kevin warsh gives his keynote today (aug 28, 10am et), his first jackson hole appearance as fed chair. multiple sources are converging on the same expectation: dont expect forward guidance on rates. warsh’s been deliberately avoiding telegraphing policy since taking office may 22, preferring to let data speak instead of the usual fed chair playbook of dropping hints at these speeches
context thats relevant, the recent surprise contraction in nonfarm payrolls already shook up rate-hike timing bets, and july fomc minutes (released aug 19) gave a policy baseline the market’s now measuring todays speech against. so the setup is less “what new signal does he give” and more “does he confirm, soften, or harden the hawkish tone from july without actually saying anything about the next meeting”
this years theme, “financial innovation: implications for payments and policy,” could mean a chunk of the speech goes toward cbdc/stablecoin/real-time payments territory rather than pure rate talk, worth noting since that’s genuinely different ground for a jackson hole keynote to cover
per multiple trading desks, the actual playbook here is watching for surprise vs consensus, not the content itself. if he says roughly what’s expected, moves stay small. if he surprises either direction, 1-3% swings across usd/equities/commodities in the hours after are being flagged as realistic, with most of the move expected to hit in the first 2 hours post-speech
anyone actually trading through this live or sitting it out until the initial volatility settles
also sharing this over on tyrian trade if anyone wants to discuss it there too: https://tyriantrade.com