[I] February 12, 2007 - February 16, 2007[/I]
[B] View on USD/JPY: steep turn[/B]
The market brings surprises. In spite of USD/JPY course fall till the new correction minimum of 120.00 in the middle of the week nothing could prevent it to rise until 121.70. From the technical side we watch a rebound from 119.90 as the earlier broken out top of 2006 which now classically comes out as a support. And now a decline under 120.00 can find a postponement…
Last week the correction minimums were renewed again and the pair achieved 120.00, but could not break out a limit of 119.90. The level classically comes out as a support because earlier it was a resistance of 2006. Medium USD/JPY pair increase over 120.70 brought to a further rise and reaching for 121.70 by the end of the week. The situation is interesting and uncertain. Our second script was fulfilled: (30%) “Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 121.80 area”. The correction goes on and a rebound from the important support makes for further USD/JPY course increase.
[B]Script 1 (40%):[/B] Side exchange fluctuations within the 119.90 - 122.20 area.
The pair is remaining in the current fluctuations range 119.90-122.20, in which it has been contained for a month already and can trade there for a week or two until the high or low limits do not be broken out.
[B]Script 2 (30%):[/B] An upward trend to 125.70.
A quick breakout of 122 shape up is required for this script. In this case the former resistance area of 122.00/20 will come out as a support next. The target is 125.70.
[B]Script 3 (30%):[/B] A downward trend to 119.00.
A breakout of the support area of 120.00/20 down is required for this script. Then this area will come out as a resistance. The nearest target is 118.50/119.00 area. This script may designate for fluctuations for the next few months and lead to deeper fall in the future.
121.90 - the resistance projection line from the January’s top.
122.20 - the January, 2007 maximum
125.80 - the local 2002 year resistance
135.00 - the longstanding maximums level in the beginning of 2002 year
120.50 - the estimated line support area according to Jan/Feb 2007 minimums.
119.90/120.00 - the February support area and the broken up maximum of 2006 year
118.90 - the important supports lines region
118.00 - the January, 2007 minimum