Very Simple--You Bet !Very Different--You Bet! Very Profiitable --You Bet

captgrumpy · May 10, 2017, 5:28pm

VERY SIMPLE–YOU BET!! VERY DIFFERENT–YOU BET!! VERY PROFITABLE --YOU BET!!!
Hello Traders–captgrumpy here from Canada
I have here a plan I’ve been working on for about 3 years for spotting potential trading points (PTP’s)–It is very
simple,with only 3 elements on the chart,it is quite different than other plans I have seen and YES it should
produce good profits.As you all know you have to have a good reliable plan,or system,to select lots of winning trades,and if you don’t have such a system you’ll never make it as a Fx trader.All you newbies and others who
are struggling with your trading–IF you are ready to"STEP OUT OF YOUR BOX", so to speak,and try a different
method for spotting PTP’s.By so doing you have nothing to lose (except your time),but maybe something to gain.
As mentioned this plan is a bit different so here are the features of the plan:
1…First off everything here is based on the OANDA charts (active and practice) and platform
3…Only 1 currency pair is traded as it moves across the chart
4…If more than 1 pair is traded at the same time–each has it’s own record sheet
5…Entry point is at a PTP at the beginning of a HAB run (details later!)
6…Exit point is at a PTP at the end of a HAB run (details later !)
7…When a trade is closed (exit) ,because the chart HAS ALREADY REVERSED direction,a new trade is opened
immediately in the new chart direction
8…The heart of the plan is how the chart is set up—as follows:

1…\Select 4 or 5 (or more)currency pairs from the list–add to your quote list(any combination of the top 7 or
8 major pairs can be used–include the GBP-JPY and EUR-USD in your lis)()all pairs in your quote list will
be set up the same way)
2…Bring up the GBP-JPY 12 hour chart on your screen(No shots of charts used because too often the quality
is not good.
3…Choose the Heikin-Ashi as the chart line–give the up and down blocks contrasting colors
4…Add the WMA 5 (W5) and The WMA 14 (W14) --give them contrasting colors–and set the 'style’at
THICK
5…Add the RSI 4 (RSI4)–color it WHITE and set the 'style’at THICK (mandatory)
6…Zoom in on the chart to maximum resolution–then back off 3 clicks–more if graph too large for the screen
(the small + and - icons lower rt page control resolution)
7.Enlarge chart to full screen
The chart is now ready for action

Spotting The Trade Points (TP’s)
As Lookin over the chart you see the Heihin-Ashi blocks (HAB’s)dominate the screen with the W5 and W14 running along with them.Looking over the chart please note that when the HAB change color it indicates the
chart has also reversed.At about the same time note that the W5 makes a direction change (DC).This I call TP1 (Trade Point 1)Trades can be made here at which EVER ONE OCCURS FIRST --At the beginning of a run a buy trade is opened–if at the end of a run the open trade is closed–now as a main feature of this plan when a
trade is closed–the chart has reversed direction, so a new buy trade is opened in the new chart direction.
When a trade is opened follow the W5 until it hits the W14–now one of two things to do: (1)if the W14 is
going the same way as the W5-- start following the W14 (and rest of graph) until a new TP1 occurs and trades done as required (2) if the w14 is going the opposite way to the W5–close the open trade and immediately open a new trade in the direction of the W14–follow the W14 to next TPI to make trades

Normal Trading Routine (no take profit or stop loss used here)

For the INITIAL trade find a TP at the end/beginning of a HAB run(assume it is a TP at the bottom of a run!)Open

a BUY trade–follow the chart lines up until the next TP1–close the BUY trade–immediately open a new SELL

trade --now follow the W5 until it hits the W14–if the W14 is going the same way as the W5–follow the W14

to the next TP1 —close the open trade —OR if the W14 is going the opposite way–the open trade is

closed-(-at the crossing of the W5 and W14),–close the open trade follow the W14 to the next TP1 close the

open trade-- keep repeating the procedure

Look over all the charts making trades as shown–keep accurate records-do practice trades (lots of them!)

