Weekly Analysis by ZitaPlus Research Team

Commercial Content Analysts
1

Trade Tensions Rise, and Japan GDP Surprises (17-21 March)

The dollar index remained steady as traders assessed the trade war’s impact.

Consumer confidence hit its lowest since 2022, but sentiment improved as lawmakers neared a government shutdown deal. The focus shifts to next week’s FOMC meeting, where rates are expected to stay put.

The euro rose to $1.09, supported by Germany’s debt overhaul, while Trump threatened a 200% tariff on EU wines over whiskey taxes. The pound fell to $1.29 after the UK economy shrank 0.1% in January. The BoE is expected to keep rates at 4.5% next week. The yen weakened despite hovering near a five-month high, with BOJ rate hike expectations rising as wages boost consumer spending.

Gold hit $3,000 per ounce, gaining 3% for the week, driven by Fed rate cut expectations, trade tensions, and China’s central bank purchases. Silver surged to $33.90, its highest since October, as safe-haven demand rose. Jobless claims fell, signaling a strong labor market despite tariff concerns.

U.S. 10-year and 2-year yields rose to 4.3% and 4%, extending a two-week gain. German 10-year yields stayed flat at 2.88% after last week’s budget-driven rally, while Japan’s 10-year bonds hit 1.58%, their highest since 2008.

Japan GDP (Q4)

Japan’s economy grew 0.6% QoQ in Q4 2024, slightly below the 0.7% estimate but above Q3’s 0.4%. Business investment rose 0.6%, while private consumption stagnated. Exports increased 1.0%, though slower than Q3’s 1.5%, while imports fell 2.1%, marking their first decline since Q1 2024. On an annualized basis, growth accelerated to 2.2% from 1.4% in Q3.

JOLTS Job Openings (Jan)

U.S. job openings rose 232,000 to 7.74M, surpassing the 7.63M forecast. Gains were led by retail (+143K), finance (+77K), and healthcare (+58K), while business services lost 122K. Hiring edged up to 5.39M, while separations increased to 5.25M.

US CPI (Feb)

Inflation eased to 2.8% YoY (Jan: 3%), below the 2.9% forecast. Energy prices dropped 0.2%, with gasoline down 3.1%. Shelter (4.2%) and transportation (6%) inflation slowed, while food inflation ticked up to 2.6%. Core inflation fell to 3.1%, its lowest since April 2021, with both headline and core CPI rising 0.2% MoM.

BoC Interest Rate Decision

The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps to 2.75%, bringing total cuts to 225bps since June 2024. While economic growth exceeded expectations, trade tensions with the U.S. dampened confidence. Inflation is projected to rise to 2.5% as tax credits expire, while core inflation is expected to ease with lower shelter costs.

Initial Jobless Claims

U.S. jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 220,000, a three-week low, beating the 225,000 forecast. Continuing claims dropped by 27,000 to 1.87M, defying expectations of a rise to 1.9M. DOGE-related claims fell by 54 to 1,580 but remain elevated.

PPI (Feb)

U.S. PPI remained flat in February. Final demand for goods increased 0.3%, while services declined 0.2%. Over the past year, PPI rose 3.2%.

UK GDP (Jan)

The UK economy contracted 0.1% MoM, missing forecasts of 0.1% growth, following December’s 0.4% expansion. Manufacturing fell 1.1%, led by basic metals (-3.3%) and pharmaceuticals (-3.1%), while mining (-3.3%) and construction (-0.2%) also weakened. Services rose 0.1%, slowing from 0.4% in December. GDP grew 0.2% over the last three months.

German CPI (Feb)

Germany’s inflation held steady at 2.3% YoY, with services inflation easing to 3.8% and energy costs falling to 1.6%. However, food inflation surged to 2.4% (Jan: 0.8%), offsetting declines in other categories. Core inflation dropped to 2.7%, its lowest since Sept 2024. Monthly CPI rebounded 0.4%, while EU-harmonized inflation rose 2.6% YoY, below the 2.8% estimate.

Currencies

The dollar index was flat as traders assessed the trade war’s impact on the U.S. economy. Consumer confidence hit its lowest since 2022, but sentiment improved as lawmakers moved closer to averting a government shutdown. Focus shifts to next week’s FOMC meeting, where rates are expected to hold steady, with markets pricing in two rate cuts this year.

