Hi all. I’ve been trading for around 7 years now on and off…my return has been interesting so far. I’m not a millionaire yet…I reiterate…YET…however,when you watch the dollar yen the way I do it is literally watching a child grow…each rally, each correction. Is like watching a baby stand up and fall down…quite funny really when you see this happening everyday. But to really appreciate what the DY (dollar/yen) does, I focus on the h4 D1 and 30 min chart…for me??? I have come to appreciate how to translate the way DY behaves…if you spend enough time with DY you will see this. I mean I see the same thing over and over again. Every day…
I will be posting every now and then the way I am translating DY behaviour into pips. Hopefully there are others share this same privilege that I have trained my eyes to see
[QUOTE=“Marob;515695”]Twistedvalor that’s exactly my feeling for the pair as well as Euro/Jpy.
Keep us posted pls![/QUOTE]
It’s crazy but you have to be watching a currency pair so often. I mean Jessie Livermore, the greatest bear of all time clearly stated that he had to train his eyes. Take that context into today’s technical approach to trading…to many people train their eyes to see when the “indicators” start to show signs…I see it like this…why do you need to cloud your judgement by attaching a indicator to the screen…all your doing is covering the baby (DY)…
To be honest with you, the description I initially wanted to put has been deleted but I will explain on Sunday why what I am about to say will occur.
Base on my assumption and my interpretation of the dollar yen, a gap down is going to occur. The only reason I say this is based on the behaviour of the dollar yen during this week and also…I’ve seen this many times…in terms of my metaphor as in the “the baby grows” right now, the baby is about to stamp it’s feet…
So my prediction is this…
The probability of the price gaping down on Sunday is more so in the favour of occurring, purely because of the price action of the week aswell as the news releases by the fed and NFP. Also Gbp/usd is being pushed higher…risk is back on.
Last nights open (Sunday) appeared to show some behaviour of a attempted push back. I anticipated this would happen however I know it would have been short lived. Currently short usd/JPY this week should really be good to see an attempt to hit the previous support lows…
I’m not sure if you can see the picture but based on price action I am lea to believe that there is a probable chance that the candle stick at 10am 5th August showed signs of an attempt by the bulls to stall price going down. However due to price finishing so close to the open of the candle stick and continuation by the bears as shown in the next candle stick may send the dollar yen further to test support…
[QUOTE=“Marob;516207”]Twistedvalor right with ya…all the way…both pairs USD/JPY and Euro/JPY are on their way down all the way too…[/QUOTE]
Dude it’s amazing but earlier you could see the medium sized players trying to show support by getting in because it was “cheaper” at that value. Hence today’s run up from about 10am gmt…I anticipated that the pair would turn down especially after the news. But you have to consider that the big players were dumping previously prior to the news…there’s going to be sum dumping in tonight’s Asian session. DY is gonna cry.
As you can see the kumo cloud has been rejected…as strong resistance from the previous 26 periods so it’s a possibility that the rally may continue to go down to print another cloud…lets see what happens…I’m in short 2.00 lots from 10am this morning so I’m anticipating a further down strike in price…currently the war is in the bears offensive.
Hi guys. The rejection from the cloud on the 4h is potentially looking to test the prior support. I am in short to see where the Asian session takes us.
My stop loss would be in at 97.842…the reason being is because of the behaviour of price action. Anything to return back to the prior attempted close by the bulls on the 4h chart…it’s more a psychological area for me because of the amount of time I have been watching the behaviour today.
[QUOTE=“Marob;516577”]Thank you so much dde0a[/QUOTE]
Marob please tell me you caught that move during the Asian session. DY is trading In tandem, if your in a position look at the 15 min chart. The price action could possibly portraying the bulls trying to push the price back up but the bears offensive keeps trying to push it down. Plus not to forget the big push by the heavyweights…
Dear twistedvalor I caught the price alright and already out with good profits already.
Was waiting for that move since the beginning of the week.
It is exactly as you say trying to push back up but it’s going further down since we have he upcoming speech on inflation by BOJ Kuroda so even if no one acted on pushing up or down the pair as we speak, BOJ will do the job for sure.
In my opinion we should stay clear from all JPY pairs till the end of the speech or if we get a clear and good signal from our technical analysis to go right pulling triggers before it.
Marob I hope you have caught today’s move. As previously discussed. The test of the kumo cloud appeared to be an area of strong resistance. The battle of the bears begins.
Considering that today’s behaviour has been a symbol of… Trend is your friend…dollar yen is actually performing quite well considering that it has truely been showing signs of weekness on the 4h chart…depending on what will happen in today’s Asian session we should be in for a good ride.
