Following last week historic plunge due to intervention tactics by the Turkish government and central bank, USD/TRY entered a recovery mod after hitting support at 10.20 on December 23rd and is now showing respect to an upside support line taken from the low of December 24th. In our view, this has changed the short-term picture back to positive.
We believe that a break above 13.40 could initially target the peak of December 21st, at 14.00, where another break could extend the advance towards the high of December 13th, at 14.60. If the bulls are not willing to stop there either, then a break higher could carry larger bullish implications, perhaps paving the way towards the inside swing low of December 17th, at 15.63.
Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI moved higher, and it now lies slightly below its 70 line. However, it ticked down again. The MACD runs above both its zero and trigger lines. Both indicators detect upside speed, which supports the case for further advances in this exchange rate, but the fact that the RSI ticked down makes us careful over a potential pullback before the next leg north.
On the downside, we would like to see a clear dip below today’s low of 12.40 before we switch our view to bearish. This could confirm the break below the aforementioned upside line taken from the low of December 24th. The bears could first target the 11.90 barrier, marked by the inside swing high of December 28th, where a break could see scope for declines towards the low of December 27th, at 10.75, or the low of December 23rd, at 10.20.
Disclaimer:
The content we produce does not constitute investment advice or investment recommendation (should not be considered as such) and does not in any way constitute an invitation to acquire any financial instrument or product. The Group of Companies of JFD, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees are not liable for any damages that may be caused by individual comments or statements by JFD analysts and assumes no liability with respect to the completeness and correctness of the content presented. The investor is solely responsible for the risk of his investment decisions. Accordingly, you should seek, if you consider appropriate, relevant independent professional advice on the investment considered. The analyses and comments presented do not include any consideration of your personal investment objectives, financial circumstances or needs. The content has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements for financial analyses and must therefore be viewed by the reader as marketing information. JFD prohibits the duplication or publication without explicit approval.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68.02% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with the Company. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please read the full Risk Disclosure.
Copyright 2021 JFD Group Ltd.