My first forecast…here goes!
After getting up to above 96 in last week’s session, then settling at 95.3 on Friday, my take is that the USD/JPY pair will find resistance at around 95 even - possibly around 94.8 - before finding buyers returning to the market.
Resistance of 96.2, close to last week’s high, is possible, but a breakthrough there opens up a new resistance barrier at the 97 level.
There is no doubt that the currency is going to hit 100 in the near future, and I am bullish long term. PM Abe’s recent push to devalue the yen and put it back to a range that is considered, in Japan, to be fair, is a major platform of the new economic order in Japan, dubbed “Abenomics” by the vernacular press.
Getting to 100, though, will be a bit of an up-and-down proposition, though, and there’s plenty of action to be had in the weeks before the currency hits parity.
Going long on the USD/JPY pair is a safe bet until the currency gets near 100 if you want to take a “buy and hold” strategy. For shorter term holds, buys would be best after the resistance is tested, probably during Monday’s Tokyo session.
In the unlikely event the pair crashes through the 95 level, new resistance levels can be found in the low 94 range.
- ExpatJohn
Bayside Interactive
Yokohama, Japan