The euro neared $1.09, its highest since November after Germany agreed on a debt overhaul and increased state spending. Incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz secured a deal on borrowing reforms ahead of a parliamentary vote. Trade tensions escalated, with Trump threatening a 200% tariff on EU wines in response to EU whiskey taxes. Investors await Fitch’s credit rating decision on France.

The pound fell to $1.29 after the UK GDP shrank 0.1% in January, missing expectations of 0.1% growth due to weakness in production. The BoE is expected to keep rates at 4.5%, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to announce public spending cuts on March 26. Concerns over U.S. tariffs supported sterling.

The yen weakened but remains near a five-month high, supported by BOJ rate hike expectations. Trump reaffirmed reciprocal tariffs starting April 2, pressuring global trade. Japanese firms agreed to wage hikes for a third year, which is expected to increase inflation and consumer spending, giving the BOJ more flexibility for future hikes.

The Canadian dollar stayed near 1.44 per USD, close to a one-month low, as Canada imposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on $21B of U.S. goods after Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. The BoC cut rates by 25bps to 2.75%, bringing total cuts to 225bps since June 2024, citing trade-related risks and weak domestic demand. Inflation is projected to rise to 2.5% in March, while core inflation is expected to ease due to slowing shelter costs. Markets anticipate 50bps more cuts this year.

Commodities

Gold hit a record $3,000 per ounce, gaining 3% for the week, as risk aversion and Fed rate cut expectations drove demand. Trump threatened 200% tariffs on EU wines after the EU imposed a 50% tax on U.S. whiskey. Easing inflation in PPI and CPI data gave the Fed room to lower rates, supporting gold. Strong ETF inflows and central bank buying, especially from China, also supported the rally.

Silver climbed to $33.90 per ounce, its highest since with tariff tensions and Fed rate cut bets. Trump’s tariff threats escalated trade disputes, while U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted that a recession might be necessary for Trump’s policies. PPI remained flat, CPI rose just 0.2%, and jobless claims fell again, signaling a strong labor market.

Equities

U.S. indices recovered late but still ended the week lower. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 2.5%, while the Dow dropped 3.5%.

Apple led losses, plunging 10%, followed by Google and Meta. Nvidia gained 8%, rebounding after recent struggles, making it one of the few stocks to close higher.

ZitaPlus Research Team

4

Fed Stays Course, ECB & BoE Cautious (24-28 March)

The US dollar index rose toward 104, ending the week higher as the Fed held rates steady but reaffirmed plans for two cuts in 2024. Powell downplayed Trump’s tariffs, citing no urgency for more cuts. Trade tensions and economic uncertainty supported the dollar.

The euro pulled back from a five-month high after Lagarde warned of slower growth and said a 25% US tariff could cut Eurozone growth by 0.3pp. Villeroy hinted at rate cut room, but markets now see only two ECB cuts this year.

The pound fell below $1.30 as the BoE held rates at 4.5% and took a cautious stance. Unemployment held at 4.4%, while wage growth slowed to 5.8%.

The yen weakened to 149 per dollar after Japan’s core inflation eased to 3%, still above forecasts. The BOJ kept rates at 0.5%, while global uncertainty and a stronger dollar pressured the yen.

Gold traded near $3,030, eyeing a third weekly gain, supported by Fed rate cut signals and Middle East tensions. Silver fell over 2% to $33, hit by China growth concerns, though prices stayed near five-month highs due to tight supply and Trump’s tariffs.

US Treasuries slipped, with 2-year yields near 3.94% and 10-year at 4.22%. Japan’s 10-year bond stayed flat after last week’s high, while Germany’s 10-year yield dropped to 2.75%.

US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)

Retail sales rose 0.2% in February, rebounding from a revised 1.2% drop in January, but falling short of the 0.6% forecast. 7 of 13 categories declined, including food services (-1.5%), gasoline (-1%), clothing (-0.6%), and auto dealers (-0.4%). Gains were led by nonstore retailers (+2.4%), health & personal care (+1.7%), and food & beverage (+0.4%). Core retail sales (used in GDP) jumped 1%, reversing a 1% decline and beating the 0.2% forecast.

BoJ Interest Rate Decision

The BoJ held rates at 0.5%, the highest since 2008, matching expectations. Following January’s third rate hike, the bank remains cautious due to global risks, higher U.S. tariffs, and a fragile domestic recovery. Private consumption grew on wage gains, while exports and output stagnated. Inflation remained between 3.0%-3.5%, driven by services, with core CPI expected to rise gradually.

