Weaker Economic Data Fails to Halt the Dollar?s Rise

Trading in the foreign exchange market continues to be very quiet. We had relatively weak US economic data released this morning, but that failed to have a meaningful impact on the US dollar. Third quarter GDP was unchanged at 4.9 percent even though the price indices were revised higher. The big surprise came in the Philly Fed index which dropped to -5.7, the weakest level in 4 years. Given the deterioration in both the Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing indices, we can see that the weak dollar has not come to US economy’s rescue. The manufacturing sector is not benefitting from increased demand and instead tougher lending practices and the prospect of slower growth next year has caused many manufacturers to believe that more difficult times are ahead. Leading indicators also fell 0.4 percent last month, keeping the risk of a recession in play. We continue to believe that the current trends in the market will continue into the end of the year because no one is willing to take on any new risk after an extremely tough trading year. Personal income, personal spending and the PCE deflator are due for release tomorrow along with the final University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers. None of these reports are expected to be particularly market moving.