Weekly Classical Outlook: Euro Weekly Close Gives Bulls Upper Hand

• Euro weekly close gives bulls upper hand
• Dollar/Yen should find solid resistance above 95.00
• Cable still holding below key medium-term fib retracement
• Dollar/Swiss continues to consolidate just over key support

EUR/USD – At present it is unclear whether we are in the process of carving out a medium-term lower top by the yearly highs at 1.4340 ahead of the next downside extension below 1.3750, or are in the process of putting in a fresh higher low above 1.2885 ahead of an eventual break back above 1.4340. A compelling case can be made on both sides and we anxiously await a break of either of these key levels for a clearer directional bias. In the interim, the 100-Week SMA has done a good job of capping gains. The latest weekly candle does however give bulls the upper hand. STRATEGY: SIDELINED FOR NOW; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL

USD/JPY – There is nothing bullish in the medium-term or longer-term for this pair with the market locked in an inter-day downtrend off of the 2009 highs by 101.45 and in a much more defined longer-term down-trend since 2007. We look for a fresh lower top now by 101.45 to be confirmed on an eventual break back below 87.15 over the coming weeks. Any rallies above 95.00 should therefore be used as good sell opportunities. Also look for a break back under 91.75 in the coming week to accelerate declines. STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE; LOOK TO SELL

GBP/USD – After stalling by the 61.8% fib retrace off of the major 1.8670-1.3500 move, the market could be attempting to carve a medium-term top by 1.6745 ahead of a significant drop back towards the 1.5000 level at a minimum. Overbought weekly stochastics are confirming the need for a pullback, with the indicator on the verge of a negative/bearish cross. However, bears might want to wait for confirmation which will be given on a break back below critical support by 1.5800. Only back above 1.6745 ultimately negates. STRATEGY: SIDELINED FOR NOW; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL

USD/CHF – The market has mounted a slow and steady recovery since posting historic lows below parity in 2008, but is under pressure over the past several weeks with the latest consolidation underway just over 1.0500. But for the recovery structure to remain intact, the market needs to hold above the December 2008 1.0410 lows. A 2009 low was recently made by 1.0590 and we look for the latest consolidation to hold above this level ahead of a fresh upside break beyond 1.1025 which offers itself as medium-term resistance. STRATEGY: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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