USD/TRY: an incredible pair

Italy’s problems have long preceded the single currency and to blame the European project for its ills is a cheap electoral slogan à la Brexit for voters who cannot handle complexity.

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We’ll have to take that as a “yes” (it’s worse off) then - at least when it was an independent currency, any such problems could be alleviated by adjustment of the currency and tourists would flock there to spend hard currency :smile:

Now it is “locked in” - there is no escape from the “Debt Barons” and prices cannot be adjusted to attract customers.

No, it’s not as simple as that.

Mostly, these things are fairly simple, if one is prepared to accept that the propaganda of those with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo can be questioned and that a certain amount of personal cognitive dissonance is inevitable when attempting to gain the truth !
In this context, the activities of the IMF and others in enslaving the “banana republics” could just be viewed as a blueprint for the “Euro-zone”.
I’m not saying it is pleasant reading, BUT it is (or should be) – Essential reading !

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Grip-Death-Slavery-Destructive-Economics/dp/1897766408/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1539607054&sr=8-1&keywords=grip+of+death

Italy’s debt-to-GDP troubles stem from its own INDEPENDENT banking and fiscal policies of the 1980s.

It has zero to do with the current fixation on the EU as the source of all woes.

Firstly, the book is not about the Euro, it is about the banking system in general and specifically about the creation of money out of thin air, which the “Banks” then lend out and charge interest on.

The “loans” to the “banana republics” were then recorded in (generally) US$ and therefore the “republics” were forced to produce cash crops (bananas) which had to be sold for dollars to repay this “debt” whilst the populations went hungry as the land could not now be used to grow food!

The debt which Italy “owed” was (if what you say is correct) incurred in Lira, which was to an extent under the control of the Italian Govt and could be devalued as per my post above. This appears to have been transferred to Euros – and is now cast in stone and cannot be either devalued or paid without great hardship to the population. Just like those “banana Republics”

Now if you take that as a criticism of the Euro, I can see your point, although it could also be viewed as simply a reflection on the relative GDPs of Italy and the “Big Boys” of the currency.

My view is that the EU is far too diverse and wide for the many different economies of it’s individual countries to be locked together for ever as a single currency without the possibility for adjustment according to prevailing conditions of their local economies. – Hellfire – our whole ethos here is to observe and gamble on precisely those same adjustments for other nations!

Now, I would love to continue this discussion, if it could be split off into another thread, but am well aware that we are digressing from the USDTRY and we both seem to be inclined to think that the “trend” is completing, if not actually over.

I’ll leave it there mate :smile:

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oh okay, that is a different view…

Yes, the single currency has its problems… we all agree.

No problem, digressions are good sometimes!

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https://ahvalnews.com/economy/even-brunson-freed-turkeys-economy-still-trouble-fp

Like as the bubble on bitcoin, I think this pair USDTRY also will back to normal movement, because condition on Turkey I think as the government also will do something that required to make condition been stable, its movement only temporary phenomenon

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Don’t know whether this might help to get a feel of teh dangers and in fact “poison” of locking diverse nations together financially, but it does have quite a bearing on the “Italian issue” as well !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_oET45GzMI

[Edit - note particularly the attitudes and responses of those the “remainists” regard as friends and benefactors !

  • There is a doctrine which says “people do not change” - ]
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I think the debate on Brexit is framed in a debased and inflamatory way, much like the two (failed) Québec independence referenda and the more recent (also failed) Scottish independence referendum: the issue is that closer integration of some kind is always preferable to inward-looking isolationism. Catalans, Scots, Brits, Québecois, Northern Italians: the list of separatist groups goes on and on. What is often behind this is a need for change rather than a rational look at the pros and cons: that is how new governments, even the most unlikely ones, are voted in after a major party has been in office for several years. The documentary that you posted is very good at demonstrating that any new radical policy that alters the wheels of the economy - whether Thatcher’s liberalism, Major’s ERM join-up, Blair’s credit bubble - usually impacts the poorest the hardest when it fails to deliver or gets out of control.

The argument of Brexit will remain unresolved because nobody knows the future - which includes natural disasters - so even the strongest country wil need allies that are geographically close, in a time of need. When Ireland was hit by austerity, it was not aided by far-flung countries but mainly by its closest geographical partner, yes, the United Kingdom.

Canada and Mexico mean a lot to the US due to their geographical closeness as well as their economic importance. We cannot write away geography: it is best to look for economic ties with your neighbours before looking further afield.

Not many brokers offer this pair because of volatility and uncertainty. Hotforex and Tickmill are the ones which have this pair active on their platform. Do you know any other brokers which offer this pair for trading?

Oanda… FXCM… IG…

I do not give up easily: I opened a new demo account with FXCM (worth £5,000) and entered a long-term position, short EUR/TRY, to see whether this time it really is reversing from its all-time highs.

I will do what I was attempting most of 2018, that is to accrue carry on a short EUR/TRY position.

EUR/TRY has a better carry than USD/TRY but it tracks the latter’s movements with almost 100% correlation, so when I talk about EUR/TRY it is relevant to this thread - EUR/USD has nothing to do with it.

EurTry climbed about 1500 pips this morning on a rumour that on Thursday the Turkish central bank will hold rates unchanged.

I closed 14k out of my 37k position.

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EurTry looking bearish:

It has retreated back below the 0.23 Fib retracement of the all-time-low to all-time-high range since its temporary break above it yesterday morning.

The gap between the 0.23 and 0.38 Fib levels on this broad range is over 9000 pips.

Getting through that range may be difficult, so be mindful of the risks as well as the rewards.

At 37k you get 0.50 per pip, for example, so you can do the sums…

EurTry and UsdTry continue dropping…

EurTry dropped about 1200 pips through this morning:

They still support USDTRY and EURTRY? Was it the case during Turkish crisis two month ago?

Got the pair inactive at my tickmill and hotforex platforms back then, missed great opportunity to buy TRY :frowning:

But now it works good, volatility keeps bringing profit.