I can see an excellent entrance to the usd/jpy market after reaching the 121.24 level. The price will go down.
So you are going to go short at 121.24? What if the price continues higher? Where will you get out? Where will you go long?
-Adrian
I can see an excellent entrance to the usd/jpu market after reaching the 120.90 level. The price will go down.
taking positions of USDJPY based on news tommorow and article from EFXNews
As attention is turning to the BoJ at the end of the week, RBS and Goldman Sachs examine the potential response of USD/JPY to possible BoJ actions. RBS’ base case is for no BoJ easing on Friday, while GS sees further easing at this meeting.
RBS:
"1- If the BoJ stays on hold and only marginally lowers forecasts, dollar-yen will fall sharply back into its recent 115-120 range.
2- If the BoJ is unchanged but significantly downgrades forecasts, dollar-yen will likely be bought on the dip below 119-120
3- If the BoJ eases modestly by only raising ETF, REIT purchases, dollar-yen will succumb to profit-taking and fall below 120
4- If the BoJ eases sharply by raising its ¥80trn a year JGB buying, dollar-yen will trade in a higher 120-125 range," RBS argues.
"We think the probabilities for the BoJ’s four scenarios above are 40%, 30%, 15% and 15% respectively.
-Our base case remains no easing this Friday and a sharp post-meeting bounce in the yen." RBS projects.
Goldman Sachs:
- "Our Japan economists have long held expectations of easing at the 30 October BoJ meeting on the back of weak activity and declining inflation expectations
-Our base case is for the BoJ to undertake: a maturity extension of existing JGB purchases, an increase in the run-rate of JGB purchases from 80 to 90 JPYtn per year, and an increase in ETF purchases from 3 to around 5 JPYtn, GS projects.
“The call this week is a close one, but even if policy is unchanged at this week’s meeting we think the BoJ will ultimately need to loosen policy as their inflation forecast moves further out of sight – we see further $/JPY upside as a result,” GS adds.
"We think $/JPY should move through 125 in the wake of the meeting should the BoJ ease as we expect.
With further upside expected from our base case and with an IOER cut an outside chance, the risk-reward in long $/JPY looks favourable into the meeting," GS advises.
I can’t see a favorable opening for a deal right now. Therefore, I’ll wait to see which of the variants is the right one.
It seems to me that the asset will go for breaking the upper bound after reflecting from the bottom line.
I expect the price to grow up to 117 level approximately. Around this level I will set the take profit order.
Well, the asset moves as I’ve predicted. I think that I can earn even more on USDJPY! Definitely, the show must go on =)
Right now, I can’t see the entrance for opening a deal on the asset, so I’ll wait until the price reaches one of the levels, and then I’ll make a decision.
Price is now testing H1 wedge patterns support. I think that it is more likely for price to move higher to 114.80, 114.90. Even test daily wedge resistance at 116.70. Because it needs to correct itself to the upside after such big drop down.
Well, the asset moves as I’ve predicted. I think that I can earn even more on USD/JPY! Definitely, the show must go on =)
From my BLOG
Planning short term bounce in USDJPY
On the 30min chart, usdjpy is 400 half hour periods away from the 200sma which is very overextended. I’m looking for a short term bounce, but very aware of how strong this trend is, so reduced trade size is in order. If I get a half hour close above the recent resistance at 108.33, I’m looking to buy with a stop bellow the middle bollinger band, looking for 109.00.
