Now that the latest euro zone GDP figures are out (Germany -0.2%, France 0.0%, Italy -0.2%, overall 0.0%), do you think the euro is in for more weakness given that the Russian sanctions could backfire on the euro zone? I mean, EU restrictions on Russia’s banking sector could hurt foreign investment while Russia’s ban on European food imports could weigh on trade activity - both of which have already tumbled in the recent quarter.
Any EUR trade ideas for this long-term bias?
I would pay a lot of attention to the flat GDP and the low inflation numbers - the ECB may have to start a stimulus programme (lol, now I’m starting to sound like those people, I should just say what it is - printing money)
BBC News - ECB under pressure to boost growth, analysts say
The sanctions could have a positive effect on the EU, there was some talk of the need for a move away from dependence on Russian energy, especially by Germany, during the Georgian conflict. I suspect that particular argument is gathering momentum now.
BBC News - Rosneft requests $42bn loan from Russian government
I have little doubt that Russia is acutely aware of this chorus, it is also feeling the effect of the sanctions, so for how long?
I don’t know all the economic data, but I do follow politics and have been paying attention to the whole thing going on in Eastern Ukraine. The Russians haven’t backed down and there are some reports of them making more aggressive moves. Whether Russia will mount a full blown invasion remains to be seen.
Right now I just don’t see Putin backing down, which means the sanctions will stay, and it will put the hurt on the EU.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts, fellas! Looks like EUR is one of the weakest majors of the bunch. Got any short EUR setups open?
No, I don’t at the moment. When I started my demo account I noticed that there were some nice swings going on with the USD/JPY and have been scalping them with some success, although I’m still getting the hang of it.
Looking at the EUR/USD 5 minute chart it does look like I missed a nice downtrend overnight, and as I type it is doing a wild swing with one candlestick covering 132.840 all the way down to a little past 132.540. I’m gonna have to check the news.
ETA: Watching the 1 minute chart now, it’s going nuts. Also see that the truck convoy that has been in the news crossed the border into Ukraine without Kiev’s consent. Interesting.
I imagine Yellin’s speech had an effect as well. ETA2: Now I’m sure it was, the same thing happened with GBP/USD and USD/JPY.
Woah, you’re really a short-term trader, huh? I myself can’t handle the volatility on the minute charts, maybe it’s coz I’m old haha. Got any plans for the upcoming ECB decision?
I don’t know if I’m really a short term trader yet, it’s just the way it’s worked out so far. And I don’t always stick with the 1 minute charts, I do zoom out as well. I guess I like to look at the 1 minute charts because I’ve learned from my years of playing guitar that the most subtle thing can make a huge difference. The way I see it, the 1 minute chart lets me zoom in and see what’s churning underneath the surface.
As far as the ECB decision goes, I’ll just do what I have been doing. Try to be logged into my practice account, wait for the news, and enter a trade accordingly.
I’ve done good on this method, if I am ready for it, but sometimes things in life prevent it. Gotta sleep & stuff.
Then the other day I got my ass bit the when the British Prime Minister made an announcement that Britain’s Terror Threat Level was being raised. GBP/USD was on a nice little upswing and decided to let it ride for awhile, set my stops a little wider, and went off to do some things outside. But when I came back in, it had stopped out. I turned on the news and found out what happened. lol, oh well. But I’ve been having success with shorting GBP/USD today.
And I guess another reason I only stay in short term is because I’m still getting the hang how signals, trends, ect work. Because even though I’m only playing with fake money, I still do treat it like it was real. I hate losing.
I see. Yeah, good point on sticking with what works for you and the importance sleeping and stuff, haha. It’s great that you treat your demo account as a real one, that way you can have an easier transition psychologically speaking when you open a live account. I’ll be waiting for that ECB decision as well. Good luck to us!
I remain short. But wary. Although this isn’t the first strike against eur/usd backlash on the downtrend it is beginning to hit crucial levels. I’m short with a 100 pip sl and a 50 pip trailing sl at 1.3270 tp around 1.2800. I take these trades all the time and it works. You know I trade P&F and renko. Being in these trades I have noticed a temp loss in steam tho. Basically, were in a pick a side moment. So go long or short or go home. Pick a direction, manage your risk and go. I choose short
Ha! Looks like this went in your favor really well. Congrats!
Thank you. Just playing odds as always.
Good analogy. I can relate. If you don’t understand the pentatonic scale you can’t shred. Learn your basics and stick with it bud!