I posted a daily chart on this very point some time ago, covering a number of years. I think it was about Crude Oil, and it really was not possible to identify a consistent flat seasonal month recurring in every year.
But I think the reason why there are flat periods at various times is mainly a reflection of the diminished presence of speculative trading, particularly in the shorter timeframes. Summer holidays and Christmas are indeed periods when many traders are simultaneously absent from the market.
But economies continue regardless of the month concerned and major long term trends do not change from day to day. So I think one could conclude that the longer term position traders and the other market participants such as industrials and commercials continue their “business as usual”. But their business does not produce the typical intraday noise that many traders are looking at and therefore give an impression of a “dead market”.
This is also visible on various national one-day holidays when markets are partly closed globally, especially in the US. Markets are noticeably more subdued. but the world is still turning and the economies still evolving. If major events or news occur during these periods, whether they are during certain months or certain days, the markets will still move.
But when we talk about the speculative community, I don’t think we are really referring to the retail trade typical of the forum communities such as here on BP.
So I guess the issue of whether to trade in certain periods is more a matter of one’s own trading style than the market itself?
Just some “speculative” thoughts…