until you are very good at spotting those elusive Trade Points.If there is any interest in further follow up I have also come up with a complete financial plan in the form of a Work Sheet(or spread sheet) which contains all
the information on the trade itself and, pre planning before the first trade,basic investing and progressive
re-investing as trading progresses.I would like to share this info If there is any interest at all—hopefully some of you will have some comments both pro and con---------toward better trading—captgrumpy

adamsc57 · June 5, 2017, 9:06am

Hi captgrumpy

This system sounds quite simple. Yes I would like a copy of your financial plan to be able to follow this system more thoroughly.

Looking forward to testing it.

Best regards,

Chris.

DavidRobertson · June 8, 2017, 5:44pm

[quote=“captgrumpy, post:1, topic:85077”]

Hi Captain!

Looks good - ~BUT

You never said what you use the RSI for and what do you mean by “color it WHITE”?

Thanks!

captgrumpy · October 4, 2017, 3:46am

Hello Chris–(adamsc57)

Im so sorry I did not see your request–have not been on this site for several months–Here is my Progressive Investment and Re-investment Plan.Not only is the plan progressive,but because I feel very confident with my plan to spot potential trade points )PTP’s) the plan is also quite aggressive.Thus
my trades are a higher percentage per available capital.
this can be adjusted up or down to suit your trading style.
Hopefully Part 1 of the total plan has helped you to spot and
trade lots of winning trades because no financial plan will
work if you can’t spot a high percentage of winning trades.This part 2 is a financial plan that covers most everything from pre-planning before the first trade,to initial investing and then to the what,when and where of re-investing.The plan is in the form of a special Work Sheet containing the financial information and a record of every trade on the same page for easy viewing at one glance.The Work Sheet has 23 columns,
which at first my seem a bit overwhelming,but with use soon
become very easy to work with.The best thing,if you can get enought good paying winning trades—it works!!Once set up after the first trade it guides and pretty well controls the whole financial process from that point on.It sure takes a whole lot of worry and stress of the financial matters As long as you can come up with lots of winning trades THE PLAN
will take care of the rest.The plan does not tell you how much money to withdraw ,or when–you’ll have to do this on your own!!
You will recall that only one currency pair is traded as it goes across the screen and that if more than one pair is traded at the same time,each should have it’s own Work Sheet and
account balance.This is ideal for easier follow up on how well a particular pair is doing,but a single account could be used for more than one pair if that is more convenient.
Following is the list of all 23 columns with a brief description
and function of each:

THE WORK SHEET No1
Col.1–Trade #
Col.2–Date
Col.3–Time
Col.4–B/S–buy/sell
Col.5–Quoted Price
Col.6–Basic Trade–a.Margin For BTU–b.BTY(# of units per
trade)
Col.7–Progressive BTU’s (Trade Units From Col.18)
col.8–Total # of BTU’s For Investmemnt
Col.9–Total Unit Value (ie 3 BTU = 30000 Inits
Col.10–Pip Value for BTU
Col.11-- Prof / loss-- Pips–$ amt.
Col.12–Total Margin This Trade
Col.13–Account Balance
Col.14–___% Of Acc.Bal. (I use 25%)
Col.15–Diff.From Col.20
Col.16–Total For Re-Investment
Col.17–Divided By 5XBTU Margin
Col.18-- =NO.of BTU’s X 5 Trades
Col.19-- Actual Margin Used
Col.20–Diff.To Col.15 (Col.16 minus Col.19)
Col.21–Stop Loss Setting
Col.22–Take Profit Setting

Col.23–Remarks

NOTE:The 25% of account balance for re-investment seems like a lot,but when you divide this by 5 times the margin needed for the BTU spread over the next 5 trades–that is only about 5 %
per trade–so that not too bad!

