So I just sat in a webinar that seemed like it would be geared more towards an educated individual who’d been trading for a little while BUT turned out that I just had more questions at the end.
The topic of the webinar was only briefly discussed but I took notes anyway and thought I’d post them up just because I think there are some useful nuggets for any trader, seasoned or not.
Also, hopefully this creates some sort of discussion about the idea’s presented by anyone who knows more about the topic at hand.
Enjoy
Analyze Forex/Futures Connection:
Jan 31, 2010 - 20:00EST - Raghee Horner
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Intro:
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Dow Theory - Charles Dow
Eliminate Distractions - Keep things Simple
Understand market trends/phases - essentially market psychology
Identify (Fear - Greed - Anticipation/Boredom - Confusion)
Psychology identifies market trends which SHOULD define your strategy
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What Raghee Horner says about herself:
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Doesn't wake up at 2:00AM(EST) - focus and discipline
Work within what you know you can do
Organize YOUR trading day (Trade when?)
Studied Market Rhythm / Pip Ranges / Sessions
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**Pairs - [I][B]Connection to Futures[/B][/I]
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USDX - US Dollar Index (ICE Inter-Continental Exchange)
US Dollar is a part of so many currency pairs
DOW - Psychology of Equities
Barometer of RISK APPETITE
AUD/USD - NZD/USD - USD/CAD >> Comdolls (commodities) >> 'CRUDE'
With these three, is there HARMONY? Can you distinguish a phase
i.e Greed or Confusion or Fear etc.
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**[I][B]Correlations[/B][/I] - Causality (What's driving that psychology?)
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What influences the US dollar?
US Economic Releases
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**Pip Range Movement Graph (Market Rhythm)
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PowerStats
"Autochartist"
Movement per Hour
Pip Range Forecast
Sessions overlap
Some may bring more volatility than others
i.e 8:00AM EST - 12:00PM EST
WHO'S AWAKE?
- Paris/Frankfurt/London/New York
And we know the first three are the bulk
Using the stats gives you a general idea of what the market will do
Still depends where S/R are marked on the chart
Will price reach that level within the average range?
What volatility can we expect / What risk tolerance?
Make decisions based on the average ranges based on the stats
ex: Trendline may be 150 pips away, days range 100
may mean that TL is not in play
Check stats for different pairs:
GBP for example trades higher ranges/with more volatility
in the early mornings i.e 2am EST
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**Psychology (external / directional bias)
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Is there a clear uptrend or downtrend on the [daily] chart?
20 SMA
50 SMA
200 SMA
Many people watch these in different markets
34EMA (High)
34EMA (Low)
34EMA (Close)
Raghee's Preference
Daily chart determines the DOMINANT PSYCHOLOGY
i.e TOP DOWN ANALYSIS
Personally I’d like to know more about the terms in BOLD ITALICS i.e Connection to Futures and Correlation in Currencies or Intermarket Analysis. I don’t trade the SMA indicators listed in the DIRECTIONAL BIAS section but thought I’d include what she said just for beginner’s sake.
Sample picture of the autochartist stats I took a screenshot of:
That range by hour of day. What time zone is that based on? Is it GMT ? and what is the light green vs. the dark green ? Reason I ask is that it closely matches my average volume graph same peaks and valleys but offset in time maybe due to a different time zone. That wouldn’t surprise me to see average range related to average volume, which of course is related to session times. a peak around 3 & 4, followed by a larger peak around 8&9, a leveling off from 11 to 14, a minimum after that and then a small peak around 19 & 20… just an observation.
No offense, but I saw charles dow I was intrigued, then I read further and you cited Raghee Horner I don’t think she even trades but she just sells her system which ain’t all that good. I mean c’mon would you buy into to a car company when they don’t even make cars? However that’s just me I prefer to follow those who preach what they practice and have proven themselves via live calls anyone can look at historics and say my system said this and said that you would of had a prime entry down here and exit right at the top I picked.
If you want a good dose of psychology with someone not trying to sell you something check this out So you want to become a professional trader? @ Forex Factory, he talks A LOT about psychology and unlike some people he does practice what he preaches. How do I know? I know the guy in real life, he works at my firm and kicks my a$$ with his mentality alone.
I agree I mean I’ve sat in a couple of her webinar’s and they tend to stray further away from the topic presented and more on her system.
That being said I still think she brings up valid points and if anything, just brings to surface some wider topics people should research themselves or do some more reading on. For me, I’m trying to get in on Dow Theory and correlations with Crude, commodities and currencies but I never though much about them before.
Won’t go so far as to say she doesn’t trade and only talks, I still respect the fact she has a business she runs too.