EU CPI (YoY) (Feb)

Eurozone inflation fell to 2.3% in February, down from 2.5% in January.

Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.5%, pausing its cut cycle that began in January. It still projects 50bps in cuts for 2025, but GDP growth was revised down to 1.7% (from 2.1%), and to 1.8% for 2026 and 2027. PCE inflation forecasts rose to 2.7% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026. The jobless rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.4% in 2025. Starting in April, the Fed will slow its balance sheet runoff, cutting the Treasury redemption cap from $25B to $5B.

SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1)

In March 2025, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25bps to 0.25%, the lowest since September 2022, marking its fifth cut in the cycle. Inflation fell to 0.3% in February (from 0.7% in November), mainly due to lower electricity prices, though service costs remain elevated. Inflation is projected at 0.4% for 2025, and 0.8% for 2026–2027. The SNB expects GDP growth of 1–1.5% in 2025, supported by real wage gains and looser policy, though weak global demand poses a risk. Growth in 2026 is forecast at 1.5%, but geopolitical and trade uncertainties remain.

BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)

The BoE held rates at 4.5% in March, with an 8-1 vote, as it remains cautious amid elevated inflation and global uncertainty. Swati Dhingra voted for a 25bps cut. CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in January and is expected to peak at 3.75% in Q3 2025, despite falling energy prices. The BoE emphasized a gradual approach to easing, noting increased trade policy risks and market volatility.

Initial Jobless Claims

In mid-March, initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 223,000, just below the 224,000 forecast, while continuing claims increased by 33,000. The data reflects a still-strong labor market despite weak Q1 economic figures and tight policy. DOGE-related claims fell by 514 to 1,066, though many affected workers may delay filing due to severance packages.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)

The index dropped to 12.5 in March from 18.1 in February, but still beat the 8.5 forecast. 31% of firms reported increased activity (down from 41%), while 18% saw declines (vs 23%), and 47% reported no change (up from 35%). New orders fell 13 points to 8.7, and shipments dropped 24 points to 2, though both stayed positive. Employment rose to 19.7, the highest since October 2022, while prices paid jumped to 48.3, the highest since July 2022. Expectations for future activity and new orders declined, but firms still see employment rising, though more slowly.

Existing Home Sales (Feb)

Existing home sales rose 4.2% to an annualized 4.26M units, rebounding from January’s 4.7% drop, and beating the 3.95M forecast. Median price rose 3.8% YoY to $398,400. Inventory increased 5.1% to 1.24M homes, equal to 3.5 months of supply. NAR’s Lawrence Yun noted stable mortgage rates and improved inventory are helping to release pent-up demand.

Currencies

The US dollar index rose toward 104 on Friday, ending the week higher. The Fed held rates steady but reaffirmed plans for two cuts in 2025 while noting rising risks to growth, jobs, and inflation. Powell called Trump’s tariffs “transitory”, downplaying inflation concerns and signaling no urgency for more cuts. Trade tension ahead of the April 2 tariff deadline and global growth worries supported the dollar.

The euro fell from a five-month high of $1.09547, following Lagarde’s warning about weaker eurozone growth and the impact of a potential 25% US tariff, which could cut growth by 0.3 pp, and 0.5 pp with EU retaliation. Lagarde said inflation effects would fade, and the ECB would likely not hike. Villeroy signaled room for rate cuts, but markets now expect just two ECB cuts in 2025, while the Fed reaffirmed its two-cut plan.

The British pound dipped below $1.30, down from a four-month high, after the BoE held rates at 4.5% and took a cautious stance on easing. Trade policy uncertainty and new US tariffs raised inflation risks. UK growth remains weak, with unemployment steady at 4.4% and wage growth slowing to 5.8%, matching forecasts.

The Japanese yen weakened to 149 per dollar, reversing earlier gains. Core inflation eased to 3% in February (Jan: 3.2%) but beat the 2.9% forecast, reinforcing the case for further BOJ hikes. The BOJ kept rates at 0.5%, citing global uncertainty and tariff impacts. The stronger US dollar and trade worries added pressure on the yen.