I hope you can make up some Work Sheet pages topped up with these 23 headings.I don’t know how to do it on this thread.Once you do this go back over several charts --spot
the PTP’s an practiuce doing charts–paper trading only
until you are satisfied with the results–then perhaps more practice on a practice account.Make sure the plan works for you - before investing any of your money…

I hope this is enough to allow you you to check it out.
If I can be of any more help please contact me.
Just for what its worth one doesn’t nee a lot of money to get started–with concistant good paying winnings a small wad can soon become a wad-- I think an amount of $5000 is a pretty good starting base–for this amount you would start with 10000 units and increased in multiples of 10000 units- If you can afford more all the better–profits will build faster(losses also faster if you don’t do things right.

I hope all this is of some help–if I can be of further help contact me through babypics— good trading—captgrumpy

Ingot54 · January 21, 2019, 9:57am

I took the liberty to paraphrase this strategy so that I could follow it along more easily and clearly.
It is not my intention to offend the OP CaptGrumpy, and I hope he does not take it that way. Indeed I am truly very grateful that he has taken the trouble to freely give his time to place this beautiful strategy in our hands.

My only intention is to bring it to the thread in as clear a form as possible, without losing any of the original substance.

If CaptGrumpy finds I have strayed from his strategy, I would be very pleased if he could bring it back to a correct form. In the meantime, I am going to practice this as often as I can, until I have a degree of certainty that I do not currently have, to trade this strategy.

So - on with the paraphrasing. And please read my final observations at the end. Thank you.

Here are the features of the plan:

First off everything here is based on the OANDA platform and 12H charts.
Only 1 currency pair is traded as price moves across the chart.
Entry point is at a Potential Trading Point (PTP) at the beginning of a HA Bar run.
Exit point is at a PTP at the end of a HA Bar run.
At EXIT, the chart has already reversed direction.
Immediately ENTER in the new chart direction
ie and EXIT becomes an ENTRY in the opposite direction.
The Key is in the way the chart is set up.

You can have 6 or 8 of the major currency pairs in your quote list.
Use this template on all pairs individually, to set up an identical format:

Bring up a 12 hour chart. The GJ is a good starting chart.
Choose the Heikin Ashi as the chart line,
Give the up and down bars contrasting colours
Add the WMA 5 (W5) and the WMA 14 (W14).
Give them contrasting colours. Set the ‘style’ at THICK
Add the RSI 4 (RSI 4). Set the ‘style’ at THICK.
Save the setup as a Template for other charts.
Zoom in on the chart and enlarge chart to full screen

Spotting The Potential Trade Points (PTP’s)

On the chart you see the Heiken Ashi bars dominating the screen with the W5 and W14 MA’s. When the HA Bars change colour it indicates a reversal.
Around the same time note W5 changes direction.
This I call a PTP.

Trades can be made here at whichever occurs first:

At the beginning of a rally a buy trade is opened.
Close the trade at the end of the rally.

When a trade is closed, direction has reversed so a sell trade is opened.

When a trade is opened follow the W5 until it hits the W14.
Now one of two things to do:

If the W14 is going the same way as the W5, follow the W14 until a new PTP occurs and trade as above.
If the W14 is going the opposite way to the W5, close the trade and immediately open a new trade in the direction of the W14. Follow the W14 to next PTP to make trades

Normal Trading Routine (No Take Profit or Stop Loss used at all)

For the INITIAL trade, find a PTP at the end or beginning of a HA Bar run.
Assume it is a PTP at the bottom of a correction, so open the first BUY trade.

Follow the chart lines up until the next PTP.
Close that BUY trade and immediately open a SELL trade.

Now follow the W5 until it hits the W14.
If the W14 is going the same way as the W5 continue to follow the W14 to the next PTP.
At the next PTP close the open trade.

Or if the W14 is going the opposite way to the W5 the open trade is closed at the crossing of the W5 and W14.

Close the open trade follow the W14 to the next TP1 close the open trade-- keep repeating the procedure

Look over all the charts making trades as shown.
Keep accurate records. Do practice trades - lots of them - until you are very good at spotting those elusive PTP’s.

