My name is Maurizio Orsini, I’m an italian indipendent trader working in the Forex market with the Price Action Daily Method. I use to analize my charts with no indicator or oscillators but just the most important thing…the PRICE! I work with weekly and daily time frame (max H4) realizing 15-20 trades each month, respecting in a strictly way the rules of my method and especially my money mangement. I use to analize each evening, (italian time) in only 30 minutes, the Forex market searching for a signal of my trading plan and I open a position after having analized the weekly and correlation situation.
I’m not a scalper so I don’t spend my time in front of my PC…I just analize for a few minutes the situation, after Wall Street closed, and if the price shows me a good opportunity (also in term of risk/reward) I take a position otherwise I just turn off my trading platform and wait the nex day!
I hope you’ll enjoy my “humble opinion” and forgive my bad english.
I insert my last analysis (realized yesterday at 23hr italian time) and wish you all a nice trading time!
Cordially, Maurizio
WORST OUTLOOK FOR EUROPE
Hi everybody,
yesterday it was confirmed what we were expecting in the equity markets and macro level. Stock indexes closed above parity (except Milano) and the two central banks of Europe and England left interest rates unchanged (respectively 0.75% and 0.50%). The words of Mario Draghi of the ECB, on a slower growth in the euro area and a slow rise of economy beginning by the second half of 2013, have weakened euro and indexes.
In Forex market we had another day of uncertainty for Gold and Silver, otherwise we had a growth for sterling and, expecially, for the New Zealand dollar.
ANALYSIS
NZD/USD: Kiwi continues its strenght time by breaking, in intraday, the resistance level at 0.8310 (reaching 0.8350) and then turnes down to the same level. We are in a short area and I’ll look for sell signal to catch the bearish movement of the lateral medium term channel.
EUR/USD: I have a short position after a H4 bearish signal of my method in the resistance key level. I entered last wednesday (at 1,3088) with a target of 1,2870 and an inicial stop loss at 1,3145. Now I moved my stop loss at +122 pips (at 1,2967 = zero rik trading!) and I think in closing this position before the weekly market closed.
Today we all were expecting the U.S. macro data of NFPR wich came out with the positive news of a lower unemployment. This led to a rise in the indices and the Usd while, on the other hand, made the euro weaker.
The University of Michigan Confidence fell at 74,5 worse than expected.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the operation short, opened on Wednesday signal H4, has been closed at market (a few pips above the take profit) with a very good profit. The final risk/reward ratio was almost 1:4!(You can see the video on my Youtube channel Maurizio Orsini - Quiforex)
Now in 1.2950 area we can consider a new short entry with the presence of clear trading signal.
Eur/Aud: the 1.2350 support area has been broken. We might expect a continuation of the bearish movement down to the next support level of 1.2170. I wait for a pullback on the former support just broken to find a short opportunity.
Usd/Cad: it’s quoting near 0.9880 support area. If the price will show a bullish pattern I’ll evaluate a long entry with the target on 1.0030.
Gold: one more indecision session. The area $1680 - $1670 remains the best opportunity to find a Long entry according to the long-term bullish trendline.
It could be anything. What’s important is you come up with a few scenarios and trade the one which you think has the best chance of playing out.
Your chart does not have prices. it’s possible price will consolidate between the two blue lines or at/near that first blue line (the one touching price).
Usd Cad is still above the support area of 0,9880 and there I would like to find a bullish signal if it won’t breakdown the level.
Anyway this currency pair is a bit messy like its name (Loony)…so I prefer to trade only clear and strong trading signals!
Have a nice day
Maurizio
this week starts with great caution for equity markets, waiting for the European Summit for the Bank Union, but also begins with a heavy downward for Milan Stock Index.
As we already have been thinking in the weekend, the news of the resignation of Mario Monti (Italian Prime Minister) and the imminent coming back of Berlusconi led a sell-off on the list of Milan, a spread that flew upward (up to 380 points this morning, from 280 of 5 days ago!), as well as an increase in the yield of italian government bonds (and for correlation of Spanish ones). Europe does not see kindly at all the return of the previous Italian prime minister, due both to the low appreciation between the European governments and his “electoral” policy against spending cuts which could destroy what has been built in the recent months by the more esteemed Monti and his Brussell colleagues.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Cad: this pair just closed the strong downgap realized at the beginning of last night on the 1.2780 level. The retracement of this resistance area will take me to look for one of my short set up, in order to go back into the bearish short-term trend with the first target on the 1,26 support level.
discounted by the time the news of the resignation of Mr.Monti, stock indices rose with good movements in European stock markets also supported by the German ZEW index macro data higher than expected (6.9 in December).
