The coming week will be pretty crowded with economic data, therefore traders should be prepared for more volatility than usual. Two policy meetings are scheduled, Bank of Canada’s on Wednesday and Bank of England’s on Thursday. The Inflation Report for U.S., UK and Eurozone are coming out, as well as the Chinese GDP.
[B][B]Monday [/B][/B]is pretty quiet with some no market-affecting indicators coming out. In Norway, the inflation report is coming out. In the afternoon, Fed’s William Dudley will give a speech.
Early on [B]Tuesday[/B], the German final inflation report for March will be released – no changes are expected to the preliminary figures. The spotlight of the day, will the [B]UK Consumer Price Index[/B] which is expected to show a slight increase to 0.4% in March from 0.3% before year-over-year.
The UK Retail Price Index for March is also forecasted improve marginally to 1.4% from 1.3% before year-over-year while the month-over-month indicator is forecasted to slow down to 0.3% from 0.5%.
A while later, the NFIB Business Optimism Index from U.S. will add a paintbrush to the labour market picture for March. The Export and Import Prices Indexes are also expected to be released. During the European afternoon, the [B]U.S. Monthly Budget Statement[/B] for March will be closely eyed. Later in the day, the New Zealand Food Price Index for March as well will be released. Overnight, the Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence for April are coming out as well as China’s trade balance.
On [B]Wednesday[/B], there is a slew economic data including BoC Interest Rate Decision, U.S. Retail Sales and Fed’s Beige Book. In the morning, [B]Eurozone’s Industrial Production[/B] is forecasted to show 0.5% decline in February, month-over-month, from an increase of 2.1% in January. Compared to the year before, the production is predicted to slow down to 1.2% from 2.8% in January that succeeded the worst month of the last year, a decline of 0.1%.
The [B]U.S. Retail Sales[/B] are expected to increase by 0.4% month-over-month after two consecutive months of contractions 0.4% and 0.1% in January and February respectively. The Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the Core PPI for March, will be also released. A while after, the U.S. Business Inventories for February are expected to remain flat from a marginal increase of 0.1% prior.
Following the above, traders’ attention turns to [B]Bank of Canada[/B] and its[B] Interest Rate announcement[/B]. No changes are expected to the current monetary policy, however, the press conference will be cautiously watched for comments regarding the rally of the commodity currencies that are apt to the oil prices.
During the European afternoon, Fed’s Beige book will be released revealing the picture of the overall U.S. economic situation. Later in the day, New Zealand’s Business PMI will be out while overnight, the traders will eye Australia’s significant releases. The[B] Consumer Inflation Expectation [/B]for April will be published a while before the[B] Australian employment report[/B] for March. The headline indicator, Unemployment Rate is forecasted to increase slightly at 5.9% versus 5.8% the month before. Employment Change seasonally adjusted is expected to add 20.0K employees from 0.3K in February and a negative number of 7.4K in January, turning the annual total to positive.
[B]Thursday [/B]has also a heavy economic calendar with BoE Policy Meeting, U.S. and UK Consumer Price Indexes to hog the limelight. We start the day with [B]Eurozone’s Inflation Rate[/B] which is expected to meet the first estimations of -0.1% year-over-year in March despite ECB’s easing measures to raise it towards 2%. In comparison to the month before, the consumer prices are estimated to show an increase of 1.2% versus 0.2% the flash figure.
Going to UK, I wouldn’t expect the [B]BoE policy meeting [/B]to change the current monetary policy, however, I would be very interested in checking out the voting pattern of the BoE policymakers. In the last three meeting, the policymaker votes unanimously to keep the cash rate at the record low of 0.5%.
Afterwards, the U.S. weekly jobless claims will be released. The highlight from the U.S. economic indicators is [B]Consumer Price Index[/B] for March that is coming out. The monthly indicator is expected to turn positive to 0.2% from -0.2% before while the yearly indicator to rise to 1.2% from 1.0% prior. It’s worth to mention that U.S. inflation rate showed a robust increase the last months of 2015 that culminated at 1.4% in January. The closest has been the to the central bank 2% target for over 14-months.
In the remaining day, two Fed’s members will have public conferences. Overnight, the [B]Australian Financial Stability Review[/B] will be published. A while later, China will attract market’s interest. The Retail Sales are expected to remain at the same pace of increase for March, 10.4% while no forecasts are available yet for the country’s GDP for the first quarter that is also coming out.
Early on [B]Friday[/B], the Japanese Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, both for February will be released. The two-day IMF Meeting starts. Later on Friday morning, Eurozone’s Trade Balance for February is expected to come out. Shifting to U.S., the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for March will be released.