Weekly Discussion [Week of January 13 - 19, 2019]

Yes, count me in.

In summary

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GBP is suppose to be rising in preparation for the fall. Why is it falling??

Was expecting a roller coaster effect today.

If the vote does not pass and shows heavy defeat for Mrs May, then it shows government is not in control, therefore total uncertainty. The possibility of no-deal brexit is on the cards which means very bad economy, thus falling pound. Traders realising probability of vote not passing is very high, therefore bad for the pound. After the vote, if the possibility of another referendum comes into play and increases then that has the increasing possibility of the UK abandoning the Brexit, which is good for the economy and the pound will strengthen. Thus right now £ is falling (so too is the Euro).

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what was up with that 100+ pip pullback for most of the gbp pairs

My strategies don’t play nicely with big news events. I stopped all trading on Monday and am considering when to start again. I can’t help but wonder if the markets will respond wildly if the PM or any MPs make a speech about Brexit tomorrow.
Anyone else holding off on trading until Wednesday or later?
When do you think it will be safe?
Personally, I might just sit the rest of this week out.

I know, I expected it to continue down, but I exited my short position just before the vote, I realised it would be too volatile, so just pocketed what I had. Turned out to be a wise decision. The news articles trying to fathom why it shot up don’t seem to make head or tail of it, I think it could just be that the market ran out of sellers…

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There is a vote of no confidence in the government coming, so there should be wild volatility. There could be a new government, possibly with no clear leader or winner, a sort of grand coalition, that could really stir uncertainty as the future would be totally unclear. I think it will be wild for weeks, if not months to come with cable.

Good points… decided to drop my risk on all GBP pairs to minimal for now, but resume all other pairs as normal.
That possible no confidence vote tomorrow has me a little worried. Going to keep a close eye on it…

@Quadricolor I done the same as you, got out around 20 pips before it shot up. Makes me wonder just how many shorts took their profits and ran around the same time. Could explain the price rise. All thinking the same thing :thinking::joy:

Anybody get today’s newsletter and doing something with EUR/USD?

Here’s the chart Big Pippin showed:

Thinking of hopping in with a long trade. Anyone else?

Same. Too unpredictable.

Yes, I think a fair few! Hopefully plenty of traders made nice profits this day.

I’m watching still. It seems too quiet. Perhaps I will wait till Monday and review it, I’m looking for more confirmations at the moment.

To be honest, I hate the cable or any sterling pair just now unless there’s strong upcoming news.

It (for me) has a tendency to surprise me, but when there’s news I’ll trade it. The BIG moves tend to be negative so it’s mostly predictable especially if there’s strong resistance a reasonable distance away for a bounce and reverse position.

Love it when I get that :grin:

Just reviewing this set-up. Could be a good trade now for next week, maybe shift this topic to the new weekly discussion on Monday? I’m eyeing the lower support channel for a solid support to go long with areas 1 and 2 of interest, possibly with a break downwards alternate short possibility.

Here’s a quick chart:

Good call on watching EURUSD support around 1.1330. Price has bounced quite a few times there in the last 6 months.

I like everyone’s comments on Cable. I’ve been burned quite a few times by this pair and not always by news. Still, the absolute worst is when anyone says ‘Brexit’.
I feel like I am living inside the movie “Monty Python and the Holy Grail” and my account is under constant seige by “The Knights Who Say ‘Brexit’”! (they recently said ‘Ni!’) :smiley:

My trading is 99% automated, so news can be difficult. Scheduled news can be avoided. So, here’s hoping for no surprise news this week! Cheers!

Still quiet today. Any setups you’re looking at for this week ahead?

Ah yes they do have a new topic now. Following this one! Might go long also.

Yes, going long on EURUSD now, still working on my setups, going long on a non technical, news based trade on favourable (long) GBPUSD setup based on the idea that a new UK referendum is now more likely. Also bearish on USD in general because of impasse of US gov shutdown. I read one of Trumps books and based on personality reflected in his writings I believe he will be so stubborn that the US government closure will roll on for months, if not longer.