We had a bullish day in the U.S. market too, which has been waiting for tomorrow’s decision on interest rates and the speech of Fed Governor Bernanke (who could also speak about Fiscal Cliff).
USD had a weakly day (such as Gold and Silver) in contrast to high-yielding currencies which are moving up to resistance areas with many currency pairs.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Usd: the bullish force pushes euro up to area in 1.30. The new resistance level where I’ll look for a short signal is on area 1.3030. We’ll see tomorrow how Fed’s decision will influence this pair.
Europe continues to send indirect warnings to Italy on the continuation of structural reforms (in addition to the appreciations to former Prime Minister Monti, the last one came from german minister of finance Mr. Schaeuble) that show apprehension between the heads of state of the euro area on a possible return of Italian “old style” politics. Greece, meanwhile, announced the arrival over the quota 30 billion for the Buyback of its debt, emphasizing that especially hedge funds have been those who were more involved. The whole operation will generate a decrease in the greek debt of about 20 billion euro.
From the United States we had the Fed communication of interest rate with the maintenance of the previous level (0.25%), with the decision to buy (since January 2013 and for each month) 45 bilion Dollars of Treasury and the words of its Governor Bernanke about the moderate expansion of the economy and the absence of tools to offset Fiscal Cliff which, in the short term, would be very costly.
Tomorrow we’ll have the decision of interest rates in Switzerland (with the usual level of PEG at 1.20 to the Euro) and the monthly report of the ECB.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Gbp: the euro had another bullish session and this pair approaches the area of resistance at 0.81. Tomorrow I will consider, even in the H4, a bearish signal to enter in a short movement with first target on 0.7950 level. Otherwise, in case of upward break, I will wait for the arrival in the next important resistance area of 0.8150.
after a 17-hours long meeting, the Ecofin has reached a historic agreement on the Bank Supervisor. All finance ministers decided to award, from March 2014, the control of european banks to the ECB, in line with a true european integration and a gradual increase in the ECB’s independence as U.S. Fed. In the same context, it was definitively ratified the aid package to Greece (in relation to the Buy Back operation) that will receive in the next days 34 billion euros (plus another 15 billion in the 1st quarter 2013 ).
Switzerland’s central bank, meanwhile, decided to keep interest rates unchanged and reiterated the goal of preventing the appreciation of the Swiss franc (and therefore the level of 1.20 as minimum price against the euro).
ECB monthly report, this morning, announced negative datas: the last quarter of 2012 has shown a major weakness in the economy and it is expected an increase of unemployment rate in the short term; the situation should gradually improve in late 2013.
Lastly, we had a weak session for stock markets, an stable euro and a rise of the USDollar.
ANALYSIS
Gold: bad day for the yellow metal that breaks $1.700 drawing to a price level that is very interesting! Infact, the whole area between $ 1670 and $ 1690 is to be kept absolutely monitored in order to find a Buy setup according to the long-term bullish trendline.
That’all for today, see you tomorrow!
Maurizio Orsini
another week of Forex trading is over with important macroeconomic news from the United States (still waiting for the Fiscal Cliff) and Europe. Sunday will be a very important day for Japan, with the election of the new premier, and I “see” an increase in Yen volatility due to the consequences of the monetary policy that will be realized in case of Mr. Shinzo Abe’s victory.
Here you can see some interesting chart situation for the next week!
Aud/Nzd: after touching 1.2520 resistance area, the price closed below 1.25 . I will look for a possible return on the previous resistance level to find the opportunity to sell at a better price.
Eur/Gbp: the price is rising up to 0.8160 resistance area where, in the next few days, I will try to find a short set up with first profit target in 0.8090 level.
Eur/Usd: the U.S. production macro data has led to the up movement of the most important pair. The price has reached the important resistance area of 1.3170 where I will look for (even in H4 tf) a short signal of my trading method to enter a downward movement with first target in area 1.30 .
Usd/Yen: in the resistance level 83.70 the price reacts with a bearish candle. I won’t trade this signal because of the uncertainty that japanese elections will generate. According to the medium and short term uptrend I prefer to wait for a pullback to 81.80 support area to find a Long signal.
