franc faces mild event risk this week. First, the trade surplus for the month of August could ease back, as the balance during this particular period tends to be weak year to year. The same morning, producer and import prices are anticipated to edge lower as price growth remained tepid globally during the month of August. On September 25th, the UBS consumption indicator could ease back slightly as domestic demand wanes. However, the figure will likely remain elevated as the economy shows very few signs of distress.
[B]Data for September 20 - September 25[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Data for September 20 - September 25[/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]US Economic Data[/B]
[B][/B]
[B]Date[/B]
[B]Swiss Economic Data[/B]
Sep 20
Leading Indicators (AUG)

        Sep        20
        Trade Balance        (AUG)
           Sep        25
        Consumer        Confidence (SEP)
        
        Sep        20
        Producer and Import Price        (AUG)
           Sep        25
        Existing        Home Sales (AUG)
        
        Sep        25
        UBS Consumption Indicator        (AUG)