Venepips Price action trading journal

I’m a newbie who has been experiencing frustrated ups and down in my live micro account since I opened it last November 2012. After my frustrated search for the “Holy grail” and trying countless of system I just realized that such a thing, “if it really exist”, wont be found in any trading system but in my risk managing reward ratio ®.

The second thing I realized was that shouldn’t change system as soon as it starts to fail because I hadn’t accept the fact that none system is perfect. Lastly, I also realized that indicators based on price are at the very end, lagged indicators no matter whether they are classified as a leading or not they are pretty much all the same.

So, here I am, discovering new lands and exited about a promising new start, this time to stay, about time :slight_smile:

Having said all this, I know that it’s just the beginning of my journey, still need to tune bunch of things but this is the starting point, my very 1st trading journal, and take it from here to learn from my mistakes.

So here it is my not so naked Price Action (PA) system

[B]“I will find other things to do besides watching my trades after they are live”[/B]

From the period 29/7/13 to 10/08/13, I will be following only 3 signals and these 3 only:

Inside bar (IB)
Outside bar (OB)
Pin bars (hammers, dragonfly, gravestone)

So my trading plan:

[U]Time Frame[/U]: I will be trading 4H only which means I’m not shuffling TF to justify myself an entry when no signal appear.

[U]Pairs[/U]: Mayors: AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY
Cross: AUDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, NZDJPY & EURAUD

[U]Managing money system: [/U] R=3, meaning I will use position sizing to adjust the lots and not the pips in order to set my S/L

     The S/L will be 3 pips above/below the H/L of the mother/trigger bar, however the size of the tail.

[U]Trailing stop:[/U] quite tricky at this point I will use it only once I reach R=2.5 so that I will shift S/L to R=2

[U]Miscellaneous[/U]: few things that at this point needs to be tune:

-Signals at confluence zone such as S/R, whole round number such as EURJPY=1.3300:

      - Pin bars should be straight forward and treated as reversal/retracement
      - Inside/outside bar: this is the tricky one, how can I differentiate between continuation and reversal?   
        My approach, based on observation of the AUDUSD back testing period 1/4/13 to 1/6/13, is that:
           a)Bars formed over the S/R or small bar without touching it = continuation
           b)Bars formed around S/R but without actually touching it at all= reversal/retracement

[U]Doubts I need to work out: [/U]

  • In the cases of the inside/outside bars, is the shape of the mother bar important? it can be two hammers for instance? two doji?
    -The importance of volume: I’m using a indicator from Sonic system that paint my candlestick in such a way that can depict volume on it. So, again, base on my observations on the AUDUSD between 1/4/13 to 1/6/13, I found that when volume intervene in my signals I could successfully expect a better reward, meaning if my R=3 I can easily expect R=4. This has, in my opinion, a theoretical support, or at least it should. Nevertheless, i need to workout the IB/OB behavior at confluent level such as round number.

[B]“I will not interfere with my trades without just cause”[/B]

[U]Exit rule[/U]: I will exit any open position if and only if:

-S/R proved to be valid, by proved I mean an opposite signal
-Gaps, not quite sure at this point, yet I will use it as exit until I found otherwise

Looks like you’re prepared. I’ll follow this thread. I’m also interested in your findings about the IB/OB.

In the mean time… this is the 1st trade based on inside bar in a confluence zone, given my observations on the AUDUSD I entered short.

Chart EURJPY, H4, 2013.07.29 08:10 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Thank you mate, feel free to post any comment

cheers

[B]Successful[/B]

Chart GBPJPY, H4, 2013.07.30 08:18 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart AUDJPY, H4, 2013.07.30 08:21 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Capped[/B]
Chart EURJPY, H4, 2013.07.29 08:10 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart EURJPY, H4, 2013.07.30 08:07 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

At the very same candle I also got this signal. I just took the EURJPY because i spot it 1st

Chart GBPJPY, H4, 2013.07.30 08:18 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

In addition, i also realized another thing, yesterday I traded EURJPY because I saw an IB @ confluent level (1.33000) and jumped in following AUDUSD observations only. I could be right but the curios thing is that if I would took the AUDJPY which was same signal same time, I would ended up with at least 120pips richer :frowning:

Chart AUDJPY, H4, 2013.07.30 08:21 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

So the question is, the continue treatment for IB on confluent levels work well for all pairs or it is just an Aussie thing? need to back test other pairs starting with EURJPY

London has open and the correspondent 4Hbars has now closed. My EURJPY position remain open in profits however:

-I notice that the ground number 130 is not actually the S level to be broken but 129.6. This is because, yesterday price were stop right there and today’s last bar was once again stopped right there forming a pin bar which might indicate reversal.
-So Potential continuation pattern “Hook or J” was stopped and instead, a “W” pattern might be on its way.
-There is a triangle forming with this W pattern within. Accordingly, next 2 candles might solve this puzzle (havent check news, PA followers should accept the fact that everything is reflected on price. Just checked the news and saw that within 4hrs 22:15 my time, there is mayor USD news to be released (Non farm). Likewise, within 1hr Eur unemployment rate will be released which suppose to have a more direct impact on my position.
-Looking at the past, this S level was broken by 2 colored OB. As a R, it was bounced off again with colored OB and it was broken from the last leg of the uptrend (started by a hammer) by a colored bar (color means mayor volume)
-So, this means that I need a mayor volume to break this S? Is this pair driven by news?

Chart EURJPY, H4, 2013.07.30 08:07 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Anyway, in order to protect my money (unlike yesterday with the IB signal) I decided to move the S/L to guarantee 10pips profits (some kind of greedy BE). I’m doing this because of the pin bar at S level, not because of either the upcoming news nor driven by emotions.

On the other hand, GBPJPY signal (same one from yesterday at the same time) is moving as expected.

So what this means, should I split my lots and take both signal next time. Some suggests that this is taking double risk, but I found myself taking EURJPY signal while the other 2 simultaneous ones, AUDJPY 1st & GBPJPY later performed as well as expected.

Chart AUDJPY, H4, 2013.07.31 08:26 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart GBPJPY, H4, 2013.07.31 08:23 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]todays learning[/B]

From now on, I will draw my S/R and trendlines using as reference my signals (pin bars, IO/OB). Pin bars only might be better for trend lines, we will see

News was released but previously, Bar pulled back from my desired trend forming a hammer. I’m standing on my ground, but feeling that shoudnt’t. Pretty much because:

  • I’m looking at a hammer
    -Price closed above my S=1.2960
  • Should I considered as a clue the fact that this pair was the only one that didnt move as expected? (see threat 7 & 8)
  • I was to greedy and should take 100 pips (R=2) profit

So in the end this should be all clues to close and open a long position?

So decided to close the AUSUSD (I entered because of the IB) and go short for the EURJPY because of I spot the pin bar. So wrong, never close a transaction to chase another one, Need to be more organised and disciplined.

Chart AUDUSD, H4, 2013.08.01 05:58 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart EURJPY, H4, 2013.08.01 08:05 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Having said that, it is funny how i didn’t hesitate to do so but I did when I spot the hammer (see previous post). So, “standing on my ground” :), what were the clues given by the market that I failed to recognize/admit:
[ol]
[li]I was wrong
[/li][li]The bullish movement that occurred about 15min before the bar closed (hammer) which was previous a significant news release
[/li][li]the double bottom formed before release
[/li][li]in conclusion, I failed to determine trend bias and stick to my own one and not admit that i was wrong
[/li][/ol]

Based on forward testing during weeks 1 & 2, I found that I need to pay a closer attention to the wave formations.

-In doing so, during a established trend I will [B]Sell @ LH[/B] and [B]Buy @ HL[/B].
-If a leg failed to reach the expected LL/HL or LH/HH, I might only consider it if there is a strong signal on a relevant S/R level such as double Bottom/Top.
-Whatever the trend is, I will place pending entries on the next quarter number unless price open there (less than 3 pips away) in which case I will go for market price.
-[B]I need to learn to identify the previous leg critical candle. [/B] This is because reversal is likely to get around and thus a continuation entry is also likely to show up around.

Having said this, the questions,at this stage, I will always need to ask myself are:

[B]When Buying[/B]
-Is this a valid signal a HL?
-Was the previous leg a HH?

[B]When Selling[/B]
-Is this a valid signal a LH?
-Was the previous leg a LL?

