4 hour graph of the USD/JPY.
The following is my prediction as to how the price will move after the weekend.
Any comments are greatly appreciated.
The horizontal red line is the major support.
The diagonal red lines is the channel that the price is currently in.
After (almost) hitting the support trendline of the channel which also happened at the major support (going back weeks) the price moved up in a very clear Elliot wave (dark blue lines).
After hitting the top channel resistance the price fell to just below the support line.
Now as to the prediction:
-The price seems to have hit the bottom at ~86.20 shown by the engulfing candlestick pattern (the bull candle engulfed the previous 2 bear candles). The harami pattern has been formed with the last 2 sticks, however I do not believe that it has much significance since the volumes do not support it.
-The RSI and MACD both showing that the bottom has been reached.
-In my opinion the price has not moved far enough below the 86.40 resistance to be considered a breakout.
If the bottom has been actually hit, then the stage A of the correction Elliot wave has been completed and now the price will move up.
I think that when the pivot points are recalculated, the pivot point will be at the 38 Fibonacci level and the R1 will be at the 50 Fibonacci level.
I predict that the price will fall down ~5 pips, and then spring up to the 38 Fib level where it’ll temporarily slow down/consolidate. Then it’ll spring up to the 50 Fib level, at which point the stage B of the Elliot wave will be completed. Then the price will fall below the 86.40 support.
Well, I think that’s all.
Any comments are welcome.