Very useful information. By looking at your charts you are consider higher time frames for trading. I am also getting use to higher time frames at the moment. Please Keep posting. Have a nice weekend to you as well.
i think you are overly optimistic on AUD/NZD, that last candle with that long tail gives you an idea how volatile it is
and also it’s near the oversold level now, i think a better entry price would be 1.258-1.26
when your shorting so near to the channel, u either need a super wide stop or you have a good chance of getting whipsawed
either way, it’s not too profitable strategy with the risk involved
so my suggestion is wait til it retraces back further to short
also 1.252 is a very small resistance if you can call it a resistance(i dont consider it a resistance), 1.27 is the actual resistance level it broke out of, 1.24 is the coming support
if you do think about entering around 1.252, what would your SL be at? and TP?
anyway, it’s just my opinion, not complaining or arguing just wanna share my own opinion and see what you think
Hi NewbTrader,
don’t worry I like sharing opinions!
I sincerly think that the downtrend is so strong (right now it’s opening in gap down!) to consider an entry also in the area I wrote (1,2520) but ONLY in presence of one of my trading signals and according to that, posible, set up I will fix my stop loss (take profit would be the next important support area on 1,24.
About the resistence area…sorry but I don’t agree with you. A resistence is a price level where sellers are so strong to push down the price which finds difficulties in its going up. If you see the daily chart you certainly will realize that on 1,2520 level the price had an important reaction last friday (as a resistance), in november 2, in mid-october and april 4 (as a support)! So 1,2520, in my opinion, is an important price level like 1,2660 and 1,24 where we can look for a price action action set up but, as I told you,…it’s only my opinion!!
I wish you a nice sunday and a good trading! Greetings, Maurizio
stock market seems to feel the spirit of Christmas and closed with indecision, also waiting for news about the U.S. Fiscal Cliff.
Yesterday, as I announced in my weekly video last Friday, the Liberal Democrat Shinzo Abe won japanese election confirming its expansionary monetary policy ideas. This has led to a strong sell-off in the Yen and caused for all major pairs, with which it is compared, a downgap opening: next important appointment is for Thursday, with the interest rate decision by the BoJ to understand how Mr.Abe’s idea will be developed.
Tomorrow, from Australia, we expect the Minute of the RBA to check its position after the rate cut that just took place.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Nzd: we had another day of moderate rise with this cross that is now on the intermediate resistance area of 1.5630 where we might find tomorrow a possible short setup. The target of an eventual return of the downmove is the support area 1.5470.
another positive day for equity markets influenced by the last bullish performance of Wall Street (which discounted the probable agreement about Fiscal Cliff within this month) and let Euro run over resistences.
The RBA’s Minute has raised, today, the possibility of an extension of the actual expansionary policy, with other possible interest rate cuts during 2013.
Good news for the Spanish government bonds sale (fully placed and with a lower interest!) which has strengthened not only the Ibex of Madrid, but the Euro currency too.
ANALYSIS
Eur/Cad: the Euro bullish movement continues and, against the Canadian Dollar, reached the important resistance area of 1.3050. In this level I will wait for a possible Sell setup of trend reversal, considering as a first target the area 1.2750. Otherwise, in case of break up (confirmed) I will try to get into a possible upmove to the new resistance level at 1.3240.
Have a nice trading everyone!
Arrivederci, Maurizio
also this day shows us euphoria in european financial markets which are discounting the possible U.S. agreement between Republicans and Democrats. The euro continues its “flight” in the first part of the trading session (against the dollar has already reached the top level of May 2012) pushed up not only by a weak Usd, after Fed QE4, but also by the positive news of this morning about IFO data in Germany (better than expected).
In the Minute of this morning, the governor of the Bank of England, Mr.Miles, said that the decision (in December 5) against the adding of asset purchase has been voted by eight of the nine members of the Council and that the only vote against has been his one (moved by his conviction to create a greater incentive for production without generating a price increase).
Tomorrow let’s be careful, for those who have positions in yen, to the BoJ rate decision and the further indication about a possible new quantitative easing.
ANALYSIS
US Oil: the weakness of USD is strengthening WTI oil that comes close to the top of short/medium term laterality. In the resistance level $ 89.50 / $ 90 (if it won’t be broken!) I’ll try to look for a short setup of my trading system to enter into a possible bearish movement with a first target in area $ 85.
