I’ve always had good trades with this currency pair due to its low volatility and predictability. Anyone else long in this pair? I’m thinking it could reach 102 level, it spiked a couple times early today and is still on the rise. Will see what happens at 1am-3am.
Hello there…
Well, it depends whether we are talking short or long term: although this pair has broken an important resistance line from a wedge, it is troubled because it is a battleground between two safe havens, making it subjects to many contradictions. Also, the recent rise on the continued BoJ stimulus effort may be only news up to a point; however, this pair has put in an impressive rally and, objectively, it has risen since about 97.50… I would not buy now, however, as it smells of ‘overbought’ at this level… Maybe, I would wait for the next significant piece of event risk…
The pair has broken through an important line around 101.52, which was support in 1999 and 2005, then turned resistance in 2009 and in 2013; here are the screenshots showing this level in red, chronologically:
There are two concerns here: 1) that this level has only been broken by about thirty pips (so, in the long term, it has not been fully cleared); 2) that an important descending top from 1998 that will meet the 2007high-2010low 0.61 Fib. level around 105 in the early months of 2014:
Even with these concerns in mind, of course,
and even with all the uncertainties of the Bernanke-Yellen switchover in January, there are still about 350 pips between current price and said (105) level, so there could still be short to medium term opportunities.
Let us know how your trade progresses.
Happy trading.
Thanks for the feedback and analysis. I never once understood fib lines and whether they were that important as a tech indicator. I definitely trade this pair short term because there’s always lows after highs and economic results coming out this week that will affect the rally. My trade sizes are 2-4 lots in this pair and I use stop losses just incase since some of my trades are left open overnight. How do you get up to speed with being able to analyze any currency pair? I do take into account the historical price movements and agree it hasnt been this high for a while. Sometimes i wonder if any of this is real or just manipulation and speculation? im thinking the rally was due to the feds raising the debt level, rates remaining low, and the overall sentiment of this pair being that its poised to go higher. how do you analyze those big orders like the ones yesterday evening that spike the currency pair? I’ve seen those and never really understood why those happen but usually see a correction after. Ill let you know how my trade progresses.
My usd/jpy trades hit there take profits overnight :).
Took profit at 101.822 and 101.586 and 101.580 entered at 101.494, 101.407 and 101.686
But Pipmehappy as we know that JPY is weakening so why not USDJPY rise more! It has also broken resistance!
Hello JdBerry and DollarEuro!
Well, you are right: since climbing up from that Fib.level at 99.56 (blue line), this pair looks poised to reach lofty heights: however, I am not sure that Yen weakness alone will push this further, but I am just awaiting confermation that the correction in the past few hours is not continuing to the downside; if it were so, this would indicate a false breakout of that historic level that I mentioned earlier (see the thick red line):
Happy trading.
Hi Pipmehappy
Situation is complex. The YEN wreaking effect should have been in effect by now, but no effect.The breakout not yet proved to be false as you have mentioned! So hard to predict where it will go after the consolidation between 101.8 to 101.6 but overall my bias will be on the buying side of this pair.
Cheers
Same here! Not holding any positions in the usd/jpy at this moment. Waiting for it to surge pass the 102 mark or it might do a pull back below 101.6 I’m thinking. I used to scalp when currencies move in a range as in this case but not doing that anymore, rather ride out the start of a trend and it appears to be weakening.
Dollareuro and jberry,
you are right, of course!
Out of interest, have you seen how
the USD/JPY is now back under that resistance level (red line)? We are at the 101.5(x) mark…
And there it is ! What goes up must come down plus stocks were up today so I figure this pair would correct itself, this is mostly due to home sales being down for the US.
Well, JBerry, hold your fire!
Look at what happened, minutes later:
…
Well, a complete correction…
What will happen overnight?
Jberry: did your 101.686 order get stopped out?
Happy trading.
I took my profits early this morning! 
If this parity is very good also I found that it is proportionally inverse to the EURUSD and when one climbs further down and so it is possible to open orders in the opposite direction
Now what?
Lower jobless claim moving it up!
Yes, this pair is becoming one reliable pair. I appreciate their volatility which is low and its liquidity as well. This could even be a potential major pair.