Unless you have constructed the charts along the suggested lines, you will already be lost and saying “This is all too hard.” I know because it happened to me, until I had a correctly constructed chart in front of me to follow along.

There are important things to understand here:
A Trade is not closed unless a PTP occurs.

Go back up and read: “When the HA Bars change colour it indicates a reversal. Around the same time note W5 changes direction. This I call a PTP.”

Now, a PTP can occur at a change of colour of the HA Bar, and at this time the W5 will bend towards the W14. If they are both travelling in the same direction – up or down, then do nothing until they cross.
That crossing will ALWAYS involve a change in colour of the HA Bars.
But, that change of colour may PRECEDE a crossing of the W5 and W14.

What! Well don’t be alarmed or confused.
This is where practice comes in – practice, practice, practice!
Eventually you will “get it.”

I am not surprised this thread didn’t develop. And it is not the fault of the OP.
It’s the traders who read this and passed. How many actually bothered to construct the charts as instructed?

This is one of the best higher TF strategies that I have ever seen. The HA Bars smooth out volatility and the use of the 12H charts help reduce the whip-lash that so often chases traders out of their trades before they even get established.

One observation before I go:

Traders who are used to using HA Bars will know that an uptrend is strong when the bottoms of the green (rising) bars are flat, and only show weakening momentum when those lower shadows (tails) begin to appear.

The opposite is true in a downtrend:
The tops of the RED (falling) bars are flat in a strong downtrend, and only begin to display weakening momentum when upper shadows (tails) begin to appear.

In applying this knowledge to your trading, make observations of as many of your charts as you can with the HA Bars on display. THEN you will develop the confidence to trade this much more quickly. And as mentioned, practice cements this strategy in your trading mind.

It is a beauty, and I thank CaptGrumpy for taking the time to bring it to us.
Feel free to point out or make corrections to any errors, and do please give this a good trial yourself.

Ingot54 · January 21, 2019, 10:04am

There is one item I omitted to mention - the RSI 4.
CaptGrumpy, could you please tell us where you think this indicator is best used for this strategy?

I am sure it is tied in with momentum, or trend strength, to give us stronger confidence to remain in trades, or earlier signals to prepare to close out of a trade.

You must have had a good reason for including it, but I can’t work it in without your help.

Hope you can clear this up for me please.

anon46773462 · January 23, 2019, 11:15am

Nice to see you back here @Ingot54! It is always a pleasure to see earlier posters returning here. We have not shared any topics before but I did read your “Rainbow” system thread some time back. My own charting bears some resemblance to that and the Guppy type MMA’s.

Twelve years on from your joining, how are you doing?

Ingot54 · January 25, 2019, 8:38am

Hey mate - thanks for the welcome.
Haven’t been on any forums really - just an occasional browse - no posting.
Getting a bit old in the tooth for these kinds of dreams now

Making a bit of a hobby of searching this site for higher TF systems.
This one looks ok. I am having a bit of a problem with HA bars/candles: they always look good in hindsight.
I think it’s a matter of allowing the candles time to close, and not jump in too early.
Even allowing time for an extra candle to form is fine. You may miss a nice move occasionally, but it’s better than getting stopped out when a false break snatches your money.

Would have been nice to see the OP hang around a bit - even if just long enough to process a few trades.
But at least he planted the seeds.

How are you going?
Taking any trades? Looking at higher TF too?

anon46773462 · January 25, 2019, 3:49pm

Aren’t we all! Actually, if I remember rightly, the OP himself is in his nineties! I will have to check on that, he did write his history here somewhere…

This method is a somewhat interesting design but I also do not like HA candles much. They do help to keep one in a trend but they look better than they really are because the HA close is different to the actual candle close due to the HA calculation formula, where HA close= average of the open, close, high and low prices.

Yes, I do use a daily chart for my overview, but my trades are based on a 4H/1H combination within the overall context of the daily chart. This does not mean that I only trade in the direction of the daily, rather it gives a measure of the relative risk in either direction vis a vis the daily and the potential move expectancy.

