USD: The speech by Powell confirms bearish USD claims

In his first round of Congressional testimony, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was successful in delivering a strongly dovish message, offering some temporary support to battered US bonds. The Fed’s reiteration of a looser strategy for longer and the lack of signal for any decrease in bond purchases irrespective of the strengthened economic outlook remains a key point in favor of a generalized dollar decline from the FX viewpoint, as well as in favor of the relative outperformance of emerging market FX and G10 commodity currencies. Despite Powell’s deliberate dismissal of concerns about unsustainable inflationary pressures, President Biden’s major fiscal stimulus is intended to keep the inflation expectations of markets supported, which will continue to deliver an unattractive real-rate profile for the dollar, coupled with anchored front-end rate expectations. Powell will talk again before the House Financial Services panel, but as we are likely to hear a large reiteration of the message, the market effect could be more minimal. Otherwise, only low-market impact housing data is included in the US data calendar.