Anyone here in an open trade for this pair?
Not IâŚ
but I should alert anyone looking at TRY this week
that on Thursday the CBRT will be announcing its
rate decision, which is expected to be a significant
rise.
http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Announcements/Calendar
Watch out for incredibly sharp movesâŚ
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Hoo boy. Thanks for the heads up!
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I had no idea, thanks for the warning!
EurTry dropped nearly 5000 pips (5 min.chart below):
I am not trading TRY right now. Clearly bias is still long but itâs too hard to read so Iâm out for now.
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Very confused pictureâŚEveryone screams COLLAPSE OF TURKISH ECONOMY but the Lira is not going any lower.
Hello, itâs been a long time since we were trading GBP/NZD. I just came to this forum to drop you a note and say hello. I then read the interview you did for Babypips regarding your trading EUR/TRY.
I have had a successful and profitable year. Most of my profits have come from trading weekly basket of currency pairs.
Anyway, Iâm glad you are still around. I hardly ever visit this forum anymore. Iâve been coming to follow the journey of Mike Wolski. It has been interesting reading. Iâll drop by more often and follow your thread.
Best regards
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Hey Yohec,
good to hear that you are having a good year!
I am still struggling with trading but my life away from trading is coming together quite well bit by bit and it feels good.
I have not read all of Mikeâs thread but it is a worthwhile read. Like you, I spend less time here than I used to. I stopped trading TRY as too expensive. Now just trying a passive buy-and-hold elsewhere.
Gone, gone, gone are the days of GBPNZD!!
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I donât trade USD/TRY but out of curiosity I looked at the long term charts. Here is the monthly chart.
If USD/TRY follows the Hype Cycle, then it is just entering the âBlow off Phaseâ and should continue dropping a long way.
Similar to what happened with oil price from the 1990âs to 2009.
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I just noticed another thread called âUSDTRY Short for the forseeableâ. So, I agree, lol.
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Nice chart, Yohec.
I do think that the politics of Turkey have had such an effect on the Lira that it is impossible to view USDTRY or EURTRY as a technical short opportunity.
Similar stories happen in other parts of the world: take the example of Iran and Argentina, and look at these chartsâŚ
What you can see is the monthly charts of USDIRR (Iranian Rial) and USDARS (Argentinian Peso) respectively. Now, if anyone could predict how and when either of these hype cycles will turn âŚwell, congratulations!
The fact is, both these examples show ten years of bullish momentum⌠While it is tempting to.call a top on these, I would think that if the politics have had such an impact on the currency then unless Turkish politics show change there may not be more Lira selling but there certainly may not be buying eitherâŚ
So unless anyone can wait until the next Turkish presidential electionâŚ
Moving on! 
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TRY gets a little boost as pastor Brunson is released from TurkeyâŚ
However, EurTry and UsdTry are still between the all-time high and the first (0.23) Fib retracement of the entire (ten-year) rally. Turkeyâs policies on the economy have not changed, so this may just be a temporary halt in the rally.
The Turkish Lira remains an uncertain investmentâŚ
We just returned from a holiday in Turkey (well you would - wouldnât you ? ) and found it a great place. Full of English, Scots, Irish, Welsh, Germans and apparently Russians (although we didnât see many).
We each had to pay $20 for a âVisaâ - altough this was instantly granted electronically and nobody ever checked that we had one.
Diesel and imported spirits like âScotchâ ran at around 3/4 of Uk prices. The most (to me) surprising part was that the cars and motor cycles were equally âNewâ as here in the uk. It was explained that the reason was that there was âNo taxâ applied. This we took as a mantra and instead of saying âcheeseâ when being photographed we took to saying âNo taxâ - difficult not to smile ! 
The people seemed to have immense freedom (which made me rather jealous - it reminded me in some ways of the way England was in the 1960âs - but more so ! ) and those we dealt with were perfectly comfortable dealing in turkish lira, Euros and GBP. They did mental calculations and the exchange rates were pretty much the same as I got officially by walking in to at Western union (7.50 per GBP) whereas the best I could get before we went was 7.95.
We ate out every night and a meal for the two of us was beautifully cooked to order and typically 350 gram (3/4 lb) fillet steak (for me) with veg curry for 'er complimentary starters, 5-6 beers, bottle of decent wine, couple of ârakisâ and ran at ÂŁ25-ÂŁ30 total (including 10-15% tip) ! (we wanted to try the âpudding listâ but never had room ! This was in beautiful surroundings with very attentive waiter service and no pressure whatever to vacate. Generally the ânative eateriesâ were far better than the âEngish clonesâ ones plugged by the Hotel.
When we speak of âeconomic policyâ and look around you at these people - working 12 hours a day, 7 days a week, with the prospect of 5 months âoffâ come âwinterâ and apply the principle of âNo taxâ
And then look at their âNatonal debtâ - of around 24% of GDP (check you own country ! ) - One really has to wonder Why TF would they want to âjoin the Euroâ ?
Sadly, I think If they do âget acceptedâ - they will be doomed to go the way of Greece, Italy and SPain ! - Sucked dry by the âEuro lendersâ like any âbanana republicâ used to be sucked dry by the IMF !
Yes we were in âtourist landâ - but Geez - the amount of âHard Currencyâ entering the land is huge - some of the people we met were on their 18 holiday there in 9 years !
Trump complains elsewhere of âCurrency manipulationâ by China - but my suspicion is that the current exchange rate with USDTRY looks suspiciously like the same thing !
Of course nothing in this post should be taken as a âRecommendâ - but as we know - Well - Iâm a contrarian ! 
[Edit - Oh incidentally, we were in a Muslim country with the âCall to prayerâ every few hours, and yet we only saw One lady wearing the âpillar box outfitâ as it was described by âBorisâ - My suspicion was that she was in fact âEnglishâ 
]
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Hi Falstaff, welcome back from your wonderful holiday.
As an Italian I constantly get a lot of excellent reports from people who go to Italy on holiday and say how wonderful it all is. But anecdotal holiday stories do not define the real situation of working people, or corruption, or the state of its prisons, or its fiscal pressures.
I have no doubt that holidays in Turkey are something that everyone should try, but the tens of thousands of journalists, civil servants, and teachers languishing in its jails would undoubdtedly have a perspective that is rather different, would you not agree?
Sorry mate, I donât have my âRescuerâ hat on atm
I understand they had a âfailed coupâ fairly recently ?
We still went to both Cuba and USA during the âGuantanamo Bayâ period,
It was the British who invented âConcentration Campsâ so eagerly adopted by the Germans.
What of the thousands imprisoned without hope in the âGaza Stripâ ?
I understand âTreasonâ is one of the few âCapital offencesâ left in the uk.
However as you say - you are Italian ? - do you think Italy is better or worse off now, having adopted the Euro ?