Commodities

Gold hovered around $3,030 per ounce on Friday, near record highs and heading for a third straight weekly gain, driven by dovish Fed signals and safe-haven demand. The Fed confirmed plans for two rate cuts in 2025, while Powell downplayed Trump’s tariffs as “transitory.” Middle East tensions escalated with Israel, Hamas, and U.S. military actions, and Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline added to global trade concerns. Gold is up over 15% year-to-date.

Silver fell over 2% to $33, pressured by China’s weak industrial outlook as Beijing introduced new stimulus without specifics. Still, the metal held near five-month highs due to supply concerns, partly linked to tariff disruptions.

Equities

Indices have had a flat-to-positive week. While the Nasdaq closed the week flat, the Dow and S&P 500 saw limited gains. The standout performer in the rallies was Netflix, followed by Nvidia and Microsoft. On the red side, Meta and Tesla stood out with approximately 5% drops, while Amazon and Google also ended the week in the negative, joining them.

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Weekly Analysis By ZitaPlus Research Team (7-11 April 2025)

Trade Tensions Hit Currencies as U.S. Jobs Data Surprises
The dollar index hovered just above 102, near a six-month low, as China’s 34% tariff on U.S. goods and strong U.S. jobs data raised recession fears and Fed rate cut bets.
The euro held around $1.10, with markets pricing a 90% chance of a 25bps ECB cut in April.

The pound slipped below $1.29 on trade concerns, while the yen strengthened to 145/USD. The Aussie fell to $0.60 on global slowdown fears, with markets now expecting 100bps of RBA cuts in 2025.

Gold dropped 2.5% to $3,020/oz, as investors sold to cover losses elsewhere. Silver fell below $30, down 12% weekly, hit by China’s retaliatory tariffs. Brent crude fell 6.5% to under $66, after OPEC+ added 411,000 bpd for May.

As risk appetite faded, bond yields fell. U.S. 10-year yields dropped 6% to 3.97%, German yields to 2.57%, and Japan’s 10-year yields plunged 23% to 1.17% after testing a 16-year high.

German CPI (MoM) (Mar)
Germany’s annual inflation eased to 2.2% in March 2025, its lowest since November 2024, aligning with market expectations. The slowdown was mainly driven by a drop in services inflation to 3.4% (from 3.8%) and a deeper decline in energy prices at -2.8% (vs. -1.6%). However, food inflation rose slightly to 2.9% (from 2.4%). Core inflation also cooled to 2.5%, the lowest since June 2021. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.3%, down from 0.4% in February.

Chicago PMI (Mar)
The Chicago PMI rose to 47.6 in March from 45.5, beating expectations of 45.2, and marking the slowest contraction since November 2023. This was the 16th consecutive month of decline, but the pace moderated thanks to gains in production, and smaller improvements in employment, new orders, and backlogs. Supplier deliveries declined, showing less congestion in supply chains.

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Apr)
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its cash rate at 4.1% in April, following a 25bps cut in February, matching expectations. The Board stated that policy is well-positioned to respond to global risks and emphasized growing confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward the 2–3% target, supported by higher interest rates balancing demand and supply. However, it noted that the outlook remains uncertain, especially due to geopolitical tensions and U.S. tariff policy shifts. The interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances was maintained at 4.0%.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in March from 50.3, missing the forecast of 49.5, and signaling a return to contraction after a brief expansion in February. New orders dropped to 45.2, employment to 44.7, and order backlogs to 44.5, indicating declining demand. Production slipped to 48.3, while inventories rose to 53.4. Price pressures jumped to 69.4, the highest since June 2022, driven by tariffs.
“Demand and production retreated, and staff reductions continued as companies responded to demand uncertainty,” said Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Price growth accelerated due to tariffs, causing delays in new orders, slowdowns in supplier deliveries, and increased manufacturing inventories.”

JOLTS Job Openings (Feb)
Job openings in the U.S. dropped by 194,000 to 7.568 million in February, falling short of the expected 7.63 million. Declines were notable in retail (-126K), finance (-80K), healthcare (-46K), leisure and hospitality (-61K), and manufacturing (-31K). Regionally, openings decreased across all major areas, with the South down by 74,000 and the West by 51,000. Hires and total separations remained steady at 5.4 million and 5.3 million, while quits (3.2 million) and layoffs (1.8 million) showed little change.

