Weather cant predict the futures prices while futures prices can predict the weather

Weather cant predict the futures prices while futures prices can predict the weather any thoughts?

A weather analogy helps clarify explains longer time-frame trading, in particular trend-following - most days in summer are much warmer than most days in winter: most days in spring are a little bit warmer than the day before: this is an edge.

But even knowing this, its still impossible to say whether the temperature in 15 minutes time will be 0.1 degrees higher or 0.1 degrees lower.

Funny phrase.
Well, I think it says that everything in the market is relative, you can never know something for sure, you can assume and find approximate benchmarks. But don’t hope that everything will be easy and unambiguous, ah…

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But sometimes it seems different. Sometimes I feel that everything is clear and there are no surprises. Of course, it is doubtful, because there is always the possibility that everything will change dramatically. But maybe it is an experience, as if it tells me.

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I think that’s because the weather prediction is based (usually) on a few known factors which can be gauged. Futures prices, on the other hand, is a totally different story.

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I think that in this case “weather” is an analogy to the market mood. We always see certain trends here, except for periods of high volatility. Although even in such a period you can make certain observations and forecasts.

yea but weather never change according to people behavior :top:

Eduardo Saverin (Co-Facebook Founder), while an undergraduate at Harvard, Saverin used his interest in meteorology to predict hurricane patterns and made $300,000 via investment in oil futures…

So if you know what you are doing… it can be done…

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Well, I agree with you on this. The weather analogy has proved to be really helpful in longer time-frame trading.