Interesting. You are running a fund now? What is it that you do trading wise.
No, although Fxcm offer that on certain pairs, but it is hard to know which participants it tracks (retail?).
I use futures volume for general ideas around trend but only in an interpretative way, not quantifying it.
This volume thread had a lot of good stuff: did yoh have a look at it?
Also, talking about the forum futures.io, I spotted this thread:
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For the trial trades I am looking at NZDUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD. Trend trading break outs.
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Thanks that looks very useful. I will have a look at it. Bookmarked.
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Gosh, the Kiwi kept me busy for many months…I have no clue where it is at…
This pair was the stuff of legends in early/mid-2015:
NZDUSD has been in a wonderful uptrend on the H4 for some time, which now seems to be reversing, I got in short at just the right time it seems, where the change in the moving average 50 bars was at a turning point and the price broke our of the 3 sigma.
I tried to hedge the downside till March 14. So far so good, but we will have to see. Do you breakout trade? I am looking for new entries on this method. So far I have:
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Indicator with the change in the MA 50 - when the change crosses zero so there is a trend direction change or if you’re unlucky just an inflection point.
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Short term confirmation with the Stochastic at 15,8,8.
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Breakout from sigma 3 on the price action
I’m going to spend the next couple of months putting together better signals for the breakout. a lot of testing to do. I am looking for ways to predict the magnitude of the move as compared the to 14 bar ATR in between trending periods.
I am sure there most be a property to determine that as ATR usually correlates pretty well and this is the ATR effectively with the only difference being that the time intervals are not fixed to single bar units.
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There is precision, depth, complexity and statistical thinking in your approach, but it is all a bit of an unknown to me (sigma, delta, options, etc.) so I really have nothing more to contribute here, and
I do not trade breakouts either.
However, I will check into this thread from time to time, and I look forward to seeing what you have posted.
Until then
Best of luck and…
Happy Trading!
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I’m reitred.
I got into institutional trading in the late 1980’s (when it was much easier than it is now!).
I made the mistake of retiring early with almost no hobbies (and very little family) and am bored. I trade forex futures (and some spot forex, still) from home, so I’m a “retail trader” like most here.
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So are your typing skills. 
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Interesting. What trading strategy do you use I mean.
You resurfaced. I didn’t hear back from you on the question that I posed.
No answer?
Why don’t we agree in that case that you continue to stay off my threads or respond to anything else that I post, and I will do the same. I have had a quick look at your posting history and I see that you are incorrigible with this stuff.
Wow that was very nice thank you. We will have to see if this plays out well or not i’ll keep you posted.
Sigma 3 = 3 Standard Deviations from the SMA. I am using Bollinger Bands for that so if the trend curve changes direction (SMA[1] - SMA[2] the change in the SMA crosses zero) and then the price breaks out of the Bollinger band @ 3 standard deviations soon after.
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I’ll try to do that, when I remember.
I want to add something else, though.
I apologise to you for the earlier, now-removed post I made. Having discussed it now in some detail both with Pipstradamus (who was very helpful) and Lukas (likewise) I now realise that my post came across as very critical and rude, and I’m sorry about that, Ropunzel.
Believe it or not, that honestly wasn’t my intention in writing it.
I think my intention when I originally posted it was a combination of “wanting to try to help to re-orientate your thinking” (perhaps not my business at all to try to do that!) and exasperation at my own inability to explain to you why I think you’re barking up the wrong tree with this.
No offence was intended. I accept from your reaction that some was taken, and that was my fault, not yours.
It frustrates me, after my 30 years in the markets in various different capacities, to see someone so highly intelligent and highly educated as you with general perspectives around trading (as far as I understand yours, from what you’ve posted here) which in my unsolicited and doubtless most unwelcome opinion aren’t particularly helpful ones.
Nevertheless, I shouldn’t have interfered, maybe shouldn’t have tried to say so at all, and certainly shouldn’t have done so in a way that (I now see) came across so rudely.
Good wishes and good luck to you, Ropunzel, and I’ll avoid your threads (as I long as I remember to, which I think I probably can), if you want.
Sorry!
Charles
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Shorted EurTry as at record highs and showing signs of turning, like UsdTry… Daily swap for selling is £3.9 for a £10k position with Fxcm, so if you invested, say, £100k (roughly £2/pip), it would be £39 daily swap plus x3 on a Wednesday night, so £39x3(Mon, Tue, Thu night) + £39x3(Wed night)= £39x6= £234/week.
If you held a £100k short trade for four trading weeks (roughly one month) it would then yield £234x4= £936.
Not bad…
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Looks interesting. The Sto 15,8,8 on D1 suggests now might be a good time to sell. I noticed that the spreads are very high - currently 102.7 pips with IC Markets although that might be because it is the weekend.
100k sounds very high, although I must say I am not sure exactly what you mean. Do you mean to have an SL that contains a 100k risk? What would be the balance of your account in that case. So far I have got a daily swap of £12.58 short with an SL of 1155 pips that contains just 1k risk.
So if you were working with a 10k prospective loss in an SL of 2310 pips that would yield roughly 440.3 a week.
I think that there are opportunities here, but I haven’t settled on a way to trade it yet: overnight scalp on Wednesday or trading a bearish trend or bearish correction over a few days. I think the latter has more risk. 10k in a 100k account is a hefty chunk of risk if the market moves against you, even if the positive swap provides additional edge in the trade.
Not sure.
Hello Ropunzel,
I just made a quick decision on EurTry and entered on a Friday afternoon, so my stop and target are yet to be set…I will set those on Monday.
Spreads are high at the weekend…as I said, on UsdZar for an Fxcm weekend spread you will see it as high as 600 sometimes. That is life with exotics!
In terms of balance I am demoing a 50k account… Swap varies for EurTry: Fxcm give 3.9 for a 10k position but other brokers offer different swaps.
Here are all of Fxcm’s:
https://www.forex.com/en-us/why-us/why-choose-us/value-and-reliability/rollover-rates.html#
I hope that you do find a way to trade the swap…
I am still new at this.
Happy Trading
Actually I think it is clear. I am just procrastinating. A forward test will pretty much sum everything up quickly, but I haven’t written the EA yet.
In fact I will do it right now.
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