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Mar)
Private sector employment rose by 155K in March, exceeding expectations of 105K and up from a revised 84K in February. The services sector drove the gains, adding 132K jobs, especially in professional/business services (+57K), financial activities (+38K), and leisure/hospitality (+17K). Manufacturing added 21K jobs in the goods-producing sector, while natural resources and mining lost 3K. Year-over-year pay growth slowed to 4.6% for job-stayers and 6.5% for changers. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson noted that despite policy uncertainty and consumer pessimism, the data suggests a positive trend for the economy and broad business recovery.

Initial Jobless Claims
Initial claims declined by 6,000 to 219,000 in the week ending March 29, staying below the 225,000 forecast. However, continuing claims rose sharply by 56,000 to 1.903 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating greater difficulty for unemployed individuals in reentering the workforce. Claims under federal programs, closely watched due to recent layoffs at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), dropped by 257 to 564. Still, many workers are not yet eligible for benefits due to severance agreements.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
The ISM Services PMI fell to 50.8 in March from 53.5, missing the 53 forecast and marking the weakest pace of growth since June last year. New orders (50.4), inventories (50.3), and employment (46.2) slowed, while production picked up (55.9), and price pressures eased slightly (60.9). ISM Services Chair Steve Miller pointed to rising cost pressures from tariff activity and added that while concerns remain over potential tariffs and declining government spending, sentiment for the near term is holding steady.

Nonfarm Payrolls (Mar)
The U.S. economy added 228K jobs in March, the strongest reading in three months and well above the 135K forecast. Healthcare (+54K), social assistance (+24K), transportation and warehousing (+23K), and retail trade (+24K) posted solid gains, with the latter helped by returning strikers. Federal employment dropped by 4K. January and February figures were revised down by a combined 48K.

Unemployment Rate (Mar)
The unemployment rate edged up to 4.2%, slightly above expectations and the highest since November. The number of unemployed rose by 31,000 to 7.08 million, while employment increased by 201,000. Labor force participation ticked up to 62.5%, and the U-6 rate, which includes underemployed and discouraged workers, eased to 7.9% from 8.0%.

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Mar)
Average hourly earnings increased by $0.09 or 0.3% to $36.00, meeting market expectations. Wages for production and nonsupervisory workers rose by $0.05 or 0.2% to $30.96. Over the past year, overall wages have grown by 3.8%, slightly below February’s 4.0% and the expected 3.9%.

Currencies
The dollar index hovered just above 102, near a six-month low, as investors weighed rising trade tensions against strong U.S. jobs data. China’s 34% tariff on all U.S. imports fueled concerns about inflation, slowing growth, and recession risk. Traders now price in a 50% chance of four 25bps Fed cuts this year, with the first expected in June. March payrolls rose by 228,000, beating the revised 117,000 in February and the 135,000 forecast.

The euro traded around $1.10, close to its highest since October 2024, benefiting from dollar weakness amid trade concerns. China’s new tariffs, effective April 10, impacted sentiment in Europe as well. French President Macron urged firms to pause U.S. investments, and the EU is preparing retaliatory measures. Markets now price a 90% chance of a 25bps ECB cut in April, with rates seen falling to 1.8% by year-end from 2.5%.

The British pound slipped below $1.29, pressured by global trade fears tied to Trump’s tariffs. Though the UK faces a smaller 10% tariff, potential product dumping from China and the Eurozone threatens UK exporters. The Office for Budget Responsibility warned the UK economy could shrink up to 1% due to trade policies. Domestically, inflation concerns continue to weigh, supporting a cautious Bank of England outlook.

The Japanese yen strengthened to 145 per USD, its highest since early October, as demand for safe-haven assets rose. China’s sweeping 34% tariffs and the 24% U.S. tariff on Japanese goods added to trade war uncertainty. Despite this, the BOJ is expected to maintain its tightening path, with Deputy Governor Uchida indicating further hikes are likely if the economy performs as projected.

The Australian dollar weakened to $0.60, reversing earlier gains on fears of a global slowdown from rising tariffs. Although Australia faces a smaller 10% tariff from the U.S., higher duties on key partners like China and Japan have hurt the trade outlook. Markets now expect the RBA to cut rates by 100bps in 2025, up from 75bps, with moves likely in May, July, and August.

Commodities
Gold fell 2.5% to $3,020 per ounce by week’s end, retreating further from record highs. Analysts attribute the drop to investors selling gold to cover losses elsewhere with margin calls. Silver also declined, falling below $30 and logging a 12% weekly loss, its lowest since January 14. The sell-off followed China’s announcement of a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods, retaliating against Trump’s 10% baseline tariff and additional duties on China (54%), the EU (20%), Japan (24%), and India (27%).