Needless to say, mine is a discretionary approach rather than mechanical! I use charts to tell me when it is wise/safe to cross the road, but not to actually order me to blindly cross!

As I mentioned earlier, I do use MMA’s a lot together with the 200SMA levels on all TFs: weekly, daily, 4H, and 1H.

As a rule, I would say that this forum is very much biased against using indicators and most people favour PA, but I have always liked MA’s and use little else.

About 2 years ago I was looking for a change away from currencies and started concentrating on Crude Oil trading, and that is where the bulk of my trading is nowadays. But I do follow the thread by @dennis3450 which may also interest you, if you have not seen it yet, since it is a longer term position type approach:

https://forums.babypips.com/t/trading-the-trend-with-strong-weak-analysis/77959

and whenever something there fits my trading method then I am in there too,

Since you were involved with the Rainbow method you will perhaps understand what I do here:

These are a couple of examples of my daily charts for S&P, Crude Oil and GU (which has just broken up through its daily 200SMA )

Ingot54 · February 4, 2019, 1:06pm

Thanks for those.
I have a chart that shows that on 1st January every year, Gold begins an annual rise.
This happened 6 times out of the past 8 Januaries, and 5 out of the last 5 Januaries.
So I traded it this year and made $USD11 trading 0.5 contracts.
With the AUD at $USD.72 I netted approx $800AUD.

Pulled it out and waited.
Jumped in again at $1303 (29th January 0.75 contracts) and again at $1310 (30th January 0.50 contracts) and watched it rise to $1315.
During the retrace on 31st January I got shaken out and closed both positions at $1311 and went to sleep.

Next morning I found that gold had hit $1326!!!.
That’s it for me - if I’d only gone to bed instead of watching the market, my profit would be more than $5000.

So I repatriated all funds in my account back into savings with my bank, and have not been tempted to trade again. I don’t think I have the discipline to be a good trader.

Even the daily candles would have kept me in the trade, because support was only $3 away.

Imagine that - throwing away a $15 profit in Gold, for the sake of a $3 retrace!!!

I have stopped beating myself up, but I still sweat when I look at a chart of Gold.

anon46773462 · February 4, 2019, 1:27pm

I understand that.

However, it is strange thing about trading that one can be very effective in creating and reading a chart view and yet fail to trade it successfully. I am sure that is by no means unusual amongst traders, so certainly don’t beat yourself up about that - besides you did end up with a profit, that is in itself quite an achievement nowadays!

Judging by your username, have you always specialised in gold? Have you tried other instruments at all?

MIght it help you to stick to your technicals if you traded something a little less sizeable, which might take your attention off the dollars and keep your focus on the chart?

Somehow seems a waste of a good trader to retire because of some inefficiency in optimising profits!!!

Maybe you should take a look at black gold instead for a while!!

Ingot54 · February 12, 2019, 2:10am

Manxx - do you remember in 2008 when oil shot up $10 to $15 in a session?
I made $11,000 in about an hour one night.

But instead of taking the profit, I thought: “There is a lot more to come.”

Ended up giving back $8000.

I repeated this silliness several times in my trading career.

With my recent Gold trades, I was under-capitalised for the number of contracts I took.
So when Gold retraced those $3, I got wobbly knees and just closed out to preserve profits.

The remorse came next morning - I was speechless and wanted to break something because of my own gutlessness. But out of it all came the realisation that I brought it on myself because of having so much at risk based on a small retrace. Over-leveraging I think I’d call it.

Took a few days to talk to my wife about it, but she shrugged it off.
I hesitated to tell her that same day, because I’d have probably broken down in tears

By the way - I have corrected the first paragraph in my post above where I discussed my Gold trade. It now reads “$USD11” instead of $USD 1" I felt very pleased about that first trade. But I may have done better simply by buying and holding for the entire month. Gold went up $17 in January. Certainly would not have had the angst.