Hey guys!!
I have gone long on USD/JPY at 10988 level - looking to stay in all the way up to 11400 level if possible - stop loss around 10815 level just below previous low in case pair tries to retest support.
I am looking for positive non-farm payroll data to push price past 11100 level but will have to wait and see. Anyone else trading this one at the moment?
Hi Chris,
Like you, our analyst Fawad Razaqzada believes “The next key support below this week’s low is at 108.15, this year’s low, followed by 106.85-90 zone.”
In his article today about USD/JPY, he says “This pair is now testing liquidity above last week’s range i.e. above 109.85 area. If there is acceptance above this level then the sellers may abandon their bearish positions further and the buyers may increase theirs. However if this turns out to be another false bullish signal then price may eventually drop below this week’s low of 108.30 area, below which there is a large pool of liquidity is surely resting now (i.e. buyers’ stop loss orders).”
Me too, I think you are on the right track. Price broke out of the descending channel during the Asian session yesterday. I expect a measured move to the start of that channel. Hope this encourages you, and best of luck on the charts.
Thank you steveepperson!
lost a few pips today but as you said it may be that it is coming back down to the upper channel/trend line for a retest - thinking direction will be given tomorrow.
MA’s and MACD still showing upward momentum and RSI with green MACD bars still pushing (forgive my ignorance - what is technical name for these bars!?) - also RSI is still hanging above 50 level so bullish momentum is still there.
Also looks on 4 hourly chart like price is retesting 10990 level - Hope to see rebound off of here and then push higher.
Am I talking total rubbish or is there some sense to this analysis? hahaha
Hey togr,
Where did you get in and what system do you use?
I wouldn’t be long here with _bobs money, but that’s why we speculate. Support around 109.70 if it bases below that, look out below. Also it has broken out of the channel twice before on the daily and then resumed its downward flow, will the third time reverse out of the channel, stay tuned for more of “As The EURO Churns”. Two hurricanes in the mix, well we will see.
The Never Churning VIPER
Very good points viper - May the odds be ever in my favour.
From your last comment are you speculating on the Euro? - looking at different Euro pairs it seems it could go either way - overall bearish on Euro at the moment though - I am thinking we could see some real bearish pressure after this announcement on 7th September (I think it is)
And may the Evens ever be in mine. Actually I am speculating on getting another shot of Moonshine. I am on Vacay till the middle of Sept. But since you ask, at this point I trade EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and I hope to add NZD/CHF. Yes I am strange. If the fed flips back to Hike, you better believe the EURO will be under pressure.
The Ever Gonna Git That Shine Now VIPER
I do trade based on fractals, these indies are real beauty.
So here is the view from under the log. 180 and above, we will be lower yen. Butt if there is a surprise, as there sometimes is in the Aug #s, then it will be higher yen. None of this is a big secret, but the interesting part, is to watch the price action to see if the positive numbers don’t have much of an effect, this will mean the numbers were “baked in”. Anyway if I was trading this morning I would be on the sidelines till well after the announcement.
The Ever Eating Bagels And Lox VIPER
And there you go, Dollar weaker, due to below expected numbers, so again, long dollars in pain. Understand that right now the Yen is considered “flight to safety”. The US will raise the debit ceiling, and will have trouble with the “Tax Reform”, all of this adds to JPY strength.
The Ever Trending VIPER
Respectfully, I disagree with, [quote=“steveepperson, post:3, topic:112404”]
Hope this encourages you, and best of luck on the charts.
[/quote]
There is no encouragement in trading, no hope, no positive outlook. There is only the trade, profitable and not profitable, high probability, low probability, nothing more nothing less. Encouragement is for children, traders should have no need for such crutches.
The Never Trying To Be Obnoxious VIPER
Look at the action right now, this is why rookies should stay out of these types of events, Basically a one min spike down, and I know somebody was in thinking a continued downtrend for the pair, now a retrace and what might turn out to be a spike up, Very, Very dangerous waters. Better to defend your capital and profits by just being a spectator.
The Ever Spectating VIPER
And back to the mean, funny thing about reverting to the mean, ain’t it.
The Ever Watchful VIPER
choppy water a the moment on this trade - to be honest I wish North Korea would just be quiet for a while but doesn’t look like that is going to happen - some great points TradeViper
For now indicators are all showing bearish momentum but I am pleased to see that with all the fundamentals and geopolitical tensions currently surrounding the pair there have been no dives in price - suggesting there is still bullish pressure backing the pair - still in with a chance of making a few pips of this one I feel - only one way to find out.
I am happy with my stop loss placement - happy to be out for sure if it reaches this level.
M, I applaud you use of 4 hr, well done. Also if this trade turns negative, don’t forget to analyze it, and learn from it, and write it in your journal. I think the upside level, in other words where price would have caught and gone back up would have been around 109.70, I think that to have gone back positive it would have bounced at .70. Now it is basing below that level, so quite possibly lower. But that is as they say “Speculation” 
The Ever Speculating VIPER