Despite rising trade tensions, precious metals have been relatively insulated from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. COMEX gold inventories rose on fears of supply disruptions. As markets sold off broadly, investors shifted to safe-haven assets like government bonds, with recession concerns and potential Fed rate cuts continuing to support gold and silver.

Brent crude dropped over 6.5% to below $66 per barrel after a 6.4% fall the day before, its lowest since August 2021. The decline was driven by OPEC+ accelerating its output plan, now aiming to add 411,000 barrels per day in May, up from 135,000. While energy products remain exempt from U.S. tariffs, broader trade tensions, including China’s 34% duty on U.S. goods, weighed on sentiment. Oil is headed for a 10% weekly loss, its largest in six months.

Equities
U.S. indices posted sharp weekly losses as Trump’s tariff announcements fueled market uncertainty and triggered a shift away from risk assets. The Nasdaq dropped 9%, the S&P 500 fell 8%, and the Dow Jones declined 7%. Tech giants were hit hard, Apple sank 13%, Nvidia 14%, and Amazon 10%. Global automotive stocks also suffered heavy losses.

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Weekly Analysis By ZitaPlus Research Team (14-18 April 2025)

DXY Falls with US-China Trade Conflict

The dollar index fell to 99, a near three-year low, as China raised tariffs to 125% in response to the U.S.’s 145% hike, intensifying trade tensions.
The euro jumped above $1.14, the pound passed $1.30, and the yen gained on safe-haven demand.

Gold hit a record $3,250/oz, silver rose above $31.20, both boosted by risk-off sentiment and Fed rate cut hopes. Brent crude rose 2.3% to $64.70 on U.S. threats against Iranian oil, but ended the week lower on trade and supply worries. U.S. 10-year yields climbed to 4.48%, 2-year to 3.96%, while Japan’s 10-year yield rebounded to 1.30%.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate by 25bps to 3.50% in April, as expected, bringing total cuts since August to 200bps. This is the lowest level since October 2022, with global trade war concerns. Inflation remains within the 1–3% target, and core inflation aligns with medium-term goals. However, external trade barriers pose downside risks. Annual inflation was 2.2% in Q4 2024, the lowest since Q1 2021, while GDP grew 0.7% after two prior quarterly contractions.

US CPI (Mar)
U.S. inflation fell to 2.4% in March from 2.8%, below the 2.6% forecast, marking the lowest since September. Gasoline prices dropped 9.8%, while natural gas rose 9.4%. Inflation eased for housing (4% vs 4.2%), used cars (0.6% vs 0.8%), and transport (3.1% vs 6%). Food inflation rose to 3% (from 2.6%). Monthly CPI fell 0.1%, the first decline since May 2020, against a forecasted 0.1% rise. Core inflation dropped to 2.8%, with core CPI rising just 0.1% MoM, below the expected 0.3%.

Initial Jobless Claims
Initial claims rose by 4,000 to 223,000 in early April, in line with expectations. Continuing claims dropped by 43,000 to 1.85 million, exceeding the 1.88 million forecast, indicating some recovery in hiring. Federal program claims, closely watched due to DOGE firings, rose slightly to 508, the lowest under Trump. Many terminated employees remain temporarily ineligible due to severance packages.

UK GDP (Feb)
The UK economy grew 0.1% in Q4 2024, unchanged from initial estimates, following flat growth in Q3. Services rose 0.1% (vs 0.2% initial), driven by health and social care. Construction rose 0.3%, while industrial output fell 0.4%, less than the prior -0.8% estimate, led by metals (-2.9%) and transport equipment (-2%). Household spending was revised up to 0.1%, while government spending increased by 0.5% on higher activity in public services.

US PPI (Mar)
U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.4% in March, the first drop since October 2023, defying a 0.3% rise forecast. Goods prices dropped 0.9%, led by an 11% fall in gasoline. Services fell 0.2%, dragged by machinery and vehicle wholesaling (-1.3%). Air travel, retail, and lodging also declined. Core PPI rose just 0.1% MoM (vs 0.3% expected). Annual PPI eased to 2.7% (vs 3.3% forecast), and core PPI slowed to 3.3% from 3.5%.

