[B]Analysis 05/01/2012[/B]
I am treating the rise from the bottom @0.7566 to 0.95885 as part of the long term down trend and there isn’t any signs of a reversal and could be considered part of a consolidation pattern of the whole long term down trend. The rebound from 0.7566 could extend further to 0.99326 which is a major resistance level. For this to happen I are looking for a strong beak of the 0.95885 resistance level and this will be our entry point.
To the downside I am looking for a clean break below 0.85618 which would should extend a test the low of 0.70566. I would not be looking to make a trade that large but a target of 400 to 500 pips would suit this trade. Also to the downside if there is a nice break below 0.89316 that would extend the medium term down movement from 0.95885 to 0.85618. This is a small trade and I will wait and see what the price action looks like when 0.89316 is broken. For the long term down trend to be over and a complete trend reversal I are looking for a break above 1.17301.