•Euro attempting to carve major head & shoulder top
•Dollar/Yen seen breaking higher following consolidation
•Cable in the process of forming major double top
•Dollar/Swiss price action looks like inverse head & shoulders
•Dollar/Cad also carving inverse head & shoulders base
•Australian Dollar 1-2-3 top set-up points to deeper setbacks
•New Zealand Dollar stalls by 61.8% fib; lower top sought below 0.6600
EUR/USD
EUR/USD – The latest rebound has stalled out by the 61.8% fib retracement off of the 1.4340-1.3805 move and former support turned resistance in the 1.4100 area, and a fresh lower top could now be in place ahead of the next drop through 1.3800. A closer look at an 8-hourly chart, shows the formation of a major head & shoulders top, that if triggered, would ultimately project a more significant decline back towards a measured move objective by 1.3250 over the coming weeks. Only back above Wednesday’s high at 1.4145 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO SELL
USD/JPY
USD/JPY – The break of shorter-term trend-line resistance off of the 2009 highs on June 5 likely opens the door to additional upside over the medium-term, with any setbacks now seen well supported on dips to 97.00, which acts as previous resistance now turned support. Look for a higher low to carve out in the lower 97.00’s ahead of fresh upside over the coming days back above 98.90 and towards the more critical falling trend-line resistance just over 100.00. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY
GBP/USD
GBP/USD – The latest rallies above 1.6600 are not seen sustainable and a double top scenario could play out on the daily chart with a break below neckline support at 1.5800 to open a measured move objective back to the 1.5000 area over the coming weeks. The bearish reversal day on Friday helps to confirm our negative outlook and hopes for a major double top. Only back above 1.6665 concerns. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO SELL
USD/CHF
USD/CHF – Setbacks have stalled out by 1.0700, which also coincides with previous resistance now turned support, and a fresh higher low is now sought out, to be confirmed on a break back above 1.0990 over the coming sessions. The formation on the 8-hourly chart has taken the shape of a potential inverse head & shoulders pattern that ultimately projects upside back towards the 1.1400 area over the coming weeks. Only back under 1.0650 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY
USD/CAD
USD/CAD – Appears to be attempting to carve out a base with the market taking the form of a potential inverse head & shoulders pattern. Look for a close above 1.1200 to confirm the bullish pattern formation and open significant upside over the coming weeks back towards the 1.1800 area. Only back under 1.0940 gives reason for concern. Strategy: SIDELINED FOR NOW; LOOK TO BUY
AUD/USD
AUD/USD – Gains appear to be stalling out shy of the 2009 highs by 0.8265, and by the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 0.8265-0.7825 move, with a lower top sought out at 0.8240 ahead of a fresh drop back below 0.7825 over the coming days. A potential 1-2-3 topping pattern or double top scenario could be playing out as well, with a break below 0.8060 to accelerate declines back towards the neckline at 0.7825, below which opens a more significant depreciation back towards 0.7400 over the coming weeks. Strategy: LOOK TO SELL
NZD/USD
NZD/USD – The market appears to have carved out an interim top by 0.6600 with the latest rebound out from 0.6155 classed as corrective. These gains have now stalled out by the 61.8% fib retrace off of the 0.6600-0.6155 move and a lower top is now sought out by 0.6470 ahead of the next downside extension to be confirmed on a break back below 0.6155. Ultimately, only a break back above 0.6600 negates bearish outlook. Position: SHORT @0.6450 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; REVISED STOP @0.6450.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com. If you wish to receive Joel’s reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail [email protected] and you will be added to the “distribution” list.
Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
“Tech Talk” – A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
“Morning Slices” – Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes “Trade of the Day”).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
“Indicator of the Day” – A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
“Cross Country” – A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)
“Scandi Daily” – A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact [email protected] if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
“Daily Classical” – A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)