German CPI (Mar)
Germany’s annual inflation eased to 2.2% in March, down from 2.3% in February, the slowest since November. Services inflation slowed to 3.5%, and energy prices dropped 2.8%. Food inflation picked up to 3% (from 2.4%). Core inflation eased to 2.6%, the lowest since June 2021. Monthly CPI rose 0.3%, following 0.4% in February. The EU-harmonised rate fell to 2.3% YoY (from 2.6%), with a 0.4% MoM increase.

Currencies
The U.S. dollar index dropped to around 99, its lowest level in nearly three years, as escalating trade tensions and economic uncertainty drove investors away from U.S. assets. On Friday, China retaliated against Washington’s tariff hike by increasing levies on U.S. goods to 125%, up from 84%, after the U.S. imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese imports. The dollar recorded a 2% weekly loss, its steepest since November 2022, with fears of prolonged trade disruption and recession risks.

The euro surged above $1.14 for the first time since late January 2022, supported by broad dollar weakness and improving investor sentiment toward the Eurozone.

The single currency is on track for a weekly gain of over 3.5%, with traders increasingly shifting exposure away from U.S. assets due to heightened geopolitical risks.
In the UK, the British pound climbed past $1.30, approaching the six-month high of $1.31 seen on April 3. The rally followed a strong 0.5% growth in February GDP, which was five times higher than forecast, driven by gains across all major sectors. Despite the upbeat data, traders have slightly lowered their expectations for Bank of England rate cuts this year, now pricing in 66 basis points of easing for 2025, down from 79bps earlier.

The Japanese yen strengthened to its highest level since late September 2024, reflecting increased demand for trusted assets as global trade tensions intensified. The yen’s advance was also supported by a sharp selloff in U.S. Treasuries, as investors moved capital into traditionally safer currencies amid rising market volatility.

Commodities
Gold jumped above $3,250 per ounce on Friday, hitting a new record as safe-haven demand rose sharply with U.S.-China trade tensions and a weaker dollar. China hiked tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from April 12, following Washington’s 145% hike, affecting nearly $700 billion in trade and driving investors into gold.

Silver also gained, rising above $31.20 for a third session, supported by broad dollar weakness, trade fears, and soft U.S. core inflation data, which boosted expectations for Fed rate cuts. The Fed’s silence on long-term yield control added to the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Brent crude rose 2.3% to $64.70 on Friday after the U.S. signaled plans to block Iranian oil exports. However, trade tensions and an unexpected OPEC+ output increase weighed on sentiment. Brent still ended the week down 1%, after a 10% drop the previous week.

Equities
U.S. stocks ended the week with a strong rally. The Nasdaq gained around 7% last week, while the Dow rose 5%, and the S&P 500 added 6%. Apple was one of the standout stocks, leading the rally with a 6% gain, while Nvidia shined with a remarkable 17% increase.

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Weekly Analysis By ZitaPlus Research Team (21-25 April 2025)

Dollar Hits 3-Year Low; Gold Surges
The US dollar index closed near a 3-year low, pressured by trade policy uncertainty, Trump’s Fed criticism, and easing inflation.

The euro briefly hit its highest since Jan 2022 before easing after the ECB cut rates and flagged weak growth. The pound gained on cooling inflation, while the yen hovered near 7-month highs on steady Japan inflation and tariff concerns.

Gold ended at $3,226 after hitting records, driven by safe-haven demand and trade fears. Powell signaled caution on rate cuts due to tariff-driven inflation, prompting profit-taking. Silver slipped to $32.50 as trade tensions escalated.

Brent crude rose 3% to $67, up 5% weekly, lifted by US-Iran tensions and OPEC+ cut plans, despite growth concerns.
US 10-year yields fell to 4.33% after a 90-day tariff delay; 2-year yields dropped to 3.80%. In Europe, German 10-year yields slid to 2.48% following the ECB’s rate cut.

China GDP (YoY) (Q1)
China’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, exceeding expectations and marking its fastest pace in 18 months. Growth was driven by government stimulus, robust industrial output, strong retail sales, and a drop in unemployment. Exports surged in March as firms front-loaded shipments ahead of incoming U.S. tariffs. While officials described the quarter as a “steady start,” rising trade tensions with the U.S. have increased expectations for further policy support.

