USD/RUB traded higher yesterday and today, after it hit support at the crossroads of the 73.35 level and the upside support line drawn from the low of October 26th. However, the recovery was stopped today, near the 74.45 area. Given that the rate remains above the aforementioned upside line, we would consider the short-term picture to be positive.
However, in order to get confident on larger advances, we would like to see a break above the 74.45 zone. This could encourage advances towards the high of November 30th, at 75.15, the break of which could extend the advance towards the peak of November 26th, at 75.90. If the bulls are not willing to stop there either, then we could see them climbing towards the 77.05 zone, which is defined as a resistance by the highs of April 20th and 21st.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI emerged above its 50 line, but has flattened thereafter, while the MACD lies above both its zero and trigger lines. Both indicators detect upside speed, which is inline with the view on further advances. However, the flattening of the RS is another reason we prefer to wait for a move above 74.45 before we get more confident on that.
The outlook could turn bearish upon a break below 73.35. Such a dip will not only confirm the break below the pre-mentioned upside line, but also a forthcoming lower low. The bears could then get encouraged to push towards the low of November 17th, at 72.30, the break of which may see scope for extensions towards an intraday inside swing high formed on November 11th, at 71.30. If that barrier is not able to halt the slide either, then we could see the bears diving towards the low of the day before, at 70.50.
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