- Fed rate hike odds for September 16 jumped from ~60% to nearly 85% this week after hot CPI/PPI and a blowout August jobs report (162K vs. ~55K expected). That’s the fastest repricing of the year, and it dragged everything else down with it.
- Stocks logged their fourth losing week in a row S&P down ~0.8%, Dow off 1.6%, Nasdaq down 0.7%, small caps hit hardest. Friday’s bounce snapped a four-day losing streak, but the weekly close still reads as pre-FOMC de-risking.
- Roughly $32 billion left US equity funds this week, the biggest outflow since mid-December, with large-caps alone shedding over $40 billion. That’s real institutional positioning, not just headline noise.
- Gold and silver sold off alongside stocks instead of acting as a hedge, unusual for a stress week. It signals traders are treating this as a rates repricing story rather than classic risk-off panic.
- Next stop is Wednesday’s FOMC decision plus the updated dot plot, which sets the tone through October and December too. Expect volatility to stay elevated until it’s out.