USDCAD Technical Analysis 18th March 2019

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Stephen W

I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.

Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel & Co Trading in Watford, I am here to take on the game and prove the naysayers wrong. Come and join my journey as I release my weekly technical analysis and results of last weeks predictions, opening the floor to feedback, open conversation and other peoples opinions… I look forward to engaging with you all.

Here is my technical analysis outlook on USDCAD moving into the second half of March 2019.

Weekly -

USDCAD Weekly 14th March 2
USDCAD Weekly 14th March 21763×842 97.5 KB

(source: www.uk.tradingview.com)

As you can see from the weekly chart, the price has been forming oh so sweetly within this textbook ascending channel since August 2017. Moving towards the backend of last year (2018), the price had once again rejected the top of the channel trendline around the 1.366 level and began its next bearish run down towards the bottom of the channel. After reaching the bottom of the channel around 1.31, you can see price used the weekly 50ema as dynamic resistance twice throughout the course of Feb 2019, suggesting this market is prepping for its next bull run back to the top of the channel, around 1.366.

Daily -

USDCAD Daily 14th March
USDCAD Daily 14th March1762×849 114 KB

(source: www.uk.tradingview.com)

Using a top-down approach for entry and moving onto the daily chart, you can clearly see that price has been forming an inverse head and shoulder pattern since the beginning of 2019. With price breaking through the neckline at the beginning of March around the 1.334 level we have seen a rejection/pullback around the 1.36 area. After 4 days of selling off, I thought I’d pull out my trusty Fib retracement tool only to find that price decided to reject the 0.5 Fib level, alongside some dynamic resistance from the daily 50ema… once again signalling to me that this market is setting up for its next push up. Upon entering this market my target would be the previous high of Jan 2019 - 1.36500 level… What are your thoughts?

Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not be taken as financial advice.

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Great analysis :+1:t2:

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I don’t feel comfortable buying the USD against in any pair with the USD Index price at resistances that were firmly established in November 2016 and 2015.

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Nice analysis looks like its on the move higher,

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I’ve a LONG open in my demo account at the moment. Same analysis with the Fib levels, but missed the head and shoulders. Thanks!

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Thanks for your reply AUdvantages, although i must admit i’m not too sure your reasoning for this? As the high of DXY in Nov 2015 was around 100.50 and the high in Nov 2016 was 102.00… Move forward to today and the index is currently sitting around 96.60 (at the time of writing this)… Meaning we still have around 4-500 pips of movement left to the upside before we hit those resistance areas?! (see below).

CAD2015-16 highs
CAD2015-16 highs1694×802 141 KB

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No problems WillfulNegligence… thanks for the feedback, best of luck with the demo account!

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Thanks for sharing Stephen, cant argue with your technical analysis.

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Great analysis, perfectly mirrors my own analysis before I went long on this pair aiming for highs of 1.36-1.365 level.

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I was referring to Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish (UUP - NASDAQ) which relates to the major currencies which may not be the perfect metric. Either way, being near highs makes for downside risks.

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Thanks for your response AUdvantages… I’ll keep it in mind :wink:

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My trade just blew up. Price dropped out of the ascending channel and kept going. CAD strengthened against all GBP, EUR as well.

Live, learn.

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Top technical analysis Stephen. Nice read!

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You’re welcome.

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it did exactly what you said it would, that head and shoulders pattern is for real lol I like your markups. It’s similar to how I analyze the pairs

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great analysis…i also been watching this pair since 2018…n have made profit with this pair…so from your analysis i now know im in rite track .thank u

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