[B]Special consideration for W/M Patterns:[/B]
-If the pivot point failed to make a HH (W) or a LL M, the breakout will be the closing candle above/below the pivot

[B]Examples[/B]

Chart AUDUSD, H4, 2013.08.11 01:33 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart EURUSD, H4, 2013.08.11 13:13 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart NZDUSD, H4, 2013.08.05 07:43 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart NZDUSD, H4, 2013.08.07 08:01 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart EURJPY, H4, 2013.08.12 01:25 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Capped[/B]

Chart EURUSD, H4, 2013.08.05 20:31 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Bad signals[/B]

Chart EURAUD, H4, 2013.08.07 00:16 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart EURJPY, H4, 2013.08.06 14:15 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart USDJPY, H4, 2013.08.06 14:09 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Signal using GMT was to early and thus a fake one.
Chart EURAUD, H4, 2013.08.12 01:23 UTC, GFT MT4 Powered by BT, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Signal using New York Time

Chart AUDUSD, H4, 2013.08.12 05:41 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart EURAUD, H4, 2013.08.12 05:50 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart EURCAD, H4, 2013.08.14 04:20 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart NZDJPY, H4, 2013.08.13 13:20 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart EURJPY, H4, 2013.08.13 13:23 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart GBPJPY, H4, 2013.08.14 04:22 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Bad ones[/B]

Chart GBPUSD, H4, 2013.08.15 05:13 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Maybe I could avoid mistakes by using/taking daily signals so here we go, my 1sts[/B]

Chart NZDJPY, D1, 2013.08.15 21:05 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart GBPUSD, D1, 2013.08.15 21:08 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart USDCHF, D1, 2013.08.16 06:04 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]My best one so far[/B]

I took almost the whole bar making more than $100 with a 0.05 lot
Chart XAUUSD, H4, 2013.08.16 06:06 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]However I closed this one, coz didn’t ike the fact that crossed the EMA, besides USDCHF was already taken as well[/B]

Chart EURCHF, D1, 2013.08.15 21:10 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Why don’t you just list then on Zulu and we can follow you :slight_smile:

Hey mate can you provide me a link. Not sure if Zulu is a threat here or a website somewhere else

Cheers

[QUOTE=“Venepips;517924”]

Hey mate can you provide me a link. Not sure if Zulu is a threat here or a website somewhere else

Cheers[/QUOTE]

It a singal provider . You make the trade on ur mt4 account and Zulu follow . Which send it to us

Oh and you will get commission :slight_smile:

Zulutrader.com

I now gonna trade pin pars/indecision bars on S/R in the 8H chart only. I spotted a couple today, however there were few more I missed because I didn’t have time to screen all the pairs (see below).

I need to test the S/R i drew. In order to be a valid one, S/R need at least 5 body bounce. I will try to do so next weekend.

In the mean time;

Chart CADJPY, H8, 2013.08.20 21:14 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart GBPUSD, H8, 2013.08.20 21:55 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart NZDUSD, H8, 2013.08.22 21:21 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Missing ones[/B]
Chart EURGBP, H8, 2013.08.21 12:44 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart EURUSD, H8, 2013.08.21 12:44 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart USDSGD, H8, 2013.08.21 12:46 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart USDCHF, H8, 2013.08.21 12:47 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart NZDUSD, H8, 2013.08.21 12:47 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart NZDJPY, H8, 2013.08.21 12:48 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Taken[/B]
Chart USDCHF, H8, 2013.08.27 18:43 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart AUDCAD, H8, 2013.08.27 18:16 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart AUDCHF, H8, 2013.08.27 18:18 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart AUDNZD, H8, 2013.08.27 18:20 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart AUDUSD, H8, 2013.08.27 18:21 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart CADCHF, H8, 2013.08.27 18:24 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart EURAUD, H8, 2013.08.27 18:34 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Daily (the ones)[/B]

Chart NZDUSD, D1, 2013.08.28 21:15 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart XAGUSD, D1, 2013.08.28 21:15 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart XAUUSD, D1, 2013.08.28 21:15 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart AUDJPY, D1, 2013.08.28 21:22 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart AUDCHF, D1, 2013.08.28 21:24 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

Chart USDSGD, D1, 2013.09.01 21:12 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart EURCAD, D1, 2013.09.01 21:22 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart EURUSD, D1, 2013.09.01 21:23 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart USDCHF, D1, 2013.09.01 21:23 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Demo - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

[B]Aussie’s[/B]

[B]AUDJPY[/B]

The momentum for this pair is uptrend (see daily chart analysis below), after breaking 92.00 it pulled back to tested it again, resulting in being bounced off.

Chart AUDJPY, D1, 2013.09.13 01:19 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots

The entry was taken from the 1H/4H chart (see below). The order was placed from the pin bar formed in the 4H. Looking at the 1H there is a OB formed 3H before which should be used as an early entry for future signals.

Chart AUDJPY, H1, 2013.09.13 01:30 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots
Chart AUDJPY, H4, 2013.09.13 01:30 UTC, AxiCorp Financial Services Pty Ltd, MetaTrader 4, Real - MetaTrader Trading Platform Screenshots