UK CPI (YoY) (Mar)
UK inflation slowed to 2.6% in March from 2.8% in February, below both market forecasts and BoE projections. The decline was led by lower prices in recreation, transport, and accommodation, alongside continued easing in food inflation. Fuel prices dropped sharply, though clothing and footwear costs rose with the seasonal shift. Monthly CPI rose 0.3%, while core inflation edged down to 3.4% from 3.5%.

EU CPI (YoY) (Mar)
Eurozone annual inflation eased to 2.2% in March from 2.3% in February, in line with flash estimates. Energy and services inflation declined, while food inflation ticked higher. Core inflation dropped to 2.4%, the lowest since October 2021. Inflation fell in Germany, Spain, and Belgium, remained flat in France, and rose in Italy.

US Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
U.S. retail sales rose 1.4% in March, the strongest monthly gain since January 2023, topping forecasts. The increase was driven by a 5.3% jump in auto sales, likely ahead of new tariffs. Excluding autos, sales were up 0.5%. Broad gains were seen in restaurants, electronics, and building materials, while gas station and furniture sales declined. Core retail sales rose 0.4%.

Deposit Facility Rate (Apr)
The ECB cut its main interest rates by 25bps, lowering the deposit rate to 2.25% and the refinancing rate to 2.40%. The decision reflects growing confidence that inflation is falling back toward the 2% target, as wage growth and price pressures ease. However, the ECB maintained a cautious tone, citing global trade risks and weak growth, and emphasized a data-driven approach going forward.

Initial Jobless Claims
U.S. initial jobless claims dropped by 9,000 to 215,000 in mid-April, the lowest in two months and below expectations. However, continuing claims rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million. Federal claims increased slightly to 548, the second-lowest since Trump took office, though recent DOGE layoffs may not yet show up due to severance delays.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
The Philadelphia Fed Index plunged to -26.4 in April from 12.5 in March, far below the forecast of 2 and marking the sharpest drop since April 2023. New orders fell to -34.2, the weakest since April 2020, while shipments and employment remained soft. Despite ongoing price pressures, future growth expectations remained subdued.

Currencies
The US dollar index ended the week near a three-year low, pressured by trade uncertainty, soft inflation, and criticism from President Trump. Markets are increasingly concerned about the dollar’s global reserve status.

The euro climbed to its highest since January 2022 before easing to $1.1340 after the ECB cut rates by 25bps to 2.25% and softened its policy language. The ECB also cited trade tensions and slowing growth.

The British pound gained further, helped by cooling UK inflation, with CPI at 2.6% and services inflation down to 4.7%. Markets now expect 86bps of BoE rate cuts this year, with odds rising for a fourth cut in December.

The Japanese yen held near seven-month highs as March core CPI rose to 3.2%. The BoJ is expected to hold rates at 0.5%, though U.S. tariffs could pressure Japan’s export-driven outlook.

Commodities

Gold ended the week at $3,226 per ounce, easing from record highs reached earlier as investors took profits amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. Safe-haven demand had surged on news that the Trump administration is considering new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, while delaying others on autos and certain tech products. Fed Chair Powell signaled a cautious stance, warning tariffs could raise inflation and slow growth. Market focus also remains on U.S.-China trade talks, with China expressing conditional willingness to resume negotiations.

Silver closed near $32.50 per ounce, retreating from two-week highs following a strong rally. It tracked gold’s movements, supported by trade-driven safe-haven demand before profit-taking kicked in. President Trump ordered a new probe into tariffs on key goods, prompting China to demand a clearer U.S. commitment before restarting talks. Powell’s warning on inflation and economic risks from tariffs added to market caution.

Brent crude rose nearly 3% to $67 per barrel on Thursday, supported by new U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil sector and a China-based refinery. OPEC+ also committed to deeper cuts by members like Iraq and Kazakhstan. Despite this, major institutions like OPEC, IEA, and JPMorgan lowered their oil demand outlooks with U.S.-China slowdown concerns. U.S. crude inventories rose, but gasoline and distillate stocks declined. Brent marked a 5% weekly gain, its first in three weeks.

Equities
U.S. stock indices reversed early-week gains and finished lower as trade tensions resurfaced. The Nasdaq fell 2%, the S&P 500 lost 1.2%, and the Dow declined 2.5%. Meta led losses with a 12.8% drop, followed by Nvidia (-7%), Google (-3%), and Amazon (-7%). In contrast, Apple and Netflix outperformed, both rising around 4% on the week.