[B]• Euro Triangle Still Favored
• Japanese Yen Tests 105
• British Pound Low In Place?
• Swiss Franc Extending
• Canadian Dollar at 200 Day SMA
• Australian Dollar Tests 200 day SMA
• New Zealand Dollar Still Bearish [/B]
[B]SEE A DESCRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE
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Commentary[/B]: We wrote yesterday that “there are a few possibilities right now with the EURUSD but the one that seems most probable is that a triangle is unfolding in wave 4 within the 5 wave advance from the June low at 1.3261. Triangles unfold in 5 waves so is a triangle is forming now, then the EURUSD will find a bottom near term and advance towards the upper resistance line near 1.4700 or so.” The pair did find a bottom and the rally from 1.4365 is viewed as wave d within the a-b-c-d-e triangle. Look for resistance in the 1.4740 area for this leg of the triangle. The next leg of the triangle will be lower in wave e in order to complete larger wave 4 before the thrust higher in wave 5 through 1.50.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
[B]Commentary[/B]: We wrote yesterday that “the short term bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 107.92. There is no change to our targets that lie below 100.00.” The USDJPY countinues to plummet in what we view as a third of a third wave within the 5 wave bear cycle from 124.13. We continue to show the daily chart because there is no reason to ‘look for a bottom’ when evidence is strong that the pair is in a third of a third wave. Risk can be moved to 106.59.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Roomfor specific resources geared towards this currency.
[B]Commentary[/B]: We wrote yesterday that “the drop to 1.9337 might have formed a tradeable bottom. One count in the GBPUSD suggests that a multi-week low is in place as there are 5 waves down from 2.1160. Under this count, the decline from 2.1160 is either wave A or 1 in a 3 or 5 wave bear cycle. Under this count, the pair is expected to rally in either wave B or 2.” One reason why we favor this count is that the line extended from the bottom of wave 1 and 3 defends the bottom of what is now wave 5.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Bullish against 1.9337, target TBD
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
[B]Commentary[/B]: We still favor the idea that the USDCHF decline is extending as long as price is below 1.1122. The advance from 1.0836 to 1.1122 is clearly in 3 waves, indicating that the move is countertrend and that a new low will be registered. Be aware that the decline from 1.1122 is probably a 5th wave (of larger 3). An objective is where wave 5 equals 61.8% of waves 1 through 3 – at 1.0553.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Bearish, move risk to 1.1122 (from 1.1190), target 1.0560
[B]Commentary[/B]: Near term, the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves and is either wave C of an A-B-C rally from .9055 or is just wave 1 of either a larger C or 3. Given that the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves, weakness is expected to at least 1.0124 (1/15 low) – which is defended by the 38.2% of .9755-1.0305 at 1.0094. We’ll look for an opportunity to get long near this support.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
[B]Commentary[/B]: Please see our special report on the AUDUSD from last week. The near term picture has been a mess recently….very choppy and difficult to manage risk. On the daily chart, the decline from .9400 could be the beginning of something much bigger (as discussed in the special report) and the pair is putting the 200 day SMA to the test right now. The next potential support level is the 61.8% of .7673-.9400 at .8333.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Flat
[B]Commentary[/B]: The decline is not complete. Price needs to come at least under .7365 (wave A) before we can begin looking for a bottom. Also, the decline from .7933 is wave iii of C so even a corrective rally in wave iv will give way to lower prices. A potential terminus for the decline is the 61.8% of 6639-.7891 at .7118. The bearish is bias as long as price is below .7933.
[B]Strategy[/B]: Bearish now, against .7933, target TBD
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ?: Slope of the 200 day SMA
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